Affiliation: University of California
- Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumptionRonald Lee
Department of Demography and Department of Economics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Science 346:229-34. 2014..Although low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living. ..
- The evolution of transfers and life historiesRonald Lee
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States
Exp Gerontol 47:803-6. 2012....
- The outlook for population growthRonald Lee
Department of Demography, University of California at Berkeley, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Science 333:569-73. 2011..3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?..
- Some macroeconomic aspects of global population agingRonald Lee
Department of Demography and Economics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Demography 47:S151-72. 2010..We draw on estimates and analyses from the National Transfer Accounts project to illustrate and quantify these points...
- Sociality, selection, and survival: simulated evolution of mortality with intergenerational transfers and food sharingRonald Lee
Department of Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105:7124-8. 2008..Population-level food sharing with nonkin leads to the classic pattern of constant low mortality up to sexual maturity and no postreproductive survival...
- Rethinking the evolutionary theory of aging: transfers, not births, shape senescence in social speciesRonald D Lee
Department of Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720 2120, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 100:9637-42. 2003..It also explains the evolution of lower fertility, longer life, and increased investments in offspring...
- Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortalityR Lee
Demography and Economics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Ave, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
Demography 38:537-49. 2001..Hypothetical projections for France, Sweden, Japan, and Canada would have done well. Changing age patterns of mortality decline over the century pose problems for the method...
- Death and taxes: longer life, consumption, and social securityR Lee
University of California Berkeley 94720, USA
Demography 34:67-81. 1997....
- An approach to forecasting health expenditures, with application to the U.S. Medicare systemRonald Lee
University of California, Berkeley 94720, USA
Health Serv Res 37:1365-86. 2002..To quantify uncertainty in forecasts of health expenditures...
- Explaining the optimality of U-shaped age-specific mortalityC Y Cyrus Chu
Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica 128 Academia Road Sec 2, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan
Theor Popul Biol 73:171-80. 2008..If energetic efficiency rises strongly with adult experience, then adult mortality could initially be flat or declining...
- The co-evolution of intergenerational transfers and longevity: an optimal life history approachC Y Cyrus Chu
Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
Theor Popul Biol 69:193-201. 2006..We show that if such transfers are advantageous, then increased survival up to the age of making the transfers must co-evolve with the transfers themselves...
- The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting MortalityRonald Lee; Fiscal Year: 2005..Software will be produced to implement these procedures and made publicly available on a web site. Work will be closely coordinated with the Population Division of the United Nations to ensure that it meets its needs. ..