Marco Ajelli

Summary

Publications

  1. pmc Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses
    Stefano Merler
    Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston 02115, MA, USA
    BMC Med 11:252. 2013
  2. pmc The impact of the unstructured contacts component in influenza pandemic modeling
    Marco Ajelli
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
    PLoS ONE 3:e1519. 2008
  3. pmc Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models
    Marco Ajelli
    Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research, School of Informatics and Computing, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47408, USA
    BMC Infect Dis 10:190. 2010
  4. doi request reprint Basic mathematical models for the temporal dynamics of HAV in medium-endemicity Italian areas
    Marco Ajelli
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Via Sommarive 18, Povo Trento, Italy
    Vaccine 26:1697-707. 2008
  5. doi request reprint An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission
    Marco Ajelli
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Via Sommarive 18, I 38123 Trento Povo, Italy
    J Theor Biol 259:478-88. 2009
  6. doi request reprint Spatiotemporal dynamics of viral hepatitis A in Italy
    Marco Ajelli
    Predictive Models for Biomedicine and Environment, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Italy
    Theor Popul Biol 79:1-11. 2011
  7. doi request reprint Model predictions and evaluation of possible control strategies for the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in Italy
    M Ajelli
    Predictive Models for Biomedicine and Environment, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    Epidemiol Infect 139:68-79. 2011
  8. pmc The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics
    Piero Poletti
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS ONE 6:e16460. 2011
  9. pmc Inferring the structure of social contacts from demographic data in the analysis of infectious diseases spread
    Laura Fumanelli
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS Comput Biol 8:e1002673. 2012
  10. pmc Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination
    Stefano Merler
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis 10:e0005093. 2016

Detail Information

Publications32

  1. pmc Containing the accidental laboratory escape of potential pandemic influenza viruses
    Stefano Merler
    Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston 02115, MA, USA
    BMC Med 11:252. 2013
    ..Here, we assess the risk that the accidental escape of a novel transmissible influenza strain would not be contained in the local community...
  2. pmc The impact of the unstructured contacts component in influenza pandemic modeling
    Marco Ajelli
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
    PLoS ONE 3:e1519. 2008
    ..This can be achieved for instance by employing distance-based models or by choosing unstructured contacts in the local communities or by employing commuting data...
  3. pmc Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models
    Marco Ajelli
    Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research, School of Informatics and Computing, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47408, USA
    BMC Infect Dis 10:190. 2010
    ..One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used...
  4. doi request reprint Basic mathematical models for the temporal dynamics of HAV in medium-endemicity Italian areas
    Marco Ajelli
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Via Sommarive 18, Povo Trento, Italy
    Vaccine 26:1697-707. 2008
    ..The model also fits well temporal trends of HAV in Southern Italy, suggesting that it is a good starting point for more structured modelling...
  5. doi request reprint An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission
    Marco Ajelli
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Via Sommarive 18, I 38123 Trento Povo, Italy
    J Theor Biol 259:478-88. 2009
    ..Finally, the considered social distancing measures can be counterproductive since the fraction of recovered individuals does not decline while the age at infection increases, thus augmenting the probability of developing acute symptoms...
  6. doi request reprint Spatiotemporal dynamics of viral hepatitis A in Italy
    Marco Ajelli
    Predictive Models for Biomedicine and Environment, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Italy
    Theor Popul Biol 79:1-11. 2011
    ..Finally, our results highlight that the continuation of the vaccination campaign in Puglia would have a relevant impact in decreasing long-term HAV prevalence, especially in Southern Italy...
  7. doi request reprint Model predictions and evaluation of possible control strategies for the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza pandemic in Italy
    M Ajelli
    Predictive Models for Biomedicine and Environment, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    Epidemiol Infect 139:68-79. 2011
    ..Model prediction suggested that the epidemic would peak in early November. These predictions have proved to be a valuable support for public health policy-makers in planning interventions for mitigating the spread of the pandemic...
  8. pmc The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics
    Piero Poletti
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS ONE 6:e16460. 2011
    ..The aim here is to understand whether spontaneous behavioral changes in the population could be responsible for such a pattern of epidemic spread...
  9. pmc Inferring the structure of social contacts from demographic data in the analysis of infectious diseases spread
    Laura Fumanelli
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS Comput Biol 8:e1002673. 2012
    ..This study provides a numerical approach for the generation of human mixing patterns that can be used to improve the accuracy of mathematical models in the absence of specific experimental data...
  10. pmc Containing Ebola at the Source with Ring Vaccination
    Stefano Merler
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis 10:e0005093. 2016
    ..6. These results have implications for future control of Ebola and other emerging infectious disease threats...
  11. pmc Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis
    Marco Ajelli
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Via Sommarive 18, Trento, 38123, Italy
    BMC Med 14:130. 2016
    ..Among the three countries most affected by the Ebola virus disease outbreak in 2014-2015, Guinea presents an unusual spatiotemporal epidemic pattern, with several waves and a long tail in the decay of the epidemic incidence...
  12. pmc Perspectives on the impact of varicella immunization on herpes zoster. A model-based evaluation from three European countries
    Piero Poletti
    Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS ONE 8:e60732. 2013
    ..These findings might explain the opposed empirical evidences observed about the increases of HZ in sites where mass varicella vaccination is ongoing...
  13. doi request reprint Coinfection can trigger multiple pandemic waves
    Stefano Merler
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Via Sommarive 18, Trento, Italy
    J Theor Biol 254:499-507. 2008
    ..The model agrees well with mortality excess data during the 1918 pandemic influenza, thereby providing indications for potential pandemic mitigation...
  14. pmc Pandemic influenza A/H1N1pdm in Italy: age, risk and population susceptibility
    Stefano Merler
    Predictive Models for Biomedicine and Environment, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS ONE 8:e74785. 2013
    ..The biological or social mechanisms responsible for the observed age-specific risk of infection are still to be deeply investigated...
  15. pmc The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza
    Stefano Merler
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
    Proc Biol Sci 277:557-65. 2010
    ..R(0), cumulative attack rate and peak daily attack rate depend heavily on sociodemographic parameters, such as the size of household groups and the fraction of workers and students in the population...
  16. pmc Transmission potential of chikungunya virus and control measures: the case of Italy
    Piero Poletti
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS ONE 6:e18860. 2011
    ..However, our results show that an epidemic can be controlled by performing a timely intervention, even if the transmission potential of Chikungunya virus is sensibly high...
  17. ncbi request reprint Estimating measles transmission potential in Italy over the period 2010-2011
    Marco Ajelli
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    Ann Ist Super Sanita 50:351-6. 2014
    ..Recent history of measles epidemiology in Italy is characterized by the recurrence of spatially localized epidemics...
  18. pmc The impact of demographic changes on the epidemiology of herpes zoster: Spain as a case study
    Valentina Marziano
    Center for Information Technology, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
    Proc Biol Sci 282:20142509. 2015
    ..Considering the effect of demographic changes can help interpreting variations in epidemiological trends of HZ, contributing to a more accurate evaluation of vaccination programmes against VZV. ..
  19. pmc Age-prioritized use of antivirals during an influenza pandemic
    Stefano Merler
    Predictive Models for Biomedicine and Environment, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
    BMC Infect Dis 9:117. 2009
    ..Second, since in some countries the stockpile exceeds the suggested minimum level, we search for optimal strategies for post-exposure prophylactic treatment of close contacts of cases...
  20. pmc Modeling socio-demography to capture tuberculosis transmission dynamics in a low burden setting
    Giorgio Guzzetta
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
    J Theor Biol 289:197-205. 2011
    ....
  21. pmc Model-Based Comprehensive Analysis of School Closure Policies for Mitigating Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics
    Laura Fumanelli
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS Comput Biol 12:e1004681. 2016
    ....
  22. pmc Effectiveness of contact investigations for tuberculosis control in Arkansas
    Giorgio Guzzetta
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Via Sommarive 18, 38123 Povo Tn, Italy Trento RISE, Via Sommarive 18, 38123 Povo Tn, Italy Electronic address
    J Theor Biol 380:238-46. 2015
    ..However, contact investigations are expected to have limited effectiveness on avoiding reactivation cases of latent infections over the next 60 years. ..
  23. pmc The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic
    Marco Ajelli
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    Sci Rep 4:7218. 2014
    ..These results highlight the pivotal role played by schools in the transmission of the 2009 H1N1 influenza. They may be relevant in the evaluation of intervention options and, hence, for informing policy decisions. ..
  24. pmc Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis
    Stefano Merler
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    Lancet Infect Dis 15:204-11. 2015
    ....
  25. pmc Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling
    Stefano Merler
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento Povo, Italy
    PLoS Comput Biol 7:e1002205. 2011
    ..This supports the use of models accounting for the structure of complex modern societies for giving insight to policy makers...
  26. pmc School closure policies at municipality level for mitigating influenza spread: a model-based evaluation
    Constanze Ciavarella
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Via Sommarive 18, 38123, Trento, Italy
    BMC Infect Dis 16:576. 2016
    ..However, their applicability remains uncertain and their implementation should carefully be weighed on the basis of cost-benefit considerations...
  27. doi request reprint Spontaneous behavioural changes in response to epidemics
    Piero Poletti
    Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy
    J Theor Biol 260:31-40. 2009
    ..Moreover, the model can explain "asymmetric waves", i.e., infection waves whose rising and decaying phases differ in slope. Finally, we prove that introduction of behavioural dynamics results in the reduction of the final attack rate...
  28. doi request reprint Risk perception and effectiveness of uncoordinated behavioral responses in an emerging epidemic
    Piero Poletti
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    Math Biosci 238:80-9. 2012
    ..In conclusion, this analysis allows noteworthy inferences about the role of risk perception and the effectiveness of spontaneous behavioral changes during an emerging epidemic...
  29. pmc The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Pujehun, Sierra Leone: epidemiology and impact of interventions
    Marco Ajelli
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    BMC Med 13:281. 2015
    ..7%. The Pujehun outbreak represents a precious opportunity for improving the body of work on the transmission characteristics and effects of control interventions during the 2014-2015 EVD epidemic in West Africa...
  30. pmc Transmission potential and design of adequate control measures for Marburg hemorrhagic fever
    Marco Ajelli
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
    PLoS ONE 7:e50948. 2012
    ..This work represents an advance in the knowledge required to manage a potential Marburg hemorrhagic fever epidemic...
  31. pmc Deciphering the relative weights of demographic transition and vaccination in the decrease of measles incidence in Italy
    Stefano Merler
    Bruno Kessler Foundation, Via Sommarive 18, Trento, Povo I38123, Italy
    Proc Biol Sci 281:20132676. 2014
    ..These findings call for the adoption of epidemiological models, which deviate the age structure from stationary equilibrium solutions, to better understand the biology of infectious diseases and evaluate immunization programmes. ..
  32. pmc Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: an individual based model considering different scenarios
    Marta Luisa Ciofi degli Atti
    National Center for Epidemiology Surveillance and Health Promotion, Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Rome, Italy
    PLoS ONE 3:e1790. 2008
    ....