Research Topics
| Mercedes PascualSummaryAffiliation: University of Michigan Country: USA Publications
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Detail Information
Publications
Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidenceMercedes Pascual
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 830 N University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
Microbes Infect 4:237-45. 2002..A better understanding of disease risk related to the environment should further underscore the need for changing the socioeconomic conditions conducive to cholera...
Seasonal patterns of infectious diseasesMercedes Pascual
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
PLoS Med 2:e5. 2005- Hyperinfectivity in cholera: a new mechanism for an old epidemiological model?Mercedes Pascual
PLoS Med 3:e280. 2006 - Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highlandM Pascual
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
Proc Biol Sci 275:123-32. 2008..Thus, these mechanisms should not be viewed as alternative and their interaction needs to be integrated in the development of future predictive models... - Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: temperature trends revisitedM Pascual
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:5829-34. 2006..Our results emphasize the importance of considering not just the statistical significance of climate trends but also their biological implications with dynamical models... - Cluster size distributions: signatures of self-organization in spatial ecologiesMercedes Pascual
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48109 1048, USA
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 357:657-66. 2002..Inversions of these patterns, that is, scalings with a positive slope as described for plankton distributions, would therefore require spatial forcing by environmental variability... - Quasicycles revisited: apparent sensitivity to initial conditionsMercedes Pascual
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
Theor Popul Biol 64:385-95. 2003..The previously reported mode at zero of Lyapunov exponents in field and laboratory populations may reflect, in part, quasicyclic dynamics... - Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamicsKatia Koelle
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2045 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1048, USA
Nature 436:696-700. 2005.... - Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseasesLuis Fernando Chaves
Department of Ecology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
PLoS Negl Trop Dis 1:e33. 2007..Additionally, there are several neglected tropical diseases whose transmission is sensitive to environmental conditions, for which no EWS have been proposed, though they represent a large burden for the affected populations... - Forcing versus feedback: epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in northwest IndiaKarina Laneri
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
PLoS Comput Biol 6:e1000898. 2010..This approach should be applicable to malaria in other locations, to other infectious diseases, and to other nonlinear systems under forcing... - Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacityRobert C Reiner
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109:2033-6. 2012..The modeling framework presented here should be applicable to cholera in other cities, as well as to other infectious diseases in urban settings and other biological systems with spatiotemporal interactions... - Spatial guilds in the Serengeti food web revealed by a Bayesian group modelEdward B Baskerville
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
PLoS Comput Biol 7:e1002321. 2011..Furthermore, our Bayesian approach provides a powerful, flexible framework for the study of network structure, and we believe it will prove instrumental in a variety of biological contexts... - Consequences of host heterogeneity, epitope immunodominance, and immune breadth for strain competitionSarah Cobey
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 830 North University Avenue, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
J Theor Biol 270:80-7. 2011..Models attempting to predict the outcomes of strain competition should thus consider the potential diversity and specificity of hosts' responses to infection... - Social exclusion modifies climate and deforestation impacts on a vector-borne diseaseLuis Fernando Chaves
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2:e176. 2008.... - Serotype cycles in cholera dynamicsKatia Koelle
The Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2019 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
Proc Biol Sci 273:2879-86. 2006..These results shed light on historically observed serotype dominance shifts and have important implications for cholera early warning systems... 
Inapparent infections and cholera dynamicsAaron A King
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA
Nature 454:877-80. 2008..Our experience suggests that the confrontation of time-series data with mechanistic models is likely to revise our understanding of the ecology of many infectious diseases...- Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate changeKatia Koelle
The Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 2019 Kraus Natural Science Building, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
Proc Biol Sci 272:971-7. 2005..An application of this approach gives an explanation for the recent cholera strain replacement in Bangladesh, based on changes in monsoon rainfall patterns... - Random, top-down, or bottom-up coexistence of parasites: malaria population dynamics in multi-parasitic settingsLuis Fernando Chaves
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 1048, USA
Ecology 90:2414-25. 2009.... - Phenotypic plasticity opposes species invasions by altering fitness surfaceScott D Peacor
Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
PLoS Biol 4:e372. 2006..Our study emphasizes the need to incorporate variable interaction strengths due to phenotypic plasticity into invasion biology and ecological theory on competition and coexistence in fragmented landscapes... - Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humansKatia Koelle
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2019 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
Science 314:1898-903. 2006..It captures the observed boom-and-bust pattern of viral evolution, with periods of antigenic stasis during which genetic diversity grows, and with episodic contraction of this diversity during cluster transitions... - Stochastic amplification in epidemicsDavid Alonso
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
J R Soc Interface 4:575-82. 2007..This type of "endogenous" stochastic resonance may be relevant to population oscillations in nonlinear ecological systems in general... - The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW IndiaManojit Roy
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
PLoS Negl Trop Dis 7:e1979. 2013..In particular, the dependence of this malaria species on relapses and the potential significance of the dormant stage as a therapeutic target, are poorly understood... - Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virusTrevor Bedford
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
BMC Biol 10:38. 2012..Here, we propose a simple model of antigenic evolution in the influenza virus that accounts for this apparent discrepancy... - Comment on "A keystone mutualism drives pattern in a power function"David Alonso
Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
Science 313:1739; author reply 1739. 2006..Reanalysis of the data shows that the system is not in a critical state but confirms the importance of a mutualism... - Impacts of climate change on public health in India: future research directionsKathleen F Bush
Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 2029, USA
Environ Health Perspect 119:765-70. 2011..More research is needed, particularly in developing countries, to accurately predict the anticipated impacts and inform effective interventions... - Strength and tempo of selection revealed in viral gene genealogiesTrevor Bedford
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
BMC Evol Biol 11:220. 2011..Understanding the process of adaptation in these viral systems is essential to our efforts to combat infectious disease... - Spatial clustering in the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic choleraDiego Ruiz-Moreno
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
BMC Infect Dis 10:51. 2010..As epidemiological data on individual infections become available, spatio-temporal patterns can be examined at higher resolutions... - A general model for food web structureStefano Allesina
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Natural Science Building, 830 North University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
Science 320:658-61. 2008..Results drive a new model that is able to generate all the empirical data sets and to do so with the highest likelihood... - Sources and sinks: revisiting the criteria for identifying reservoirs for American cutaneous leishmaniasisLuis F Chaves
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
Trends Parasitol 23:311-6. 2007..We use a straightforward mathematical framework to illustrate that misuse of association patterns, as guidance for implementation of control measures, can in fact increase the endemism of leishmaniasis... - Functional links and robustness in food websStefano Allesina
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Natural Science Building, 830 North University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 364:1701-9. 2009..This introduces the possibility of tipping points in the collapse of ecosystems... - Dynamics of the 'echo' effect in a phytoplankton system with nitrogen fixationKhalid Boushaba
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 48109 1048, USA
Bull Math Biol 67:487-507. 2005..The interplay of positive and negative feedbacks appears essential to the timing and the type of events following such a perturbation... - Population structuring of multi-copy, antigen-encoding genes in Plasmodium falciparumYael Artzy-Randrup
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Howard Hughes Medical Institute and the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States
elife 1:e00093. 2012..Empirical comparison of patterns of genetic variation at antigenic and neutral sites supports this role for immune selection in structuring parasite diversity.DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00093.001... - Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to choleraKatia Koelle
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 1048, USA
Am Nat 163:901-13. 2004..Furthermore, noise appears to sustain the multiple frequencies in the long-term dynamics. Similar semiparametric models should apply to population data other than for disease... - Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigationAndres Baeza
Deparment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
Malar J 10:190. 2011..The work specifically focuses on the response of malaria epidemics to rainfall forcing and how this response is affected by increasing irrigation... - Malaria transmission pattern resilience to climatic variability is mediated by insecticide-treated netsLuis Fernando Chaves
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
Malar J 7:100. 2008..To date, no study has addressed the impact of ITN intervention in Vanuatu, how it may have modified the burden of disease, and whether there were any changes in malaria incidence that might be related to climatic drivers... - Understanding shifts in wildfire regimes as emergent threshold phenomenaRichard D Zinck
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, USA
Am Nat 178:E149-61. 2011.... - Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate changeYael Artzy-Randrup
Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
PLoS ONE 5:e13588. 2010..Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions... - Global migration dynamics underlie evolution and persistence of human influenza A (H3N2)Trevor Bedford
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
PLoS Pathog 6:e1000918. 2010..Our results might also aid the design of surveillance efforts and of vaccines better tailored to different geographic regions... - Ecological factors driving the long-term evolution of influenza's host rangeSarah Cobey
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
Proc Biol Sci 277:2803-10. 2010..These ecological thresholds turn out to be largely independent of the strength of the evolutionary trade-off, underscoring the importance of ecological conditions in determining a disease's host range... - Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne diseaseLuis Fernando Chaves
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
PLoS Med 3:e295. 2006..As in other vector-transmitted diseases, its transmission is sensitive to the physical environment, but no study has addressed the nonstationary nature of such relationships or the interannual patterns of cycling of the disease... - Competitive coexistence in a dynamic landscapeManojit Roy
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 1048, USA
Theor Popul Biol 66:341-53. 2004..Specifically, persistence in the model increases in habitats with faster local turnover because of the presence of dynamic corridors... - The roles of competition and mutation in shaping antigenic and genetic diversity in influenzaDaniel Zinder
University of Michigan, Department of Computational Medicine and Bioinformatics, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
PLoS Pathog 9:e1003104. 2013.... - Building epidemiological models from R0: an implicit treatment of transmission in networksJuan Pablo Aparicio
Department of Science and Technology, Universidad Metropolitana, San Juan 00928 1150, Puerto Rico
Proc Biol Sci 274:505-12. 2007..We illustrate the proposed model with small world networks and the classical example of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemics... - ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change?Xavier Rodo
Climate Research Group, Center of Meteorology and Climatology, Barcelona Science Park, University of Barcelona, c Baldiri Reixach, 4 6, Catalunya, 08028 Barcelona, Spain
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 99:12901-6. 2002..This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings... - Ecology. Ecology for a crowded planetMargaret Palmer
University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Science 304:1251-2. 2004 - Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseasesSonia Altizer
Institute of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
Ecol Lett 9:467-84. 2006..Finally, by focusing on well-studied examples of infectious diseases, we hope to highlight general insights that are relevant to other ecological interactions... - A stochastic model for ecological systems with strong nonlinear response to environmental drivers: application to two water-borne diseasesCláudia Torres Codeço
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Avenida Brasil, 4365, Residência Oficial, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 21045 900, Brazil
J R Soc Interface 5:247-52. 2008..A quantitative description of this kind of threshold behaviour is of more general application to predict the response of ecosystems and human health to climate change... - Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing linksKevin D Lafferty
Western Ecological Research Center, U S Geological Survey c o Marine Science Institute, UC, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
Ecol Lett 11:533-46. 2008....