A Townsend Peterson

..This approach provides new potential for optimizing use of resources for disease prevention and remediation via automated forecasting of disease transmission risk...

..Potential applications and current frontiers and challenges are reviewed...

..Overall, model predictions offer a synthetic view of the distribution of this species complex across the landscapes of southern and eastern Asia...

..In this study, we used human plague data from sub-Saharan Africa for 1970-2007 in an ecological niche modeling framework to explore the potential geographic distribution of plague and its ecological requirements across Africa...

..The shifts and changes identified in this study suggest strongly that biological communities will see dramatic reorganizations in coming decades owing to shifting invasive potential by nonnative species...

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..Studying the remainder of these taxa may be a fruitful avenue for pursuing the identity of natural reservoirs of filoviruses...

..The ways in which these differences may influence disease transmission geography are complex; I illustrate their effects by means of worked examples regarding West Nile Virus, plague, filoviruses, and yellow fever...

..Overall, results demonstrate that ecologic niche modeling can be a powerful tool in understanding geographic distributions of species and other biologic phenomena such as zoonotic disease transmission from natural reservoir populations...

..Malaria is of great concern as a cause of human mortality and morbidity, particularly across Africa, thanks in large part to the presence there of a particularly competent suite of mosquito vector species...

..e., western Alaska), but the other groups have quite different movement patterns, which would suggest the importance of H5N1 monitoring along the Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf coasts of North America...

..Influenza A infection was found, particularly among migratory species. Surveillance programs for monitoring spread of these viruses need to be redesigned...

..As such, patterns of differentiation and speciation in this complex are consistent with Pleistocene climate and geography, although further testing will be necessary to establish dates of origin firmly and unambiguously...

..This first large-scale ecologic analysis provides a framework for a more informed search for taxa that could constitute the natural reservoir for this virus family...

..Similar simulations of spread were used to predict extensions of the virus in the Western Hemisphere in coming years...

..More generally, this technique offers the possibility of new views into the distributional ecology of disease, vector, and reservoir species...

..The technique, when tested based on independent occurrence data, yielded highly significant predictions of species' distributions; minimum sample sizes for effective predictions were around 40 municipalities...

..We identify key next steps towards improved forecasting of spread patterns of bird-borne pathogens in North America, which will require substantial improvements in knowledge of the geography of bird migration...

..Hence, although the entire invasion process is indeed complex, the geographic course that invasions are able to take can be anticipated with considerable confidence...

..These data suggest that an unidentified flavivirus, as well as WNV, is active in the Dominican Republic...

..The "plague niche" is likely driven by ecological requirements of vector flea species...

..Surveillance programs for monitoring spread and identification of AIV should thus not focus solely on water birds...

..Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result...

..Taxonomically, generic allocations may need to be changed to reflect historical relationships better...

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..Predictive challenges included a variety of spatial stratification schemes in which models were challenged to predict case distributions in broadly unsampled areas...

..Considerable additional work is needed to establish how these differences affect HP-H5N1 transmission...

..A1 and A2 are ecologically distinct, supporting the previously observed geographic division, whereas ecological niches for types A and B overlapped notably but A1a and A1b displayed no appreciable differences in their ecological niches...

..This method can be implemented by developing countries, given increasing availability of data and the open and well-documented nature of the techniques required...

..We thus could not document distinct ecological niches for H5N1 occurrences in different host groups and conclude that the transmission cycles are broadly interwoven...

..Next steps in this line of research will require more detailed and specific examination of reservoir ecology and natural history...

..This approach may help in identifying Chagas disease risk areas, planning vector-control strategies, and exploring parasite-reservoir associations for other emerging diseases...

..Although multiple taxonomic arrangements are possible, recommendations are for recognizing only one genus, Cyanocorax, with Psilorhinus and Calocitta as synonyms...

..The extent to which ecological niche models reflect real-world distributions depends on a number of factors, but an obvious concern is the quality and content of the environmental data layers...

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..micromegas and the true woodpeckers presents the possibility of a New World origin for the Picinae...

..was found largely on the californica host subspecies group. We suggest that differential tolerance to arid conditions and interspecific competition has led to the restricted geographic distributions of these 2 species of lice...

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..This study applies ENM to understanding the seasonal dynamics of a migratory species under climate change, and uses ENM to identify key limiting environmental parameters in species' responses to climate change...

..Patterns of ecologic similarity matched patterns of molecular differentiation, suggesting that T. brasiliensis is a complex of distinct populations at various points in the process of speciation...

..These results are consistent with hypotheses of (i) niche conservatism (in winter, at least) across a recently speciated lineage; and (ii) the derived state of the breeding (rather than winter) ecological niches of each species...

..However, any or all the members of the complex may have been regionally important, particularly in areas of most intense transmission...

..The long history of isolation undergone by each clade, as suggested by the phylogeny, implies that the species status of each of them should be revised...

..gambiae sensu lato into Brazil was more likely that of A. gambiae sensu stricto or A. arabiensis...

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..6% indicate that 97,640 individuals are infected with T. cruzi at present, including 29,300 chronic cases...

..Our comparisons support a picture of general conservatism of the species' ecological characteristics, in spite of distinct geographic and community contexts...

..The invasive potential of these species is considerable, with all tropical and subtropical countries, and most temperate countries, vulnerable to invasions by one or more of them...

..For some areas, extension of these approaches to still-finer resolutions will provide an improved picture of malaria transmission patterns...

..These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration...

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..A serologic study was conducted on stray dogs, and an ecologic niche model was developed to predict areas where the vector Triatoma gerstaeckeri might be expected...

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..The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples...