Mercedes Pascual

Summary

Affiliation: University of Michigan
Country: USA

Publications

  1. ncbi request reprint Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence
    Mercedes Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 830 N University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Microbes Infect 4:237-45. 2002
  2. pmc Seasonal patterns of infectious diseases
    Mercedes Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
    PLoS Med 2:e5. 2005
  3. pmc Hyperinfectivity in cholera: a new mechanism for an old epidemiological model?
    Mercedes Pascual
    PLoS Med 3:e280. 2006
  4. pmc Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited
    M Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:5829-34. 2006
  5. pmc Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland
    M Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Proc Biol Sci 275:123-32. 2008
  6. ncbi request reprint Quasicycles revisited: apparent sensitivity to initial conditions
    Mercedes Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Theor Popul Biol 64:385-95. 2003
  7. pmc Cluster size distributions: signatures of self-organization in spatial ecologies
    Mercedes Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48109 1048, USA
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 357:657-66. 2002
  8. pmc Long-lasting transition toward sustainable elimination of desert malaria under irrigation development
    Andres Baeza
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics, and Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 110:15157-62. 2013
  9. ncbi request reprint Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics
    Katia Koelle
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2045 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 1048, USA
    Nature 436:696-700. 2005
  10. pmc Forcing versus feedback: epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in northwest India
    Karina Laneri
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
    PLoS Comput Biol 6:e1000898. 2010

Detail Information

Publications53

  1. ncbi request reprint Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence
    Mercedes Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 830 N University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Microbes Infect 4:237-45. 2002
    ..A better understanding of disease risk related to the environment should further underscore the need for changing the socioeconomic conditions conducive to cholera...
  2. pmc Seasonal patterns of infectious diseases
    Mercedes Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
    PLoS Med 2:e5. 2005
  3. pmc Hyperinfectivity in cholera: a new mechanism for an old epidemiological model?
    Mercedes Pascual
    PLoS Med 3:e280. 2006
  4. pmc Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisited
    M Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:5829-34. 2006
    ..Our results emphasize the importance of considering not just the statistical significance of climate trends but also their biological implications with dynamical models...
  5. pmc Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland
    M Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Proc Biol Sci 275:123-32. 2008
    ..Thus, these mechanisms should not be viewed as alternative and their interaction needs to be integrated in the development of future predictive models...
  6. ncbi request reprint Quasicycles revisited: apparent sensitivity to initial conditions
    Mercedes Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Theor Popul Biol 64:385-95. 2003
    ..The previously reported mode at zero of Lyapunov exponents in field and laboratory populations may reflect, in part, quasicyclic dynamics...
  7. pmc Cluster size distributions: signatures of self-organization in spatial ecologies
    Mercedes Pascual
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48109 1048, USA
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 357:657-66. 2002
    ..Inversions of these patterns, that is, scalings with a positive slope as described for plankton distributions, would therefore require spatial forcing by environmental variability...
  8. pmc Long-lasting transition toward sustainable elimination of desert malaria under irrigation development
    Andres Baeza
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics, and Howard Hughes Medical Institute, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 110:15157-62. 2013
    ..Our results should help to define and track these transitions in other arid parts of the world subjected to similar tradeoffs. ..
  9. ncbi request reprint Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics
    Katia Koelle
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2045 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 1048, USA
    Nature 436:696-700. 2005
    ....
  10. pmc Forcing versus feedback: epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in northwest India
    Karina Laneri
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
    PLoS Comput Biol 6:e1000898. 2010
    ..This approach should be applicable to malaria in other locations, to other infectious diseases, and to other nonlinear systems under forcing...
  11. pmc Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases
    Luis Fernando Chaves
    Department of Ecology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis 1:e33. 2007
    ..Additionally, there are several neglected tropical diseases whose transmission is sensitive to environmental conditions, for which no EWS have been proposed, though they represent a large burden for the affected populations...
  12. pmc Spatial guilds in the Serengeti food web revealed by a Bayesian group model
    Edward B Baskerville
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
    PLoS Comput Biol 7:e1002321. 2011
    ..Furthermore, our Bayesian approach provides a powerful, flexible framework for the study of network structure, and we believe it will prove instrumental in a variety of biological contexts...
  13. pmc Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity
    Robert C Reiner
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109:2033-6. 2012
    ..The modeling framework presented here should be applicable to cholera in other cities, as well as to other infectious diseases in urban settings and other biological systems with spatiotemporal interactions...
  14. pmc Social exclusion modifies climate and deforestation impacts on a vector-borne disease
    Luis Fernando Chaves
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2:e176. 2008
    ....
  15. pmc Consequences of host heterogeneity, epitope immunodominance, and immune breadth for strain competition
    Sarah Cobey
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 830 North University Avenue, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    J Theor Biol 270:80-7. 2011
    ..Models attempting to predict the outcomes of strain competition should thus consider the potential diversity and specificity of hosts' responses to infection...
  16. doi request reprint Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics
    Aaron A King
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA
    Nature 454:877-80. 2008
    ..Our experience suggests that the confrontation of time-series data with mechanistic models is likely to revise our understanding of the ecology of many infectious diseases...
  17. pmc Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics
    Katia Koelle
    The Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2019 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Proc Biol Sci 273:2879-86. 2006
    ..These results shed light on historically observed serotype dominance shifts and have important implications for cholera early warning systems...
  18. pmc Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change
    Katia Koelle
    The Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 2019 Kraus Natural Science Building, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Proc Biol Sci 272:971-7. 2005
    ..An application of this approach gives an explanation for the recent cholera strain replacement in Bangladesh, based on changes in monsoon rainfall patterns...
  19. pmc Stochastic amplification in epidemics
    David Alonso
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    J R Soc Interface 4:575-82. 2007
    ..Childhood diseases are shown to fall into regions of parameter space of high noise amplification. This type of "endogenous" stochastic resonance may be relevant to population oscillations in nonlinear ecological systems in general...
  20. ncbi request reprint Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans
    Katia Koelle
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2019 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Science 314:1898-903. 2006
    ..It captures the observed boom-and-bust pattern of viral evolution, with periods of antigenic stasis during which genetic diversity grows, and with episodic contraction of this diversity during cluster transitions...
  21. pmc Phenotypic plasticity opposes species invasions by altering fitness surface
    Scott D Peacor
    Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
    PLoS Biol 4:e372. 2006
    ..Our study emphasizes the need to incorporate variable interaction strengths due to phenotypic plasticity into invasion biology and ecological theory on competition and coexistence in fragmented landscapes...
  22. ncbi request reprint Random, top-down, or bottom-up coexistence of parasites: malaria population dynamics in multi-parasitic settings
    Luis Fernando Chaves
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 1048, USA
    Ecology 90:2414-25. 2009
    ....
  23. pmc The roles of competition and mutation in shaping antigenic and genetic diversity in influenza
    Daniel Zinder
    University of Michigan, Department of Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
    PLoS Pathog 9:e1003104. 2013
    ....
  24. pmc The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India
    Manojit Roy
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis 7:e1979. 2013
    ..In particular, the dependence of this malaria species on relapses and the potential significance of the dormant stage as a therapeutic target, are poorly understood...
  25. pmc Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus
    Trevor Bedford
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    BMC Biol 10:38. 2012
    ..Here, we propose a simple model of antigenic evolution in the influenza virus that accounts for this apparent discrepancy...
  26. ncbi request reprint Comment on "A keystone mutualism drives pattern in a power function"
    David Alonso
    Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Science 313:1739; author reply 1739. 2006
    ..Reanalysis of the data shows that the system is not in a critical state but confirms the importance of a mutualism...
  27. pmc Impacts of climate change on public health in India: future research directions
    Kathleen F Bush
    Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 2029, USA
    Environ Health Perspect 119:765-70. 2011
    ..More research is needed, particularly in developing countries, to accurately predict the anticipated impacts and inform effective interventions...
  28. doi request reprint Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire
    Manojit Roy
    1 University of Michigan, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2045 Kraus Natural Science Bldg, 830 N University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA 2 Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Chevy Chase, MD, USA
    Sci Rep 4:3710. 2014
    ..These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks. ..
  29. doi request reprint Malaria control under unstable dynamics: reactive vs. climate-based strategies
    Andres Baeza
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
    Acta Trop 129:42-51. 2014
    ..These findings are discussed in the more general context of elimination and other low transmission regions such as highlands. ..
  30. pmc Spatial clustering in the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic cholera
    Diego Ruiz-Moreno
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
    BMC Infect Dis 10:51. 2010
    ..As epidemiological data on individual infections become available, spatio-temporal patterns can be examined at higher resolutions...
  31. pmc Strength and tempo of selection revealed in viral gene genealogies
    Trevor Bedford
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
    BMC Evol Biol 11:220. 2011
    ..Understanding the process of adaptation in these viral systems is essential to our efforts to combat infectious disease...
  32. pmc Functional links and robustness in food webs
    Stefano Allesina
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Natural Science Building, 830 North University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 364:1701-9. 2009
    ..This introduces the possibility of tipping points in the collapse of ecosystems...
  33. ncbi request reprint Dynamics of the 'echo' effect in a phytoplankton system with nitrogen fixation
    Khalid Boushaba
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 48109 1048, USA
    Bull Math Biol 67:487-507. 2005
    ..The interplay of positive and negative feedbacks appears essential to the timing and the type of events following such a perturbation...
  34. ncbi request reprint Sources and sinks: revisiting the criteria for identifying reservoirs for American cutaneous leishmaniasis
    Luis F Chaves
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    Trends Parasitol 23:311-6. 2007
    ..We use a straightforward mathematical framework to illustrate that misuse of association patterns, as guidance for implementation of control measures, can in fact increase the endemism of leishmaniasis...
  35. doi request reprint A general model for food web structure
    Stefano Allesina
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Natural Science Building, 830 North University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    Science 320:658-61. 2008
    ..Results drive a new model that is able to generate all the empirical data sets and to do so with the highest likelihood...
  36. doi request reprint Homology blocks of Plasmodium falciparum var genes and clinically distinct forms of severe malaria in a local population
    Mary M Rorick
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 2019 Kraus Nat, Sci, Bldg, 830 North University Ave, Ann Arbor 48109 1048, Michigan, USA
    BMC Microbiol 13:244. 2013
    ..It is thought that different variants exhibit different host endothelial binding preferences that in turn result in different manifestations of disease...
  37. pmc Population structuring of multi-copy, antigen-encoding genes in Plasmodium falciparum
    Yael Artzy-Randrup
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Howard Hughes Medical Institute and the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
    elife 1:e00093. 2012
    ..Empirical comparison of patterns of genetic variation at antigenic and neutral sites supports this role for immune selection in structuring parasite diversity.DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00093.001...
  38. ncbi request reprint Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera
    Katia Koelle
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 1048, USA
    Am Nat 163:901-13. 2004
    ..Furthermore, noise appears to sustain the multiple frequencies in the long-term dynamics. Similar semiparametric models should apply to population data other than for disease...
  39. pmc Malaria transmission pattern resilience to climatic variability is mediated by insecticide-treated nets
    Luis Fernando Chaves
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Malar J 7:100. 2008
    ..To date, no study has addressed the impact of ITN intervention in Vanuatu, how it may have modified the burden of disease, and whether there were any changes in malaria incidence that might be related to climatic drivers...
  40. pmc Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation
    Andres Baeza
    Deparment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
    Malar J 10:190. 2011
    ..The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation...
  41. doi request reprint Understanding shifts in wildfire regimes as emergent threshold phenomena
    Richard D Zinck
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA
    Am Nat 178:E149-61. 2011
    ....
  42. pmc Global migration dynamics underlie evolution and persistence of human influenza A (H3N2)
    Trevor Bedford
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
    PLoS Pathog 6:e1000918. 2010
    ..Our results might also aid the design of surveillance efforts and of vaccines better tailored to different geographic regions...
  43. pmc Ecological factors driving the long-term evolution of influenza's host range
    Sarah Cobey
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
    Proc Biol Sci 277:2803-10. 2010
    ..These ecological thresholds turn out to be largely independent of the strength of the evolutionary trade-off, underscoring the importance of ecological conditions in determining a disease's host range...
  44. pmc Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease
    Luis Fernando Chaves
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
    PLoS Med 3:e295. 2006
    ..As in other vector-transmitted diseases, its transmission is sensitive to the physical environment, but no study has addressed the nonstationary nature of such relationships or the interannual patterns of cycling of the disease...
  45. pmc Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change
    Yael Artzy-Randrup
    Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 5:e13588. 2010
    ..Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions...
  46. ncbi request reprint Competitive coexistence in a dynamic landscape
    Manojit Roy
    Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
    Theor Popul Biol 66:341-53. 2004
    ..Specifically, persistence in the model increases in habitats with faster local turnover because of the presence of dynamic corridors...
  47. pmc Influenza evolution navigates stability valleys
    Mary M Rorick
    is at the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
    elife 2:e00842. 2013
    ..By reconstructing how an influenza protein collected in 1968 might have evolved into one collected in 2007, researchers have obtained new insights into the interactions between genetic mutations...
  48. ncbi request reprint Ecology. Ecology for a crowded planet
    Margaret Palmer
    University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
    Science 304:1251-2. 2004
  49. pmc Building epidemiological models from R0: an implicit treatment of transmission in networks
    Juan Pablo Aparicio
    Department of Science and Technology, Universidad Metropolitana, San Juan 00928 1150, Puerto Rico
    Proc Biol Sci 274:505-12. 2007
    ..We illustrate the proposed model with small world networks and the classical example of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemics...
  50. ncbi request reprint Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases
    Sonia Altizer
    Institute of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
    Ecol Lett 9:467-84. 2006
    ..Finally, by focusing on well-studied examples of infectious diseases, we hope to highlight general insights that are relevant to other ecological interactions...
  51. pmc A stochastic model for ecological systems with strong nonlinear response to environmental drivers: application to two water-borne diseases
    Cláudia Torres Codeço
    Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Avenida Brasil, 4365, Residência Oficial, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 21045 900, Brazil
    J R Soc Interface 5:247-52. 2008
    ..A quantitative description of this kind of threshold behaviour is of more general application to predict the response of ecosystems and human health to climate change...
  52. pmc ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change?
    Xavier Rodo
    Climate Research Group, Center of Meteorology and Climatology, Barcelona Science Park, University of Barcelona, c Baldiri Reixach, 4 6, Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 99:12901-6. 2002
    ..This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings...
  53. pmc Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing links
    Kevin D Lafferty
    Western Ecological Research Center, U S Geological Survey c o Marine Science Institute, UC, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
    Ecol Lett 11:533-46. 2008
    ....