- A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Integrative Biology, Patterson Laboratories 141, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, USA
Nature 421:37-42. 2003
Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes...
- Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification
Centre for Marine Studies, University of Queensland, St Lucia, 4072 Queensland, Australia
Science 318:1737-42. 2007
..The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving ..
- Ecological responses to recent climate change
Gian Reto Walther
Institute of Geobotany, University of Hannover, Nienburger Str 17, 30167 Hannover, Germany
Nature 416:389-95. 2002
There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments...
- Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs
T P Hughes
Centre for Coral Reef Biodiversity, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia
Science 301:929-33. 2003
..reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others...
- Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans Knöll Strasse 10, D 07745 Jena, Germany
Nature 451:289-92. 2008
- Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present
Earth Sciences Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA
Science 292:686-93. 2001
Since 65 million years ago (Ma), Earth's climate has undergone a significant and complex evolution, the finer details of which are now coming to light through investigations of deep-sea sediment cores...
- Environmental niche equivalency versus conservatism: quantitative approaches to niche evolution
Dan L Warren
Department of Evolution and Ecology, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA
Evolution 62:2868-83. 2008
..We suggest various randomization tests that may prove useful in other areas of ecology and evolutionary biology...
- Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security
Carbon Management and Sequestration Center, Ohio State University Columbus, OH 43210, USA
Science 304:1623-7. 2004
..5 to 1 kg/ha for cowpeas. As well as enhancing food security, carbon sequestration has the potential to offset fossil fuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons of carbon per year, or 5 to 15% of the global fossil-fuel emissions...
- Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota
C Drew Harvell
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
Science 296:2158-62. 2002
..b>Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility...
- A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa
M H Craig
National Malaria Research Programme, South African Medical Research Council, PO Box 17120, Congella, Durban 4013, South Africa
Parasitol Today 15:105-11. 1999
..simple numerical approach to defining distribution of malaria transmission, based upon biological constraints of climate on parasite and vector development...
- One-third of reef-building corals face elevated extinction risk from climate change and local impacts
Kent E Carpenter
IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Programme Species Survival Commission SSC, Biological Sciences, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA
Science 321:560-3. 2008
..Our results emphasize the widespread plight of coral reefs and the urgent need to enact conservation measures...
- Genetic consequences of climatic oscillations in the Quaternary
G M Hewitt
School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 359:183-95; discussion 195. 2004
..Our poor understanding of refugial biodiversity would benefit from further combined fossil and genetic studies...
- Adaptation to climate across the Arabidopsis thaliana genome
Angela M Hancock
Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, 1101 East 57th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, USA
Science 334:83-6. 2011
..We conducted a genome-wide scan to identify climate-adaptive genetic loci and pathways in the plant Arabidopsis thaliana...
- Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics
UMR190, Emergence of Viral Pathologies, Institute of Research for the Development, Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France
PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6:e1470. 2012
..The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system.
- Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States
Frank C Curriero
Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
Am J Epidemiol 155:80-7. 2002
..The model developed in this analysis is potentially useful for projecting the consequences of climate-change scenarios and offering insights into susceptibility to the adverse effects of weather.
- Climate change and human health: present and future risks
Anthony J McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 0200, Australia
Lancet 367:859-69. 2006
..near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions...
- Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts
D R Easterling
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA National Climatic Data Center, 151 Patton Avenue, Asheville, NC 28801, USA
Science 289:2068-74. 2000
One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur...
- Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation
Krijn P Paaijmans
Department of Entomology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Penn State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 107:15135-9. 2010
..analyzing malaria-temperature relations, including those investigating malaria risk and the possible impacts of climate change, are based solely on mean temperatures and extrapolate from functions determined under unrealistic ..
- Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change
M B Davis
Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
Science 292:673-9. 2001
Tree taxa shifted latitude or elevation range in response to changes in Quaternary climate. Because many modern trees display adaptive differentiation in relation to latitude or elevation, it is likely that ancient trees were also so ..
- Phase shifts, herbivory, and the resilience of coral reefs to climate change
Terence P Hughes
Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville QLD 4811, Australia
Curr Biol 17:360-5. 2007
..because of the combined effects of over-fishing, declining water quality, and the direct and indirect impacts of climate change...
- The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948-1994
F C Curriero
Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
Am J Public Health 91:1194-9. 2001
..Because upward trends in heavy precipitation in the United States are projected to increase with climate change, this study sought to quantify the relationship between precipitation and disease outbreaks...
- Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100
O E Sala
Department of Ecology and Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas vinculadas a la Agricultura, Faculty of Agronomy, University of Buenos Aires, Avenida San Martin 4453, Buenos Aires 1417, Argentina
Science 287:1770-4. 2000
..biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes...
- International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project
Anthony J McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Canberra, Australia
Int J Epidemiol 37:1121-31. 2008
..This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes...
- Climate. Blooms like it hot
Hans W Paerl
Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Morehead City, NC 28557, USA
Science 320:57-8. 2008
- A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century
AgroParisTech, UMR 1092, Laboratoire d Etude des Ressources Forêt Bois LERFoB, 14 rue Girardet, F 54000 Nancy, France
Science 320:1768-71. 2008
Spatial fingerprints of climate change on biotic communities are usually associated with changes in the distribution of species at their latitudinal or altitudinal extremes...
- Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population
Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
Science 320:800-3. 2008
Rapid climate change has been implicated as a cause of evolution in poorly adapted populations. However, phenotypic plasticity provides the potential for organisms to respond rapidly and effectively to environmental change...
- Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
J R Soc Interface 9:2708-17. 2012
..Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A...
- Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands
Department of Biological Sciences, State University of New York, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101:2375-80. 2004
..Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is ..
- Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests
Gordon B Bonan
National Center for Atmospheric Research, P O Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA
Science 320:1444-9. 2008
The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition...
- A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007
Simon I Hay
Malaria Public Health and Epidemiology Group, Centre for Geographic Medicine, Kenya Medical Research Institute University of Oxford Wellcome TrustCollaborative Programme, Nairobi, Kenya
PLoS Med 6:e1000048. 2009
..It is exactly 40 y since the last global map of malaria endemicity was published. This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007...
- Climate change. Increasing shrub abundance in the Arctic
US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Alaska, PO Box 35170, Fort Wainwright, Alaska 99703, USA
Nature 411:546-7. 2001
..This expansion will alter the partitioning of energy in summer and the trapping and distribution of snow in winter, as well as increasing the amount of carbon stored in a region that is believed to be a net source of carbon dioxide...
- Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate
Krijn P Paaijmans
Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Entomology, Chemical Ecology Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106:13844-9. 2009
..models are increasingly used to guide allocation of disease control resources and to assess the likely impact of climate change on global malaria burdens...
- Adaptations to climate-mediated selective pressures in humans
Angela M Hancock
Department of Human Genetics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America
PLoS Genet 7:e1001375. 2011
..for selection signals by identifying the SNPs with the strongest correlations between allele frequencies and climate across 61 worldwide populations...
- Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses
Ecological Genetics Research Unit, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, PO Box 65, FI 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland
Mol Ecol 17:167-78. 2008
Rapid climate change is likely to impose strong selection pressures on traits important for fitness, and therefore, microevolution in response to climate-mediated selection is potentially an important mechanism mitigating negative ..
- Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes
Allison L Perry
Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Conservation, School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
Science 308:1912-5. 2005
..Further temperature rises are likely to have profound impacts on commercial fisheries through continued shifts in distribution and alterations in community interactions...
- Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion
Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, The Biophore, Lausanne, Switzerland
Ecol Lett 10:701-9. 2007
..This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ..
- Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: forecasting models using climate variables as predictors
Ecole Pasteur Cnam de Santé Publique, Paris, France
BMC Infect Dis 11:166. 2011
..The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control...
- Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis
A K Githeko
Climate and Human Health Research Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya
Bull World Health Organ 78:1136-47. 2000
Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases...
- Effects of global climate on infectious disease: the cholera model
Erin K Lipp
Center of Marine Biotechnology, University of Maryland Biotechnology Institute, Baltimore, Maryland 21202, USA
Clin Microbiol Rev 15:757-70. 2002
Recently, the role of the environment and climate in disease dynamics has become a subject of increasing interest to microbiologists, clinicians, epidemiologists, and ecologists...
- Diversity and infection prevalence of endosymbionts in natural populations of the chestnut weevil: relevance of local climate and host plants
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology AIST, Tsukuba 305 8566, Japan
Mol Ecol 20:853-68. 2011
..These patterns are discussed in relation to potential host-endosymbiont co-evolution via local adaptation across geographical populations...
- Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity
Michael J Behrenfeld
Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA
Nature 444:752-5. 2006
..driven by changes occurring in the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are tightly coupled to coincident climate variability...
- Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability
Khoa T D Thai
Division of Infectious Diseases, Tropical Medicine and AIDS, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
PLoS Negl Trop Dis 4:e747. 2010
..The epidemiology is complex with long inter-epidemic intervals and endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This study was initiated to investigate dengue transmission dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam...
- The use of 'altitude' in ecological research
Institute of Botany, University of Basel, Schönbeinstrasse 6, Basel, CH 4056, Switzerland
Trends Ecol Evol 22:569-74. 2007
..The confounding of the first category by the latter has introduced confusion in the scientific literature on altitude phenomena...
- Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles
M C Thomson
International Research Institute for Climate and Society IRI, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, New York 10964 8000, USA
Nature 439:576-9. 2006
..Interannual climate variability is an important determinant of epidemics in parts of Africa where climate drives both mosquito vector ..
- Mechanistic niche modelling: combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges
Department of Zoology, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
Ecol Lett 12:334-50. 2009
..As physiological knowledge becomes better integrated into SDMs, we will make more robust predictions of range shifts in novel or non-equilibrium contexts such as invasions, translocations, climate change and evolutionary shifts.
- Multiyear climate variability and dengue--El Niño southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: a longitudinal data analysis
Michael A Johansson
Dengue Branch, Division of Vector Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico, United States of America
PLoS Med 6:e1000168. 2009
..The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a multiyear climate driver of local temperature and precipitation worldwide...
- A weather-driven model of malaria transmission
Moshe B Hoshen
Virtual Population Laboratory, Department of Physics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZE, UK
Malar J 3:32. 2004
b>Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission.
- Soil warming and carbon-cycle feedbacks to the climate system
J M Melillo
The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
Science 298:2173-6. 2002
..changes in soil carbon and nitrogen cycling in order to investigate the consequences of these changes for the climate system...
- Ecological effects of climate fluctuations
Nils Chr Stenseth
Department of Biology, Division of Zoology, University of Oslo, Post Office Box 1050 Blindern, N 0316 Oslo, Norway
Science 297:1292-6. 2002
b>Climate influences a variety of ecological processes. These effects operate through local weather parameters such as temperature, wind, rain, snow, and ocean currents, as well as interactions among these...
- Nitrogen limitation of net primary productivity in terrestrial ecosystems is globally distributed
David S LeBauer
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California 92054, USA
Ecology 89:371-9. 2008
..We tested the hypothesis that N limitation is widespread among biomes and influenced by geography and climate. We used the response ratio (R approximately equal ANPP(N)/ANPP(ctrl)) of aboveground plant growth in fertilized ..
- Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: a role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks
Michael J Hooper
U S Geological Survey, Columbia Environmental Research Center, Columbia, MO, USA
Environ Toxicol Chem 32:32-48. 2013
Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors...
- Plant molecular phylogeography in China and adjacent regions: Tracing the genetic imprints of Quaternary climate and environmental change in the world's most diverse temperate flora
Ying Xiong Qiu
Key Laboratory of Conservation Biology for Endangered Wildlife of the Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Mol Phylogenet Evol 59:225-44. 2011
..the SJFR as a glacial sanctuary for temperate plants, instead revealing profound effects of Quaternary changes in climate, topography, and/or sea level on the current genetic structure of such organisms...
- Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations
Centre d Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR 5175, 1919 Route de Mende, F 34293 Montpellier cedex 5, France
Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 83:357-99. 2008
The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies...
- Cholera dynamics and El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Center of Marine Biotechnology, University of Maryland Biotechnology Institute, 701 East Pratt Street, Suite 236, Columbus Center, Baltimore, MD 21202, USA
Science 289:1766-9. 2000
..Cholera patterns are linked to the previously described changes in the atmospheric circulation of south Asia and, consistent with these changes, to regional temperature anomalies...
- Plague and climate: scales matter
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis CEES, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
PLoS Pathog 7:e1002160. 2011
..Its causative agent Yersinia pestis relies on wild rodent hosts and flea vectors for its maintenance in nature. Climate influences all three components (i.e...
- Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999
Ramakrishna R Nemani
School of Forestry, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59801, USA
Science 300:1560-3. 2003
..Our results indicate that global changes in climate have eased several critical climatic constraints to plant growth, such that net primary production increased 6% (..
- Biogeography and variability of eleven mineral elements in plant leaves across gradients of climate, soil and plant functional type in China
W X Han
Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Ministry of Education, Department of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Ecol Lett 14:788-96. 2011
..of these elements show significant latitudinal and longitudinal trends, driven by significant influences of climate, soil and plant functional type...
- Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species
Jessica J Hellmann
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA
Conserv Biol 22:534-43. 2008
Scientific and societal unknowns make it difficult to predict how global environmental changes such as climate change and biological invasions will affect ecological systems...
- Climate change affects marine fishes through the oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance
Hans O Portner
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Animal Ecophysiology, Postfach 12 01 61, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany
Science 315:95-7. 2007
A cause-and-effect understanding of climate influences on ecosystems requires evaluation of thermal limits of member species and of their ability to cope with changing temperatures...
- Coral-associated bacterial assemblages: current knowledge and the potential for climate-driven impacts
Morgan E Mouchka
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
Integr Comp Biol 50:662-74. 2010
..We suggest that the relationship between coral and their bacterial associates represents a valuable model that can be applied to the broader discipline of invertebrate-microbial interactions...
- The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States
M A McGeehin
Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects, National Center for Environmental Health, U S Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Environ Health Perspect 109:185-9. 2001
..Research is needed to identify critical weather parameters, the associations between heat and nonfatal illnesses, the evaluation of implemented heat response plans, and the effectiveness of urban design in reducing heat retention...
- Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants
A H Fitter
Department of Biology, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
Science 296:1689-91. 2002
..differences in this response will affect both the structure of plant communities and gene flow between species as climate warms...
- Effect of temperature on the development of the aquatic stages of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto (Diptera: Culicidae)
M N Bayoh
School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences Science Laboratories, University of Durham Durham DH1 3LE UK
Bull Entomol Res 93:375-81. 2003
..The utility of these findings is demonstrated by showing that a map where the climate is suitable for the development of aquatic stages of A. gambiae s.s...
- Use of rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana
Madeleine C Thomson
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, New York 10964, USA
Am J Trop Med Hyg 73:214-21. 2005
..We report a methodology for assessing the importance of climate as a driver of inter-annual variability in malaria in Botswana, and provide the evidence base for inclusion of ..
- Temperature extremes and health: impacts of climate variability and change in the United States
Marie S O'Neill
Department of Epidemiology and Environmental Health Dr Neill, University of Michigan School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, Mich, USA
J Occup Environ Med 51:13-25. 2009
We evaluated temperature-related morbidity and mortality for the 2007 U.S. national assessment on impacts of climate change and variability on human health.
- Excess winter mortality in Europe: a cross country analysis identifying key risk factors
J D Healy
Department of Environmental Studies, University College Dublin, Richview Campus, Dublin 14, Ireland
J Epidemiol Community Health 57:784-9. 2003
..Multiple time series data on a variety of risk factors are analysed against seasonal-mortality patterns in 14 European countries to identify key relations Subjects and setting: Excess winter deaths (all causes), 1988-97, EU-14...
- Landscape elements and Hantaan virus-related hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, People's Republic of China
State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, IRSA CAS, Beijing, People s Republic of China
Emerg Infect Dis 13:1301-6. 2007
..These findings have important applications for targeting HFRS interventions in mainland China...
- Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa
Frank C Tanser
Malaria Research Lead Programme, Medical Research Council, Overport, Durban, South Africa
Lancet 362:1792-8. 2003
b>Climate change is likely to affect transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. We quantitatively estimated current malaria exposure and assessed the potential effect of projected climate scenarios on malaria transmission.
- Challenges in predicting climate and environmental effects on vector-borne disease episystems in a changing world
W J Tabachnick
Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Department of Entomology and Nematology, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, IFAS, 200 9th Street, SE, Vero Beach, Florida, USA
J Exp Biol 213:946-54. 2010
..b>Climate change can impact the vector-borne disease epidemiology...
- Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change
Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, P O Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105:14308-12. 2008
In the Earth's history, periods of relatively stable climate have often been interrupted by sharp transitions to a contrasting state...
- Prediction, assessment of the Rift Valley fever activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and possible vector control strategies
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
Am J Trop Med Hyg 83:43-51. 2010
..This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future...
- The role of imported cases and favorable meteorological conditions in the onset of dengue epidemics
Chuin Shee Shang
Graduate Institute of Epidemiology, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
PLoS Negl Trop Dis 4:e775. 2010
..Nevertheless, the interplay between infected travelers, climate, vectors, and indigenous dengue incidence remains unclear...
- Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate
University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20770 2425, USA
Nature 423:528-31. 2003
The most important anthropogenic influences on climate are the emission of greenhouse gases and changes in land use, such as urbanization and agriculture...
- Climate change and temperature-dependent biogeography: oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance in animals
H O Portner
Alfred Wegener Institut fur Polar und Meeresforschung, Okophysiologie, Bremerhaven, Germany
Naturwissenschaften 88:137-46. 2001
..As a corollary, capacity limitations at a complex level of organisation, the oxygen delivery system, define thermal tolerance limits before molecular functions become disturbed...
- Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD
John W Williams
Department of Geography, 550 North Park Street, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:5738-42. 2007
Key risks associated with projected climate trends for the 21st century include the prospects of future climate states with no current analog and the disappearance of some extant climates...
- Spatial and temporal variations of malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia: factors involved and implications
Tarekegn Abose Abeku
Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre, PO Box 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Acta Trop 87:331-40. 2003
..Epidemic early warning systems should take account of non-uniform effects of these factors by space and time and thus temporal dimensions need to be considered in spatial models of epidemic risks...
- Biophysics, physiological ecology, and climate change: does mechanism matter?
Department of Biological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina 29208, USA
Annu Rev Physiol 67:177-201. 2005
Recent meta-analyses have shown that the effects of climate change are detectable and significant in their magnitude, but these studies have emphasized the utility of looking for large-scale patterns without necessarily understanding the ..
- Caribbean corals in crisis: record thermal stress, bleaching, and mortality in 2005
C Mark Eakin
Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA
PLoS ONE 5:e13969. 2010
..In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin...
- The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population
M M Huynen
International Centre for Integrative Studies, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
Environ Health Perspect 109:463-70. 2001
..The results concerning the forward displacement of deaths due to heat waves were not conclusive. We found no cold-induced forward displacement of deaths...
- An investigation of a major outbreak of Rift Valley fever in Kenya: 2006-2007
Patrick M Nguku
Division of Communicable Disease Control, Kenya Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation, Nairobi, Kenya
Am J Trop Med Hyg 83:5-13. 2010
..However, there were up to 180,000 infected mildly ill or asymptomatic people within highly affected areas. Soil type data may add specificity to climate-based forecasting models for RVF.
- Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:5829-34. 2006
The incidence of malaria in the East African highlands has increased since the end of the 1970s. The role of climate change in the exacerbation of the disease has been controversial, and the specific influence of rising temperature (..
- Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106:1704-9. 2009
The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility...
- Tools from ecology: useful for evaluating infection risk models?
Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College School of Medicine, Norfolk Place, W2 1PG, London, UK
Trends Parasitol 18:70-4. 2002
..Using the example of Schistosoma haematobium in Africa, this article illustrates how ecozonation and receiver-operator characteristic analysis can help to assess the usefulness of available models objectively...
- The influence of global climate change on the scientific foundations and applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: introduction to a SETAC international workshop
Ralph G Stahl
DuPont, Wilmington, DE, USA
Environ Toxicol Chem 32:13-9. 2013
..Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled "The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry...
- Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States
Phillip J van Mantgem
U S Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, CA 93271, USA
Science 323:521-4. 2009
..Regional warming and consequent increases in water deficits are likely contributors to the increases in tree mortality rates...
- Is hand, foot and mouth disease associated with meteorological parameters?
Surveillance and Epidemiology Branch, Centre for Health Protection, Department of Health, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
Epidemiol Infect 138:1779-88. 2010
..Our model demonstrated that climate parameters help in predicting HFMD activity, which could assist in explaining the winter peak detected in recent ..
- Global traffic and disease vector dispersal
Andrew J Tatem
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, United Kingdom
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:6242-7. 2006
..The expansion of the range of Ae. albopictus proved to be surprisingly predictable using this combination of climate and traffic data...
- Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico
Michael A Johansson
Dengue Branch, Division of Vector Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico
PLoS Negl Trop Dis 3:e382. 2009
..While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial ..
- Influence of global climate change on chemical fate and bioaccumulation: the role of multimedia models
Unilever, Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth Science Park, Sharnbrook, United Kingdom
Environ Toxicol Chem 32:20-31. 2013
Multimedia environmental fate models are valuable tools for investigating potential changes associated with global climate change, particularly because thermodynamic forcing on partitioning behavior as well as diffusive and nondiffusive ..
- Recruitment and survival of immature seabirds in relation to oil spills and climate variability
S C Votier
Marine Biology and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
J Anim Ecol 77:974-83. 2008
..We discuss the implications of compensatory recruitment for assessing the impact of oil pollution incidents...
- Regional-scale climate-variability synchrony of cholera epidemics in West Africa
Guillaume Constantin de Magny
Génétique et Evolution des Maladies Infectieuses, UMR CNRS IRD 2724, 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 05, France
BMC Infect Dis 7:20. 2007
The relationship between cholera and climate was explored in Africa, the continent with the most reported cases, by analyzing monthly 20-year cholera time series for five coastal adjoining West African countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, ..
- Oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance: a matrix for integrating climate-related stressor effects in marine ecosystems
H O Portner
Integrative Ecophysiology, Alfred Wegener Institute, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
J Exp Biol 213:881-93. 2010
The concept of oxygen- and capacity-dependent thermal tolerance in aquatic ectotherms has successfully explained climate-induced effects of rising temperatures on species abundance in the field...
- Global consequences of land use
Jonathan A Foley
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment SAGE, University of Wisconsin, 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53726, USA
Science 309:570-4. 2005
..the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality, and ameliorate infectious diseases...
- Mapping malaria transmission in West and Central Africa
Swiss Tropical Institute, Basel, Switzerland
Trop Med Int Health 11:1032-46. 2006
..The consequent uncertainties indicate zones where further survey data are needed most urgently. Malaria risk maps based on compilations of heterogeneous survey data are highly sensitive to the analytical methodology...
- Climate, mosquito indices and the epidemiology of dengue fever in Trinidad (2002-2004)
D D Chadee
Department of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, St Augustine, Trinidad
Ann Trop Med Parasitol 101:69-77. 2007
Between January 2002 and December 2004, a population-based study on the effects of climate and mosquito indices on the incidences of dengue fever (DF) and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) was conducted in Trinidad, West Indies...
- Integrating phylogenetics and environmental niche models to explore speciation mechanisms in dendrobatid frogs
Catherine H Graham
Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
Evolution 58:1781-93. 2004
..Further, the method outlined in this paper will be increasingly useful as knowledge of distribution and phylogeny of tropical species increases...
- Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins
C D Thomas
Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
Nature 411:577-81. 2001
..Despite this, the cool margins of many species' distributions have expanded rapidly in association with recent climate warming...
- Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change
Department of Public Health and Environment, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Environ Health Perspect 114:1935-41. 2006
..These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely ..
- Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate
Judith A Omumbo
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, LDEO Campus, Palisades, NY 10964 8000, USA
Malar J 10:12. 2011
..thirty years are associated with co-varying changes in local temperature, possibly connected to global changes in climate, has been debated for over a decade...
- Urbanization, malaria transmission and disease burden in Africa
Simon I Hay
TALA Research Group in the Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
Nat Rev Microbiol 3:81-90. 2005
..We find there were 1,068,505 malaria deaths in Africa in 2000 - a modest 6.7% reduction over previous iterations. The public-health implications of these findings and revised estimates are discussed...
- Identifying vulnerable subpopulations for climate change health effects in the United States
John M Balbus
Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, DC, USA
J Occup Environ Med 51:33-7. 2009
b>Climate change can be expected to have differential effects on different subpopulations...