M S Pepe

Summary

Affiliation: University of Washington
Country: USA

Publications

  1. ncbi request reprint Three approaches to regression analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves for continuous test results
    M S Pepe
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Division of Public Health Sciences, Seattle, Washington 98104, USA
    Biometrics 54:124-35. 1998
  2. ncbi request reprint Sample size calculations for comparative studies of medical tests for detecting presence of disease
    Todd A Alonzo
    Department of Preventive Medicine, Children s Oncology Group, University of Southern California, P O Box 60112, Arcadia, CA 91066, USA
    Stat Med 21:835-52. 2002
  3. ncbi request reprint The analysis of placement values for evaluating discriminatory measures
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA
    Biometrics 60:528-35. 2004
  4. pmc Testing for improvement in prediction model performance
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Stat Med 32:1467-82. 2013
  5. pmc Biases introduced by choosing controls to match risk factors of cases in biomarker research
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Biostatistics and Biomathematics Program, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Clin Chem 58:1242-51. 2012
  6. ncbi request reprint Standardizing diagnostic markers to evaluate and compare their performance
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
    Epidemiology 16:598-603. 2005
  7. ncbi request reprint Evaluating technologies for classification and prediction in medicine
    M S Pepe
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, 98109 1024, USA
    Stat Med 24:3687-96. 2005
  8. ncbi request reprint Combining predictors for classification using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue N, M2 B500, Seattle, Washington 98109 1024, USA
    Biometrics 62:221-9. 2006
  9. ncbi request reprint Insights into latent class analysis of diagnostic test performance
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Biostatistics 8:474-84. 2007
  10. ncbi request reprint Comments on 'Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: From area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond' by M. J. Pencina et al., Statistics in Medicine (DOI: 10.1002/sim.2929)
    M S Pepe
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Stat Med 27:173-81. 2008

Collaborators

Detail Information

Publications38

  1. ncbi request reprint Three approaches to regression analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves for continuous test results
    M S Pepe
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Division of Public Health Sciences, Seattle, Washington 98104, USA
    Biometrics 54:124-35. 1998
    ..It is hoped that the presentation in this paper will both encourage the use of regression analysis for evaluating diagnostic tests and help guide the choice of the most appropriate regression analysis approach in applications...
  2. ncbi request reprint Sample size calculations for comparative studies of medical tests for detecting presence of disease
    Todd A Alonzo
    Department of Preventive Medicine, Children s Oncology Group, University of Southern California, P O Box 60112, Arcadia, CA 91066, USA
    Stat Med 21:835-52. 2002
    ..The impact of error in the gold standard reference test on the design and evaluation of comparative screening test studies is also discussed...
  3. ncbi request reprint The analysis of placement values for evaluating discriminatory measures
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA
    Biometrics 60:528-35. 2004
    ..Finally, we note the relationship between regression models for the mean placement value and recently proposed models for the area under the ROC curve which is the classic summary index of discrimination...
  4. pmc Testing for improvement in prediction model performance
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Stat Med 32:1467-82. 2013
    ..Analyses of measures of prediction performance should focus on estimation rather than on testing for no improvement in performance...
  5. pmc Biases introduced by choosing controls to match risk factors of cases in biomarker research
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Biostatistics and Biomathematics Program, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Clin Chem 58:1242-51. 2012
    ..Such matching, however, biases estimates of biomarker prediction performance. The magnitudes of these biases are unknown...
  6. ncbi request reprint Standardizing diagnostic markers to evaluate and compare their performance
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
    Epidemiology 16:598-603. 2005
    ..A single approach for statistical evaluation and comparison of markers is not yet established...
  7. ncbi request reprint Evaluating technologies for classification and prediction in medicine
    M S Pepe
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, 98109 1024, USA
    Stat Med 24:3687-96. 2005
    ..Instead we demonstrate that an approach that maximizes an alternative objective function characterizing classification accuracy performs better...
  8. ncbi request reprint Combining predictors for classification using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue N, M2 B500, Seattle, Washington 98109 1024, USA
    Biometrics 62:221-9. 2006
    ..Model fitting by maximizing the AUC rather than the likelihood should be considered when the goal is to derive a marker combination score for classification or prediction...
  9. ncbi request reprint Insights into latent class analysis of diagnostic test performance
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Biostatistics 8:474-84. 2007
    ..Such justification must be based in part on a clear clinical definition of disease and biological knowledge about mechanisms giving rise to test results...
  10. ncbi request reprint Comments on 'Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: From area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond' by M. J. Pencina et al., Statistics in Medicine (DOI: 10.1002/sim.2929)
    M S Pepe
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Stat Med 27:173-81. 2008
  11. pmc Integrating the predictiveness of a marker with its performance as a classifier
    Margaret S Pepe
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Am J Epidemiol 167:362-8. 2008
    ..The methods are demonstrated with data on prostate-specific antigen and risk factors from the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial, 1993-2003...
  12. ncbi request reprint Evaluating the ROC performance of markers for future events
    Margaret S Pepe
    Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, M2 B500, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Lifetime Data Anal 14:86-113. 2008
    ..Applications to two datasets are presented...
  13. pmc Pivotal evaluation of the accuracy of a biomarker used for classification or prediction: standards for study design
    Margaret S Pepe
    Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109 1024, USA
    J Natl Cancer Inst 100:1432-8. 2008
    ..Common biases that pervade the biomarker research literature would be eliminated if these rigorous standards were followed...
  14. pmc Conditional estimation of sensitivity and specificity from a phase 2 biomarker study allowing early termination for futility
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue N, M2 B500, Seattle, WA 98109, U S A
    Stat Med 28:762-79. 2009
    ..The conditional-UMVUE appears to be a very good choice...
  15. pmc The potential of genes and other markers to inform about risk
    Margaret S Pepe
    Biostatistics and Biomathematics Program, Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue North, M2 B500, Seattle, WA 98105, USA
    Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 19:655-65. 2010
    ..However, results to date have been disappointing. In addition, statistical methods to quantify the predictive information in markers have not been standardized...
  16. pmc Problems with risk reclassification methods for evaluating prediction models
    Margaret S Pepe
    Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Am J Epidemiol 173:1327-35. 2011
    ..The author argues for reporting components of the Net Reclassification Index because they are more clinically relevant than is the single numerical summary measure...
  17. ncbi request reprint Limitations of the odds ratio in gauging the performance of a diagnostic, prognostic, or screening marker
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
    Am J Epidemiol 159:882-90. 2004
    ..In addition, the serious pitfalls of using more traditional methods based on parameters in logistic regression models are illustrated...
  18. ncbi request reprint An interpretation for the ROC curve and inference using GLM procedures
    M S Pepe
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109, USA
    Biometrics 56:352-9. 2000
    ..Asymptotic distribution theory is developed to facilitate inference and to provide insight into factors influencing variability of estimated model parameters...
  19. ncbi request reprint Prediction using partly conditional time-varying coefficients regression models
    M S Pepe
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Division of Public Health Sciences, Seattle, Washington 98104, USA
    Biometrics 55:944-50. 1999
    ..The method holds promise as a robust and technically easy way of evaluating information about future prognosis that may be gleaned from a patient's current and past clinical status...
  20. ncbi request reprint Selecting differentially expressed genes from microarray experiments
    Margaret Sullivan Pepe
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 7232, USA
    Biometrics 59:133-42. 2003
    ..Our approach leads naturally to a procedure for sample-size calculations, appropriate for exploratory studies that seek to identify differentially expressed genes...
  21. pmc A parametric ROC model-based approach for evaluating the predictiveness of continuous markers in case-control studies
    Y Huang
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center Public Health Sciences, 1100 Fairview Avenue N, Seattle, Washington 98109 1024, USA
    Biometrics 65:1133-44. 2009
    ..We apply the methods to prostate-specific antigen (PSA), a marker for predicting risk of prostate cancer...
  22. ncbi request reprint Using the ROC curve for gauging treatment effect in clinical trials
    Lyndia C Brumback
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Box 357232, Seattle, Washington 98195 7232, USA
    Stat Med 25:575-90. 2006
    ..Our approach naturally extends use of the Mann-Whitney statistic in a fashion that is analogous to how linear models extend the t-test. We illustrate the methodology with data from clinical trials of a therapy for Cystic Fibrosis...
  23. ncbi request reprint Statistical description of interrater variability in ordinal ratings
    J C Nelson
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Box 357232, F 600 Health Sciences Building, 1705 NE Pacific, Seattle, WA 98195 7232, USA
    Stat Methods Med Res 9:475-96. 2000
    ..We illustrate the method on simulated ordinal data representing radiologists' ratings of mammography images and on rating data from a national image reading study of mammography screening...
  24. ncbi request reprint Effect of choice of reference equation on analysis of pulmonary function in cystic fibrosis patients
    M Rosenfeld
    Division of Pulmonary Medicine and Cystic Fibrosis Research Center, Children s Hospital and Regional Medical Center, 4800 Sandpoint Way, Seattle, WA 98105
    Pediatr Pulmonol 31:227-37. 2001
    ..CF physicians should be aware of the impact of choice of reference equation in both clinical care and research...
  25. ncbi request reprint Comparisons of predictive values of binary medical diagnostic tests for paired designs
    W Leisenring
    Program in Clinical Statistics, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109, USA
    Biometrics 56:345-51. 2000
    ..We report on the results of a simulation study designed to examine the properties of this test under a variety of conditions. The method is illustrated with data from a study of methods for diagnosis of coronary artery disease...
  26. ncbi request reprint Adjusting for covariates in studies of diagnostic, screening, or prognostic markers: an old concept in a new setting
    Holly Janes
    Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109, USA
    Am J Epidemiol 168:89-97. 2008
    ..They draw analogies and contrasts throughout with studies of association...
  27. ncbi request reprint Using a combination of reference tests to assess the accuracy of a new diagnostic test
    T A Alonzo
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Box 357232, 1705 NE Pacific St, Seattle, WA 98195 7232, USA
    Stat Med 18:2987-3003. 1999
    ..Advantages of the CRS relative to other approaches include that the CRS is explicitly defined, does not depend on the results of the new test under investigation, and is easy to interpret...
  28. ncbi request reprint Matching in studies of classification accuracy: implications for analysis, efficiency, and assessment of incremental value
    Holly Janes
    Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N Wolfe St, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA
    Biometrics 64:1-9. 2008
    ..However, we also show that matching greatly complicates estimation of the incremental value of the marker. We recommend that matching be carefully considered in the context of these findings...
  29. ncbi request reprint Time-dependent ROC curves for censored survival data and a diagnostic marker
    P J Heagerty
    Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle 98195, USA
    Biometrics 56:337-44. 2000
    ....
  30. pmc Assessing the value of risk predictions by using risk stratification tables
    Holly Janes
    Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington 98109, USA
    Ann Intern Med 149:751-60. 2008
    ....
  31. ncbi request reprint Postprandial suppression of plasma ghrelin level is proportional to ingested caloric load but does not predict intermeal interval in humans
    Holly S Callahan
    University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA
    J Clin Endocrinol Metab 89:1319-24. 2004
    ..We conclude that the depth of postprandial ghrelin suppression is proportional to ingested caloric load but that recovery of plasma ghrelin is not a critical determinant of intermeal interval...
  32. pmc Gauging the performance of SNPs, biomarkers, and clinical factors for predicting risk of breast cancer
    Margaret S Pepe
    J Natl Cancer Inst 100:978-9. 2008
  33. ncbi request reprint Partial AUC estimation and regression
    Lori E Dodd
    Biometric Research Branch, National Cancer Institute, 6130 Executive Blvd, MSC 7434, Rockville, Maryland 20892, USA
    Biometrics 59:614-23. 2003
    ..We use the regression framework to compare two prostate-specific antigen biomarkers and to evaluate the dependence of biomarker accuracy on the time prior to clinical diagnosis of prostate cancer...
  34. ncbi request reprint Quantifying and comparing the predictive accuracy of continuous prognostic factors for binary outcomes
    Chaya S Moskowitz
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, 307 E 63rd Street, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10021, USA
    Biostatistics 5:113-27. 2004
    ..The methods presented in this paper have the potential to be useful in a number of areas including the design of clinical trials and health policy analysis...
  35. ncbi request reprint Comparing the predictive values of diagnostic tests: sample size and analysis for paired study designs
    Chaya S Moskowitz
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA
    Clin Trials 3:272-9. 2006
    ..Although statistical methodology is well developed for comparing diagnostic tests in terms of their sensitivities and specificities, comparative inference about predictive values is not...
  36. ncbi request reprint Quantifying and comparing the accuracy of binary biomarkers when predicting a failure time outcome
    Chaya S Moskowitz
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, 307 East 63rd Street, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10021, USA
    Stat Med 23:1555-70. 2004
    ..Using a marginal regression framework, we describe how to estimate differences in predictive accuracy and how to test whether the observed difference is statistically significant...
  37. ncbi request reprint Letter by Pepe et al regarding article, "Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction"
    Margaret S Pepe
    Circulation 116:e132; author reply e134. 2007
  38. ncbi request reprint Endoscopic ultrasound, positron emission tomography, and computerized tomography for lung cancer
    Annette Fritscher-Ravens
    Department of Interdisciplinary Endoscopy, University Hospital, Hamburg, Germany
    Am J Respir Crit Care Med 168:1293-7. 2003
    ..72% for PET) and considerably lower expense means it may be preferred to PET early in staging to identify inoperable patients...

Research Grants17

  1. Statistical Methods for Medical Tests and Biomarkers
    Margaret S Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2010
    ..Relative to our previous submission, Aims 1 and 5 have been eliminated while aims 2, 3 and 4 have been elaborated upon and expanded. ..
  2. Considerations of covariates in biomarker studies
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2009
    ..Programs written in Stata will be made available through the Stata archive, the EDRN and through a 'Diagnostics and Biomarkers Statistical Center'web site. ..
  3. Statistical Methods for Medical Tests and Biomarkers
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2009
    ..Relative to our previous submission, Aims 1 and 5 have been eliminated while aims 2, 3 and 4 have been elaborated upon and expanded. ..
  4. Considerations of covariates in biomarker studies
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2008
    ..Programs written in Stata will be made available through the Stata archive, the EDRN and through a 'Diagnostics and Biomarkers Statistical Center' web site. ..
  5. Statistical Methods for Medical Tests and Biomarkers
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2008
    ..Relative to our previous submission, Aims 1 and 5 have been eliminated while aims 2, 3 and 4 have been elaborated upon and expanded. ..
  6. Statistical Methods for Medical Tests and Biomarkers
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2007
    ..Relative to our previous submission, Aims 1 and 5 have been eliminated while aims 2, 3 and 4 have been elaborated upon and expanded. ..
  7. Statistical Methods for Medical Tests and Biomarkers
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2005
    ..abstract_text> ..
  8. Statistical Methods for Medical Tests and Biomarkers
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2004
    ..abstract_text> ..
  9. Statistical Methods for Medical Tests and Biomarkers
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2003
    ..abstract_text> ..
  10. Statistical Methods for Medical Tests and Biomarkers
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2002
    ..abstract_text> ..
  11. STATISTICAL METHODS FOR MEDICAL DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2001
    ..Software to implement analyses will use standard statistical packages when possible and will be fully documented so that it can be shared with colleagues. ..
  12. STATISTICAL METHODS FOR MEDICAL DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2000
    ..Software to implement analyses will use standard statistical packages when possible and will be fully documented so that it can be shared with colleagues. ..
  13. STATISTICAL METHODS FOR MEDICAL DIAGNOSTIC STUDIES
    Margaret Pepe; Fiscal Year: 1999
    ..Software to implement analyses will use standard statistical packages when possible and will be fully documented so that it can be shared with colleagues. ..
  14. Considerations of covariates in biomarker studies
    Margaret S Pepe; Fiscal Year: 2010
    ..Programs written in Stata will be made available through the Stata archive, the EDRN and through a 'Diagnostics and Biomarkers Statistical Center'web site. ..