Summary: The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology.

Top Publications

  1. ncbi Ensemble forecasting of species distributions
    Miguel B Araujo
    Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, C Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006, Madrid, Spain
    Trends Ecol Evol 22:42-7. 2007
  2. pmc Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza
    Jeffrey Shaman
    Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109:20425-30. 2012
  3. ncbi Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change
    D Tilman
    Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, 1987 Upper Buford Circle, St Paul, MN 55108, USA
    Science 292:281-4. 2001
  4. ncbi Global cancer statistics in the year 2000
    D M Parkin
    DMP is at the International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
    Lancet Oncol 2:533-43. 2001
  5. pmc Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future
    S W Lindsay
    Department of Biological Sciences, University of Durham, England
    Bull World Health Organ 76:33-45. 1998
  6. ncbi Forecasting the effects of obesity and smoking on U.S. life expectancy
    Susan T Stewart
    Harvard University Interfaculty Program for Health Systems Improvement, Boston, MA, USA
    N Engl J Med 361:2252-60. 2009
  7. ncbi Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa
    Frank C Tanser
    Malaria Research Lead Programme, Medical Research Council, Overport, Durban, South Africa
    Lancet 362:1792-8. 2003
  8. pmc Real-time epidemic monitoring and forecasting of H1N1-2009 using influenza-like illness from general practice and family doctor clinics in Singapore
    Jimmy Boon Som Ong
    Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
    PLoS ONE 5:e10036. 2010
  9. ncbi The public health impact of Alzheimer's disease, 2000-2050: potential implication of treatment advances
    Philip D Sloane
    Cecil G Sheps Center for Health Services Research, Department of Family Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chaper Hill, 27599, USA
    Annu Rev Public Health 23:213-31. 2002
  10. pmc Neural substrates of envisioning the future
    Karl K Szpunar
    Department of Psychology, Washington University, St Louis, MO 63130, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:642-7. 2007

Detail Information

Publications294 found, 100 shown here

  1. ncbi Ensemble forecasting of species distributions
    Miguel B Araujo
    Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC, C Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, 28006, Madrid, Spain
    Trends Ecol Evol 22:42-7. 2007
    ..Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, ..
  2. pmc Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza
    Jeffrey Shaman
    Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109:20425-30. 2012
    ..of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible...
  3. ncbi Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change
    D Tilman
    Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, 1987 Upper Buford Circle, St Paul, MN 55108, USA
    Science 292:281-4. 2001
    ..Significant scientific advances and regulatory, technological, and policy changes are needed to control the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion...
  4. ncbi Global cancer statistics in the year 2000
    D M Parkin
    DMP is at the International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
    Lancet Oncol 2:533-43. 2001
    ..World population growth and ageing imply a progressive increase in the cancer burden--15 million new cases and 10 million new deaths are expected in 2020, even if current rates remain unchanged...
  5. pmc Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future
    S W Lindsay
    Department of Biological Sciences, University of Durham, England
    Bull World Health Organ 76:33-45. 1998
    ..We further recommend that a regional modelling approach should be adopted to assess the extent and severity of this problem and help improve disease surveillance and the quality of health care delivered in this unstable ecosystem...
  6. ncbi Forecasting the effects of obesity and smoking on U.S. life expectancy
    Susan T Stewart
    Harvard University Interfaculty Program for Health Systems Improvement, Boston, MA, USA
    N Engl J Med 361:2252-60. 2009
    ..Having a better understanding of the joint effects of these trends on longevity and quality of life will facilitate more efficient targeting of health care resources...
  7. ncbi Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa
    Frank C Tanser
    Malaria Research Lead Programme, Medical Research Council, Overport, Durban, South Africa
    Lancet 362:1792-8. 2003
    ..Climate change is likely to affect transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. We quantitatively estimated current malaria exposure and assessed the potential effect of projected climate scenarios on malaria transmission...
  8. pmc Real-time epidemic monitoring and forecasting of H1N1-2009 using influenza-like illness from general practice and family doctor clinics in Singapore
    Jimmy Boon Som Ong
    Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
    PLoS ONE 5:e10036. 2010
  9. ncbi The public health impact of Alzheimer's disease, 2000-2050: potential implication of treatment advances
    Philip D Sloane
    Cecil G Sheps Center for Health Services Research, Department of Family Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chaper Hill, 27599, USA
    Annu Rev Public Health 23:213-31. 2002
    ..Therefore, Alzheimer's care is likely to remain a major public health problem during the coming decades...
  10. pmc Neural substrates of envisioning the future
    Karl K Szpunar
    Department of Psychology, Washington University, St Louis, MO 63130, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:642-7. 2007
    ..That is, subjects appear to place their future scenarios in well known visual-spatial contexts. Our results offer insight into the fundamental and little-studied capacity of vivid mental projection of oneself in the future...
  11. pmc Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model
    Qiyong Liu
    National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing, 102206, PR China
    BMC Infect Dis 11:218. 2011
    ..In this study, we applied a stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of monitoring and short-term forecasting HFRS incidence in China.
  12. pmc Test and treat DC: forecasting the impact of a comprehensive HIV strategy in Washington DC
    Rochelle P Walensky
    Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts 02114, USA
    Clin Infect Dis 51:392-400. 2010
    ..We forecast outcomes of this approach if implemented in Washington DC...
  13. pmc Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009)
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4 1 8 Honcho, Kawaguchi, Saitama, Japan
    Biomed Eng Online 10:15. 2011
    Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting.
  14. ncbi Why is the choice of future climate scenarios for species distribution modelling important?
    Linda J Beaumont
    Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, NSW, 2109, Australia
    Ecol Lett 11:1135-46. 2008
  15. pmc Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease
    Luis Fernando Chaves
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
    PLoS Med 3:e295. 2006
    ..As in other vector-transmitted diseases, its transmission is sensitive to the physical environment, but no study has addressed the nonstationary nature of such relationships or the interannual patterns of cycling of the disease...
  16. pmc Projections of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the public health impact of delaying disease onset
    R Brookmeyer
    Department of Biostatistics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 22105 2179, USA
    Am J Public Health 88:1337-42. 1998
    ..The goal of this study was to project the future prevalence and incidence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States and the potential impact of interventions to delay disease onset...
  17. ncbi The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world
    D J Rogers
    Trypanosomiasis and Land Use in Africa Research Group, Oxford Tick Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
    Science 289:1763-6. 2000
    ..These results were applied to future climate scenarios to predict future distributions, which showed remarkably few changes, even under the most extreme scenarios...
  18. ncbi Molecular classification and molecular forecasting of breast cancer: ready for clinical application?
    James D Brenton
    Cancer Genomics Program, Department of Oncology, University of Cambridge, Hutchison MRC Research Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom CB22XZ
    J Clin Oncol 23:7350-60. 2005
  19. pmc Derivation and validation of an index to predict early death or unplanned readmission after discharge from hospital to the community
    Carl van Walraven
    Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa Hospital, and the Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario
    CMAJ 182:551-7. 2010
    ..We sought to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital to the community...
  20. pmc A role for the hippocampus in encoding simulations of future events
    Victoria C Martin
    Department of Psychology and Centre for Brain Research, University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 108:13858-63. 2011
    ..This function is not essential for constructing coherent scenarios and may explain why some patients with hippocampal damage are still able to imagine the future...
  21. ncbi Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models
    Gary P Griffith
    Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies IMAS, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
    Conserv Biol 26:1145-52. 2012
    ..With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification...
  22. ncbi Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns
    Jeffrey M Diez
    School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    Ecol Lett 15:545-53. 2012
    ..implications of variability across levels of organisation (within and among species, and among communities) for forecasting responses to climate change...
  23. pmc Predictive ecology: systems approaches
    Matthew R Evans
    Centre for Ecology and Conservation, School of Biosciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9EZ, UK
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 367:163-9. 2012
    ..Process-based models are more common, and are used for forecasting, in other disciplines, e.g. climatology and molecular systems biology...
  24. ncbi A systematic review of models for forecasting the number of emergency department visits
    M Wargon
    Service des Urgences, Hopital Bichat, 46 rue Henri Huchard, Paris, France
    Emerg Med J 26:395-9. 2009
    ..ED directors or managers should be aware of the model limitations. These models should certainly be used on a larger scale to assess future needs...
  25. ncbi The influence of visual training on predicting complex action sequences
    Emily S Cross
    Department of Psychology, Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences, Leipzig, Germany
    Hum Brain Mapp 34:467-86. 2013
    ..We suggest that the findings inform both the premotor model of action prediction and the predictive coding account of AON function...
  26. ncbi Forecasting emergency department crowding: a discrete event simulation
    Nathan R Hoot
    Department of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232, USA
    Ann Emerg Med 52:116-25. 2008
    To develop a discrete event simulation of emergency department (ED) patient flow for the purpose of forecasting near-future operating conditions and to validate the forecasts with several measures of ED crowding.
  27. pmc Application of an autoregressive integrated moving average model for predicting the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome
    Qi Li
    Hebei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuhua District, Shijiazhuang, China
    Am J Trop Med Hyg 87:364-70. 2012
    ..This finding suggests that the ARIMA model fits the fluctuations in HFRS frequency and it can be used for future forecasting when applied to HFRS prevention and control.
  28. ncbi Projection of tuberculosis incidence with increasing immigration trends
    Yicang Zhou
    Department of Mathematics, Xi an Jiaotong University, Xi an 710049, China
    J Theor Biol 254:215-28. 2008
  29. ncbi Forecasting age-related macular degeneration through the year 2050: the potential impact of new treatments
    David B Rein
    Research Triangle Institute International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
    Arch Ophthalmol 127:533-40. 2009
    ..To forecast age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and its consequences in the United States through the year 2050 with different treatment scenarios...
  30. ncbi Data-model fusion to better understand emerging pathogens and improve infectious disease forecasting
    Shannon L LaDeau
    Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York 12545, USA
    Ecol Appl 21:1443-60. 2011
    Ecologists worldwide are challenged to contribute solutions to urgent and pressing environmental problems by forecasting how populations, communities, and ecosystems will respond to global change...
  31. ncbi Are we more moral than we think? Exploring the role of affect in moral behavior and moral forecasting
    Rimma Teper
    Department of Psychology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
    Psychol Sci 22:553-8. 2011
    ..some situations, they cannot, and that emotions play a pivotal role in this dissociation between behavior and forecasting. In the current experiment, individuals in a moral action condition cheated significantly less on a math task ..
  32. ncbi Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative
    J S Clark
    Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 USA
    Science 293:657-60. 2001
    ..Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controls on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts...
  33. pmc Testing the reward prediction error hypothesis with an axiomatic model
    Robb B Rutledge
    Center for Neural Science and Department of Economics, New York University, New York, New York 10003, USA
    J Neurosci 30:13525-36. 2010
    ..As cognitive neuroscience matures and models proliferate, formal approaches of this kind that assess entire model classes rather than specific model exemplars may take on increased significance...
  34. pmc Heat-health warning systems: a comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days
    Shakoor Hajat
    Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, UK
    Am J Public Health 100:1137-44. 2010
    ..We compared the ability of several heat-health warning systems to predict days of heat-associated mortality using common data sets...
  35. ncbi Prediction of the spread of influenza epidemics by the method of analogues
    Cecile Viboud
    Epidemiology and Information Sciences, INSERM Unit 444, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
    Am J Epidemiol 158:996-1006. 2003
    This study was designed to examine the performance of a nonparametric forecasting method first developed in meteorology, the "method of analogues," in predicting influenza activity...
  36. ncbi Climate change effects on plague and tularemia in the United States
    Yoshinori Nakazawa
    Natural History Museum and Biodiversity Research Center, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66045, USA
    Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 7:529-40. 2007
  37. pmc Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California
    Katharine Hayhoe
    ATMOS Research and Consulting, 809 West Colfax Avenue, South Bend, IN 46601, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101:12422-7. 2004
    ..Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades...
  38. ncbi Dengue fever and El Nino/Southern Oscillation in Queensland, Australia: a time series predictive model
    Wenbiao Hu
    School of Population Health, The University of Queensland, Herston Road, Herston, Queensland 4006, Australia
    Occup Environ Med 67:307-11. 2010
    It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.
  39. ncbi Neuronal coding of prediction errors
    W Schultz
    Institute of Physiology, University of Fribourg, Switzerland
    Annu Rev Neurosci 23:473-500. 2000
    ..The coding of prediction errors may represent a basic mode of brain function that may also contribute to the processing of sensory information and the short-term control of behavior...
  40. ncbi Cancer prevalence in France: time trend, situation in 2002 and extrapolation to 2012
    Marc Colonna
    Network of French Cancer Registries FRANCIM, Toulouse, France
    Eur J Cancer 44:115-22. 2008
    ..This paper provides a prevalence estimate for 2002 and 2012 in France and an assessment of the trend in prevalence over the period 1993-2002...
  41. pmc Evidence-based gene predictions in plant genomes
    Chengzhi Liang
    Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, New York 11724, USA
    Genome Res 19:1912-23. 2009
    ..We discuss the results of testing the pipeline on a 22-Mb region of the newly sequenced maize genome and discuss potential application of the pipeline to other genomes...
  42. pmc A broad assessment of factors determining Culicoides imicola abundance: modelling the present and forecasting its future in climate change scenarios
    Pelayo Acevedo
    Biogeography, Diversity and Conservation Research Team, Department of Animal Biology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Malaga, Malaga, Spain
    PLoS ONE 5:e14236. 2010
    ..What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses...
  43. ncbi The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictions
    Audrey Coreau
    UMR 5175 Centre d Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS, 1919 Route de Mende, 34 293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
    Ecol Lett 12:1277-86. 2009
    ..We argue that a new direction for ecological futures research could be explored by using ecological scenarios in combination with predictive models to further fundamental ecological research, in addition to enhancing its applied value...
  44. pmc Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world
    L Hufnagel
    Max Planck Institut für Strömungsforschung, Bunsenstrasse 10, 37073 Gottingen, Germany
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101:15124-9. 2004
    ..The performance of different control strategies is analyzed, and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibiting the global spread of epidemics...
  45. ncbi Predictors of functional outcomes following limb salvage surgery for lower-extremity soft tissue sarcoma
    A M Davis
    University Musculoskeletal Oncology Unit, Mount Sinai Hospital and the University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
    J Surg Oncol 73:206-11. 2000
  46. pmc The public health implications of asthma
    Jean Bousquet
    Clinique des Maladies Respiratoires, Hopital Arnaud de Villeneuve, CHU Montpellier, 34295 Montpellier cedex 05, France
    Bull World Health Organ 83:548-54. 2005
    ..This paper presents a discussion of the burden of asthma and its socioeconomic implications and proposes a model to predict the costs incurred by the disease...
  47. ncbi Illustrating the impact of including future costs in economic evaluations: an application to end-stage renal disease care
    Braden Manns
    Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology, University of Calgary, Canada
    Health Econ 12:949-58. 2003
  48. doi Text messaging in healthcare: the elephant knocking at the door
    Mark Terry
    Telemed J E Health 14:520-4. 2008
  49. pmc Modelling malaria incidence with environmental dependency in a locality of Sudanese savannah area, Mali
    Jean Gaudart
    Biostatistics Research Unit, Laboratory of Education and Research in Medical Information Processing LERTIM, EA 3283 Aix Marseille University, Faculty of Medicine, Marseille Cedex 5, France
    Malar J 8:61. 2009
    ..Remote sensing data on environment were incorporated into a temporal model of the transmission, to forecast the evolution of malaria epidemiology, in a locality of Sudanese savannah area...
  50. pmc Hospital readmission in general medicine patients: a prediction model
    Omar Hasan
    Division of General Internal Medicine, Brigham and Women s Hospital, 1620 Tremont Street, 3rd Floor, Boston, MA 02120 1613, USA
    J Gen Intern Med 25:211-9. 2010
    ..Previous studies of hospital readmission have focused on specific conditions or populations and generated complex prediction models...
  51. ncbi The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates
    Johannes J Feddema
    Department of Geography, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA
    Science 310:1674-8. 2005
    ..Agricultural expansion in the mid-latitudes produces cooling and decreases in the mean daily temperature range over many areas. The A2 scenario results in more significant change, often of opposite sign, than does the B1 scenario...
  52. ncbi Microarray data normalization and transformation
    John Quackenbush
    The Institute for Genomic Research, 9712 Medical Center Drive, Rockville, Maryland 20850, USA
    Nat Genet 32:496-501. 2002
  53. pmc Climate variability and the outbreaks of cholera in Zanzibar, East Africa: a time series analysis
    Rita Reyburn
    International Vaccine Institute, SNU Research Park, Seoul, Korea
    Am J Trop Med Hyg 84:862-9. 2011
    ..We examined the impact of climate and ocean environmental variability on cholera outbreaks, and developed a forecasting model for outbreaks in Zanzibar...
  54. ncbi Predicting the distribution of tsetse flies in West Africa using temporal Fourier processed meteorological satellite data
    D J Rogers
    Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
    Ann Trop Med Parasitol 90:225-41. 1996
    ..Refinements of the analytical technique and the problems of extending the predictions through space and time are discussed...
  55. ncbi The challenge of biosimilars
    H Mellstedt
    Cancer Centre Karolinska, Department of Oncology, Karolinska University Hospital Solna, Stockholm, Sweden
    Ann Oncol 19:411-9. 2008
    ..The purpose of this report was to review issues associated with the introduction of alternative versions of biosimilars used in the oncology setting...
  56. pmc Cancer survival in England and Wales at the end of the 20th century
    B Rachet
    Cancer Research UK Cancer Survival Group, Non communicable Disease Epidemiology Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
    Br J Cancer 99:S2-10. 2008
    ..Although socioeconomic inequalities in survival are remarkably persistent, the overall patterns suggest that these inequalities are largely avoidable...
  57. ncbi Using administrative sickness absence data as a marker of future disability pension: the prospective DREAM study of Danish private sector employees
    Thomas Lund
    Mr T Lund, National Research Center for the Working Environment, Lerso Parkalle 105, DK 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
    Occup Environ Med 65:28-31. 2008
    ..The aim of this study was to examine duration of sickness absence as a risk marker for future disability pension among all private sector employees in Denmark 1998-2004...
  58. ncbi Neural antecedents of financial decisions
    Brian Knutson
    Department of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA
    J Neurosci 27:8174-7. 2007
    ..These findings have implications for predicting choices and for building a physiologically constrained theory of decision-making...
  59. pmc Global food security under climate change
    Josef Schmidhuber
    Global Perspective Studies Unit, Food and Agriculture Organization, 00100 Rome, Italy
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:19703-8. 2007
    ..Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses...
  60. ncbi Where people die (1974--2030): past trends, future projections and implications for care
    Barbara Gomes
    Cicely Saunders International Department of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, King s College London, London, UK
    Palliat Med 22:33-41. 2008
    ..We analysed past trends in place of death (1974-2003) and projected likely trends to 2030 in England and Wales and from these need for care...
  61. pmc Medical literature as a potential source of new knowledge
    D R Swanson
    Graduate Library School, Center for Information Studies, University of Chicago, IL 60637
    Bull Med Libr Assoc 78:29-37. 1990
    ..Such structures are probably not rare and may provide the foundation for a literature-based approach to scientific discovery...
  62. ncbi The economic and social burden of malaria
    Jeffrey Sachs
    Center for International Development, John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F Kennedy St, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA
    Nature 415:680-5. 2002
    ..There are multiple channels by which malaria impedes development, including effects on fertility, population growth, saving and investment, worker productivity, absenteeism, premature mortality and medical costs...
  63. pmc Personalized medicine in psychiatry: problems and promises
    Uzoezi Ozomaro
    University of Miami, Leonard M, Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USA
    BMC Med 11:132. 2013
    ..In addition, we present emerging applications that are likely to advance personalized medicine in psychiatry, with an emphasis on novel biomarkers and neuroimaging...
  64. pmc Pattern-oriented modelling: a 'multi-scope' for predictive systems ecology
    Volker Grimm
    Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 367:298-310. 2012
  65. pmc Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine
    Bruce Y Lee
    Public Health Computational and Operations Research PHICOR, School of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, United States
    Vaccine 28:7731-6. 2010
    ..For populations with higher infection risk (≥0.4%), a $50 or $75 vaccine would be highly cost-effective even when vaccine efficacy is as low as 50%...
  66. ncbi Forecasting the future of HIV epidemics: the impact of antiretroviral therapies & imperfect vaccines
    S Blower
    AIDS Institute and Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, 10833 Le Conte Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095 1766, USA
    AIDS Rev 5:113-25. 2003
  67. ncbi A multi-tiered time-series modelling approach to forecasting respiratory syncytial virus incidence at the local level
    M C Spaeder
    Division of Critical Care Medicine, Children s National Medical Center, Washington, DC 20010, USA
    Epidemiol Infect 140:602-7. 2012
    ..b>Forecasting models of weekly RSV incidence for the local community, inpatient paediatric hospital and paediatric intensive-..
  68. pmc Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998-2007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia
    Eskindir Loha
    Department of Public and Environmental Health, Hawassa University, Ethiopia
    Malar J 9:166. 2010
    ..Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine if variations in specific meteorological factors are able to consistently predict P. falciparum malaria incidence at different locations in south Ethiopia...
  69. pmc Predicting changing malaria risk after expanded insecticide-treated net coverage in Africa
    David L Smith
    Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, P O Box 100009, Gainesville, Florida 32610, USA
    Trends Parasitol 25:511-6. 2009
    ..This theory provides a method for context-dependent evaluation of ITN programs and a basis for setting rational ITN coverage targets over the next decade...
  70. pmc Forecasting United States mortality using cohort smoking histories
    Haidong Wang
    Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, 2301 5th Avenue, Seattle, WA 98121, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106:393-8. 2009
    ..Because of reductions in smoking that have already occurred or can be reliably projected, mortality is projected to decline much faster when smoking is introduced into the model...
  71. pmc Forecasting emergency department crowding: a prospective, real-time evaluation
    Nathan R Hoot
    Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232, USA
    J Am Med Inform Assoc 16:338-45. 2009
    Emergency department crowding threatens quality and access to health care, and a method of accurately forecasting near-future crowding should enable novel ways to alleviate the problem...
  72. ncbi Profiling the reproductive toxicity of chemicals from multigeneration studies in the toxicity reference database
    Matthew T Martin
    National Center for Computational Toxicology, Office of Research and Development, U S Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, USA
    Toxicol Sci 110:181-90. 2009
    ..Capturing this reproductive toxicity data in ToxRefDB supports ongoing retrospective analyses, test guideline revisions, and computational toxicology research...
  73. pmc Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases
    Luis Fernando Chaves
    Department of Ecology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis 1:e33. 2007
    ..Additionally, there are several neglected tropical diseases whose transmission is sensitive to environmental conditions, for which no EWS have been proposed, though they represent a large burden for the affected populations...
  74. ncbi Forecasting the start of Quercus pollen season using several methods - the evaluation of their efficiency
    Idalia Kasprzyk
    Department of Environmental Biology, University of Rzeszow, Rzeszow, Poland
    Int J Biometeorol 53:345-53. 2009
    b>Forecasting the time when the atmospheric pollen season of allergenic plants begins is particularly important for doctors and their patients...
  75. ncbi Integrative molecular bioinformatics study of human adrenocortical tumors: microRNA, tissue-specific target prediction, and pathway analysis
    Zsófia Tömböl
    Second Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Semmelweis University, Szentkiralyi Street 46, H 1088 Budapest, Hungary
    Endocr Relat Cancer 16:895-906. 2009
    ..miR biomarkers may be helpful for the diagnosis of adrenocortical malignancy. This tissue-specific target prediction approach may be used in other tumors too...
  76. ncbi Ecology. How does climate change affect biodiversity?
    Miguel B Araujo
    Department of Biodiversity and Evolutionary Biology, National Museum of Natural Sciences, 28006 Madrid, Spain
    Science 313:1396-7. 2006
  77. pmc Models for short term malaria prediction in Sri Lanka
    Olivier J T Briët
    International Water Management Institute, P, O, Box 2075, Colombo, Sri Lanka
    Malar J 7:76. 2008
    ..The availability of long time series of monitored/diagnosed malaria cases allows for the study of forecasting models, with an aim to developing a forecasting system which could assist in the efficient allocation of ..
  78. ncbi El Niño and health
    R Sari Kovats
    Department of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
    Lancet 362:1481-9. 2003
    ..ENSO and seasonal climate forecasts might offer the opportunity to target scarce resources for epidemic control and disaster preparedness...
  79. pmc Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia II. Weather-based prediction systems perform comparably to early detection systems in identifying times for interventions
    Hailay D Teklehaimanot
    Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA
    Malar J 3:44. 2004
    ..Early warning methods that provide earlier alerts (usually by the use of weather variables) may permit control measures to interrupt transmission earlier in the epidemic, perhaps at the expense of some level of accuracy...
  80. ncbi Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming
    Flora Jay
    Universite Joseph Fourier Grenoble 1, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, TIMC IMAG UMR 5525, 38041 Grenoble, France
    Mol Ecol 21:2354-68. 2012
    ..distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data...
  81. pmc Towards malaria risk prediction in Afghanistan using remote sensing
    Farida Adimi
    Global Change Data Center, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
    Malar J 9:125. 2010
    ..Understanding the role of environmental variables on malaria transmission can further the effort for malaria control programme...
  82. ncbi Potential assessment of the "support vector machine" method in forecasting ambient air pollutant trends
    Wei Zhen Lu
    Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, 83, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong
    Chemosphere 59:693-701. 2005
    Monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters are popular and important topics of atmospheric and environmental research today due to the health impact caused by exposing to air pollutants existing in urban air...
  83. ncbi The history of registered sickness absence predicts future sickness absence
    C A M Roelen
    Department of Public and Occupational Health, EMGO Institute for Health and Care Research, VU University Medical Center, Van der Boechorststraat 7, 1081 BT Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    Occup Med (Lond) 61:96-101. 2011
    ..The history of sickness absence has been found to predict future sickness absence...
  84. ncbi Two statistical approaches to forecasting the start and duration of the pollen season of Ambrosia in the area of Lyon (France)
    Mohamed Laaidi
    Climat et Santé, Centre d Epidémiologie de Population, Faculte de Medecine, BP 87900, 21079 Dijon, France
    Int J Biometeorol 48:65-73. 2003
    ..Two forecasting models were used, one summing the temperatures and the other making use of a multiple regression on 10-day or ..
  85. pmc Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: a case study in endemic districts of Bhutan
    Kinley Wangdi
    Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
    Malar J 9:251. 2010
    ..To strengthen the country's prevention and control measures, this study was carried out to develop forecasting and prediction models of malaria incidence in the endemic districts of Bhutan using time series and ARIMAX.
  86. ncbi From model to forecasting: a multicenter study in emergency departments
    Mathias Wargon
    Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale, Paris, France
    Acad Emerg Med 17:970-8. 2010
    ..This study investigated whether mathematical models using calendar variables could identify the determinants of emergency department (ED) census over time in geographically close EDs and assessed the performance of long-term forecasts...
  87. ncbi Forecasting distribution of body mass index in the United States: is there more room for growth?
    Anirban Basu
    Section of Hospital Medicine, Department of Medicine, Center for Health and Social Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA
    Med Decis Making 30:E1-E11. 2010
    ..Much of the literature on obesity has consistently documented the unprecedented rise in body weight over the past 2 decades. Less attention is paid to future projections of the population distribution of body mass index (BMI)...
  88. ncbi Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model
    Simon Hales
    Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine and Health Sciences, PO Box 7343, Mein Street, Wellington, New Zealand
    Lancet 360:830-4. 2002
    ..Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on human health, and in particular, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases...
  89. ncbi Neighbourhood chronic stress and gender inequalities in hypertension among Canadian adults: a multilevel analysis
    Flora I Matheson
    Department of Health Policy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5R 2M4, Canada
    J Epidemiol Community Health 64:705-13. 2010
    ..The purpose of this study was to explore gender differences in the association between neighbourhood deprivation and the prevalence of hypertension among non-institutionalised Canadian adults...
  90. pmc Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
    Susan Solomon
    Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106:1704-9. 2009
    ..Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer...
  91. pmc Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health
    Ruth M Doherty
    University of Edinburgh, UK
    Environ Health 8:S8. 2009
    ..We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios...
  92. ncbi Focalism: a source of durability bias in affective forecasting
    T D Wilson
    Department of Psychology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville 22903, USA
    J Pers Soc Psychol 78:821-36. 2000
    ..The authors discuss the implications of focalism for other literatures, such as the planning fallacy...
  93. ncbi Prediction of emergency department visits for respiratory symptoms using an artificial neural network
    Haim Bibi
    Barzilai Medical Center, Ashkelon, Israel
    Chest 122:1627-32. 2002
    ..The main difficulty is the limitation of the classical linear models and logistic regression with multiple variables to handle the multifactorial effect...
  94. pmc MicroRNA target prediction by expression analysis of host genes
    Vincenzo Alessandro Gennarino
    Telethon Institute of Genetics and Medicine TIGEM, 80131 Naples, Italy
    Genome Res 19:481-90. 2009
    ..Finally, our data further confirm that miRNAs have a significant impact on the mRNA levels of most of their targets...
  95. ncbi Artificial neural networks as a useful tool to predict the risk level of Betula pollen in the air
    M Castellano-Méndez
    Department of Statistics and Operation Research, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Campus Sur 15782, Santiago de Compostela A Coruña, Spain
    Int J Biometeorol 49:310-6. 2005
    ..This prediction tool may be implemented to create an automatic system that forecasts the risk of suffering allergic symptoms...
  96. ncbi Projecting the number of patients with colorectal carcinoma by phases of care in the US: 2000-2020
    Angela B Mariotto
    Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
    Cancer Causes Control 17:1215-26. 2006
    ..This study provides projections of colorectal cancer prevalence by phases of care (initial, monitoring, and last year of life) to the year 2020 and describes the estimation method...
  97. pmc Early behavior problems as a predictor of later peer group victimization: moderators and mediators in the pathways of social risk
    D Schwartz
    Department of Psychology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089, USA
    J Abnorm Child Psychol 27:191-201. 1999
    ..Behavior problems appear to play an important role in determining victimization within the peer group, although the relevant pathways are complex and influenced by other aspects of children's social adjustment...
  98. ncbi Projections of the costs associated with colorectal cancer care in the United States, 2000-2020
    K Robin Yabroff
    Health Services and Economics Branch Applied Research Program, Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences, National Cancer Institute, 6130 Executive Boulevard, Bethesda, MD 10892, USA
    Health Econ 17:947-59. 2008
    ..The future economic burden of colorectal cancer to the Medicare program and its beneficiaries in the US will be substantial...
  99. pmc Use of time-series analysis in infectious disease surveillance
    R Allard
    Department of Public Health, Montreal General Hospital, Canada
    Bull World Health Organ 76:327-33. 1998
    ..are the selection of the time series, transformations of the series, model selection, parameter estimation, forecasting, and updating of the forecasts...
  100. ncbi A versatile model of disease transmission applied to forecasting bovine tuberculosis dynamics in white-tailed deer populations
    C W McCarty
    Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523, USA
    J Wildl Dis 34:722-30. 1998
    A model was derived for disease transmission in dynamic host populations and its application was demonstrated in forecasting possible outcomes of a bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis) epidemic in a white-tailed deer (Odocoileus ..
  101. ncbi Predicting days of high allergenic risk during Betula pollination using weather types
    K Laaidi
    Climat and Santé, Centre d Epidémiologie de Populations, Dijon, France
    Int J Biometeorol 45:124-32. 2001
    ..Because the weather types favouring pollination and pollinosis are predicted by the meteorological office, this can constitute a tool for reducing the effect of high-risk allergenic days...

Research Grants63

    Eric Pearlman; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..Research Accouting &Budget Title Director, Research Accounting &Forecasting Address Qggg Western Reserve University Address Qggg Western Reserve University 10900 Euclid Avenue 10900 ..
  2. Defining evolutionary trajectories: Molecular adaptation to antibiotic resistance
    ADIL YOUSIF SHAMOO; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..Once fully realized, evolutionary forecasting holds the promise of going beyond the identification of traditional drug targets to the development of new ..
  3. Impact of genetic variation on response to GO therapy in COG-AML clinical trials
    ROLAND BRUNO WALTER; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..cytogenetic/molecular-based risk classification models would present an opportunity to increase our accuracy in forecasting therapeutic outcome in AML and allow the development of improved risk-stratified therapies, a major advancement ..
    JEFFREY SCOTT BARRETT; Fiscal Year: 2010
    ..g., Lexi-Comp) can be searched, indexed and summarized for easy viewing;real-time, forecasting of relevant drug exposure or clinical markers (lab values, pharmacodynamics, adverse events) is made available ..
  5. Molecular Markers in Discoid Lupus Erythematous
    BENJAMIN FRANKLIN CHONG; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..on the gene and immunologic profiles of cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE) patients and becoming an expert in forecasting systemic involvement in CLE patients...
  6. Predict Near Future Bed Exit for Effective Intervention to Avoid Nighttime Falls
    THOMAS HENRY WHALEN; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..RELEVANCE: The proposed research seeks to apply innovative technology as a non-invasive method of reliably forecasting bed exit attempts among the elderly to allow caregivers lead time to intervene promptly and appropriately to ..
  7. 2012 Oceans and Human Health Gordon Research Conference and Gordon Research Semi
    Darrell Jay Grimes; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..and benefits), aquaculture, natural disasters, climate change, metagenomics, microbiomes, transcriptomics, forecasting and remote sensing, changes in fecal indicator detection and emerging chemicals of concern as they relate to ..
  8. Assessing the Cumulative Climate-Related Health Risks in the Eastern U.S.
    Yang Liu; Fiscal Year: 2011
    ..S. as our study domain. We will couple the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) to generate exposure estimates ..
  9. Imaging Nonlinear Control of the Pulmonary Circulation with Proton MRI
    Susan R Hopkins; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..and 2) mathematical tools for assessing underlying nonlinear mechanisms in time series data based on nonlinear forecasting developed by our collaborator Dr. Sugihara. Dr...
  10. Ecology of African Highland Malaria
    Guiyun Yan; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..First, we will develop models for malaria dynamics and epidemics forecasting in the highlands and determine the accuracy and sensitivity of the models using prospective climate and malaria ..
  11. Clinical & Cost Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination in the US
    Sue Goldie; Fiscal Year: 2009
    ..are: (1) to refine a natural history model to function as an open population- based simulation model capable of forecasting incidence, mortality, and costs associated with different cervical cancer control strategies...
  12. Climate Change and Cardiac Vulnerability in Humans
    Antonella Zanobetti; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..effect modification of weather effects by pollutant exposures and sources of vulnerability;and (3) to develop forecasting models to predict changes in blood pressure, and risk of atrial fibrillation, ventricular fibrillation and ..
  13. Cognitive and Emotional Sources of Wisdom in Decision Making Across the Lifespan
    Eric J Johnson; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..connection between crystallized intelligence and an important, specific kind of decision skill, affective forecasting, or the ability to predict what will make us happy...
  14. Acculturation and physical activity: Forecasting and improving Latino health
    Jonathan Fielding; Fiscal Year: 2011
    DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): We propose to expand the UCLA Health Forecasting Tool (UCLA HFT) to examine drivers of health and longevity in Latinos in California compared to other ethnic/racial groups, and to elucidate the ..
  15. Modeling Optimal Strategies to Prevent Cardiovascular Events in Older Adults
    ..gerontologic clinical science and cardiovascular prevention, and expand her methodological expertise to include forecasting and decision analysis methods...
  16. Forecasting the Cardiovascular Disease Epidemic in China
    ANDREW EDWARD MORAN; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..The career development/training activities include mentored training in CVD epidemic forecasting, decision analysis, cost-effectiveness, probabilistic statistics, health economics, computer modeling, and the ..
  17. Evaluating Community Viral Load and other Metrics for HIV Treatment as Prevention
    KIMBERLY POWERS; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..To ensure success of TasP, valid, reliable metrics for forecasting HIV incidence and monitoring TasP effectiveness are critically needed...
  18. A Prospective Model of Medicare Cost Trajectories
    Douglas A Wolf; Fiscal Year: 2011
    ..We will build a short-term Medicare-cost forecasting model that recognizes the existence of a set of distinctive, but unobserved, cost-trajectory types...
    Ronald D Lee; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..and mathematical and statistical modeling,with applicationsto evolutionary biodemography, simulation, forecasting, and mortality analysis.All Demography Ph.D. students must to do an MA in an outside department of their choice...
  20. Improved Tracking for Emerging Diseases from Climate Change
    LOREN COBB; Fiscal Year: 2010
    ..project will adapt new methods currently in use in wildfire tracking to develop a spatial computer model for forecasting the spread of major epidemics, and mass population movements that may occur as a result...
  21. Persistence of West Nile virus in California
    William K Reisen; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..delineation of these events and their precursors may enhance decision support systems and allow skillful forecasting to trigger timely and effective intervention. Concurrent with the WNV invasion has been the elimination of St...
  22. Uncertainties in Modeling Spatially-Resolved Climate Change Health Impacts
    Yang Liu; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..Model (CCSM4), coupled with the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) and the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF)...
  23. Genetic Engineering of Vein Bypass Grafts in Vascular and Cardiovascular Surgery
    Frank W LoGerfo; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..We strongly believe this work will greatly strengthen the application of gene silencing to VG in patients, forecasting its expansion to other clinical problems in vascular surgery...
  24. Predicting Morbidity from Pediatric Critical Care
    MURRAY MICHAEL POLLACK; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..Important advances could occur in quality research and methods, long-term outcome forecasting including pediatric disability at PICU discharge, and decision making by including severely decreased ..
  25. Constraints on the evolution of influenza oseltamivir resistance
    Jesse D Bloom; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..Finally, these computational and experimental tools will be used towards forecasting the potential for H274Y to confer widespread oseltamivir resistance on the swine-origin 2009 pandemic H1N1 ..
  26. An Intregated System for the Epidemiological Application of Earth Observation Tec
    Michael C Wimberly; Fiscal Year: 2011
    ..of infectious diseases, monitoring the health impacts of climatic variability and land use change, and forecasting future health risks...
  27. Patient Decision Making about Breast Reconstruction after Mastectomy
    CLARA NAN HI LEE; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..reconstruction requires a patient to predict how she would feel after the procedure, a process called affective forecasting. Extensive psychological research has shown that people have difficulty making accurate predictions about how ..
  28. The Human Islet Distribution Coordinating Center (UC4)
    JOYCE CAROL NILAND; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..From qualification and auditing of high-quality suppliers to forecasting, tracking, and meeting the needs of investigators, our experienced City of Hope team proposed in this grant has ..
  29. The Role of Pathogen-Environment Interactions in the Pandemic Potential of Influe
    LINSEY MARR; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..Results of this research have the potential to promote major advances in predicting the pandemic potential of influenza virus strains, forecasting of disease dynamics, and development of infection control strategies.
  30. Probabilistic Population Projections for All Countries
    Adrian E Raftery; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..We will develop methods for reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data. We will produce publicly available software for implementing the new methods. ..
    Peter W Groeneveld; Fiscal Year: 2011
    ..introduction of these devices into clinical practice affected Medicare cost growth can critically inform the forecasting of future Medicare expenditures, and thus inform decisions regarding the comparative effectiveness of these new ..
  32. DEX/CRH Response: Mood/Anxiety Disorder Endophenotype?
    Linda L Carpenter; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..We believe the Dex/CRH test could have practical value in forecasting an individual's level of risk for experiencing common and disabling mental health disorders or ..
  33. Training in Population Biology of Infectious Diseases
    Leslie A Real; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..population biology of infectious diseases is an essential element in the training of research experts for predicting and forecasting patterns of disease emergence and spread and for providing tools for the control of infectious diseases.
  34. Quantifying Model Uncertainty for Forecasting the Spread of Infectious Diseases
    Sara Del Valle; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..Therefore, quantifying parameter and computational uncertainties is crucial for forecasting the impact of disease spread...
  35. Continuous-Signal Driven Predictive Models in Neurological Intensive Care Units
    Xiao Hu; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..The need for forecasting ventriculomegaly and elevated ICP is particularly relevant in a neurological intensive care unit (NICU) where ..
  36. An Integrated System for the Epidemiological Application of Earth Observation Tec
    Michael C Wimberly; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..research in which we successfully used satellite remote sensing to develop environmental models for mapping and forecasting mosquito-borne disease risk...
  37. Understanding and predicting cardiac events in HD using real-time EHRs
    BENJAMIN ALAN GOLDSTEIN; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..While substantive research has identified risk factors for these events, little work has been performed on forecasting their occurrence...
  38. Ecosystem disturbance and multiscale transmission of a zoonotic wildlife pathogen
    Philip Craig; Fiscal Year: 2007
    ..will be applied at regional scale and tested using simulations that will enable disease (echinococcosis) risk forecasting and development of optimal control/intervention strategies for high risk communities...
  39. KIIDS: Knowing about intervention implementation in Detention Sites
    Ralph J Diclemente; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..approach may promote a more rapid and sustainable integration of evidence-based interventions into juvenile justice and community agencies forecasting improved health trajectories for juvenile justice involved youth.
  40. Cherokee Nation Cancer Registry
    Kymberly Cravatt; Fiscal Year: 2009
    ..Cherokee Nation have made extensive use of the health information statistics for needs assessments, planning, forecasting and designing new health care delivery models...
  41. Cherokee Nation Cancer Registry
    Kymberly Cravatt; Fiscal Year: 2010
    ..Cherokee Nation have made extensive use of the health information statistics for needs assessments, planning, forecasting and designing new health care delivery models...
  42. Cherokee Nation Cancer Registry
    Kymberly Cravatt; Fiscal Year: 2011
    ..Cherokee Nation have made extensive use of the health information statistics for needs assessments, planning, forecasting and designing new health care delivery models...
  43. Revitalizing Urban Population Projections: New Data, New Methods
    Deborah Balk; Fiscal Year: 2009
    ..The proposed work is systematic improvement in the estimation and forecasting of the future urban world, and will offer much greater clarity on where, when, and the pace at which those ..
  44. Extreme Heat Events- Evolving risk patterns in urban and rural communities
    Julia M Gohlke; Fiscal Year: 2012
    ..versus rural (Black Belt) community in Alabama over the past 20 years, 2) Use regional climate model forecasting and outputs from exposure-response model results to determine the likelihood of extreme heat event related ..
  45. Image Driven Multi-Scale Modeling to Predict Treatment Response in Breast Cancer
    Thomas E Yankeelov; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..The vision for this program is to develop tumor-forecasting methods for predicting response in individual breast cancer patients after a single cycle of neoadjuvant ..
  46. Evaluation of Patient-Matched Primary and Metastatic Samples to Identify and Vali
    Jeanette E Eckel Passow; Fiscal Year: 2013
    ..It is these alterations that will have the highest probability to enhance prognostic forecasting, predict response to current therapies, and inform the development of novel, targeted therapeutics...
    Nathan D Wolfe; Fiscal Year: 2010
    ..The research proposed here utilizes a world class viral discovery laboratory network assembled by Global Viral Forecasting Inc, to, for the first time systematically apply novel molecular techniques to the discovery of viruses in ..
  48. Integrating Quantitative Imaging and Biophysical Models to Predict Tumor Growth
    Thomas E Yankeelov; Fiscal Year: 2013
    DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The vision of this program is to develop tumor forecasting methods by integrating quantitative imaging data and biophysical models of tumor growth to predict the response of individual tumors to ..
    Wenjiang Fu; Fiscal Year: 2001
    ..The methodology allows for trend estimation, construction of confidence intervals, bias correction and forecasting. The performance of the proposed methods will be evaluated with simulated and real cancer incidence and ..
  50. Economic Evaluation of Drug Abuse Prevention with Rural African AmericanYouth
    Phaedra S Corso; Fiscal Year: 2012
    Abstract Adolescent drug abuse poses a major threat to the health and well-being of youth, forecasting poor psychological and social adjustment, involvement with the criminal justice system, transmission of HIV/AIDS and other sexually ..
  51. Forecasting Topiramate's Effect on Cognitive Function
    Susan Marino; Fiscal Year: 2009
    ..If successful, it will alter the common contemporary practice of pushing drugs to maximum tolerated doses. ..
  52. Light Treatment for Winter-SAD: Prediction of Response by Immediate Improvement
    TEODOR POSTOLACHE; Fiscal Year: 2009
    ..Thus, predicting who will remit and who will not is clinically very important;however forecasting this remains elusive...
  53. Comparative Effectiveness of Alcohol Treatments
    Georgiy Bobashev; Fiscal Year: 2011
    ..For those who are attempting to quit drinking, forecasting the next relapse episode could be used to trigger motivational interviewing or other timely interventions that ..
  54. Monitoring, Modeling &Forecasting Tools for Fostering Innovative S&T Workforce
    KATY BORNER; Fiscal Year: 2013
    DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project aims to develop monitoring, modeling, and forecasting approaches and tools for fostering an innovative science and technology workforce...
    Michael Miller; Fiscal Year: 1993
    ..These findings will be used to develope a forecasting model that eventually will be applied to human clinical situations...
  56. Ecology of African Highland Malaria
    Guiyun Yan; Fiscal Year: 2007
    ..malaria incidence and test the accuracy and sensitivity of using weather anomalies for future malaria epidemic forecasting. Second, we will determine the effects of landscape (topography, land use, and land cover) on the spread of ..
  57. End-of-Life Trajectories: A Prospective Model
    Douglas Wolf; Fiscal Year: 2009
    ..To further develop and apply this conceptual scheme, and to investigate its usefulness as a forecasting and planning tool in the area of population health and care costs, we will develop a prospective model of end-..
  58. Modeling U.S. Health Systems' Epidemic Response Capacity
    Nathaniel Hupert; Fiscal Year: 2003
    ..Taken together, these studies will advance the science of public health preparedness and provide tools to improve forecasting of health system capacity and for planning an efficient epidemic response.
  59. Informatics tools to reduce Warfarin errors
    Richard White; Fiscal Year: 2003
    ..Our specific aims are to : 1) modify and enhance for easy use on a pocket PC computer a Bayesian forecasting program that predicts warfarin dose requirements, and couple this with a specially written program that ..
  60. New model for describing and projecting adult mortality
    John Bongaarts; Fiscal Year: 2006
    ..This new procedure corrects shortcomings in existing forecasting methods, including the widely used Lee-Carter model...
    Theodore Peters; Fiscal Year: 1993
    ..between divine and human agency in the creative process; 3) understanding evil and moral failure; 4) forecasting reactions by different denominations and traditions in our society; 5) articulating broad ethical issues; and 6)..
  62. A Longitudinal Study of Influenza Vaccine Decisions
    Gretchen Chapman; Fiscal Year: 2004
    ..of the risk of influenza, and intentions to vaccinate sometimes may not be activated on because of inaccurate forecasting of future preferences...
  63. VP peptides and receptors in diagnosis of breast cancer.
    WILLIAM NORTH; Fiscal Year: 2006
    ..cancer; (ii) assessing the value of such ELISA assays for detecting residual invasive disease and possibly forecasting survival; (iii) ascertaining if the same ELISA assays can be utilized for detecting DCIS in plasma as they most ..