SALLY MARGARET BLOWER

Summary

Affiliation: University of California
Country: USA

Publications

  1. ncbi request reprint Predicting the transmission of drug-resistant HIV: comparing theory with data
    Sally M Blower
    Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095 1766, USA
    Lancet Infect Dis 3:10-1. 2003
  2. ncbi request reprint Modelling the genital herpes epidemic
    Sally Blower
    Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    Herpes 11:138A-146A. 2004
  3. pmc Potential public health impact of new tuberculosis vaccines
    Elad Ziv
    University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
    Emerg Infect Dis 10:1529-35. 2004
  4. pmc The emergence of HIV transmitted resistance in Botswana: "when will the WHO detection threshold be exceeded?"
    Raffaele Vardavas
    Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 2:e152. 2007
  5. pmc Universal access to HIV treatment versus universal 'test and treat': transmission, drug resistance & treatment costs
    Bradley G Wagner
    David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 7:e41212. 2012
  6. pmc Factors limiting the transmission of HIV mutations conferring drug resistance: fitness costs and genetic bottlenecks
    Bradley G Wagner
    Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
    Sci Rep 2:320. 2012
  7. pmc Modeling dynamic interactions between pre-exposure prophylaxis interventions & treatment programs: predicting HIV transmission & resistance
    Virginie Supervie
    Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California USA
    Sci Rep 1:185. 2011
  8. pmc Theory versus data: how to calculate R0?
    Romulus Breban
    The Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 2:e282. 2007
  9. pmc Current drivers and geographic patterns of HIV in Lesotho: implications for treatment and prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Brian J Coburn
    Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, 10940 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 1450, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    BMC Med 11:224. 2013
  10. pmc A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics
    Raffaele Vardavas
    RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California, USA
    BMC Res Notes 3:92. 2010

Research Grants

  1. HIV, TB, HSV 2--EMERGENCE OF DRUG RESISTANCE
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2000
  2. HIV - Emergence of Drug Resistance
    SALLY MARGARET BLOWER; Fiscal Year: 2010
  3. HIV - Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2009
  4. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2006
  5. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2005
  6. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2004
  7. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2003
  8. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2002
  9. HIV - Emergence of Drug Resistance
    SALLY MARGARET BLOWER; Fiscal Year: 2010

Detail Information

Publications44

  1. ncbi request reprint Predicting the transmission of drug-resistant HIV: comparing theory with data
    Sally M Blower
    Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095 1766, USA
    Lancet Infect Dis 3:10-1. 2003
  2. ncbi request reprint Modelling the genital herpes epidemic
    Sally Blower
    Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    Herpes 11:138A-146A. 2004
    ..Current modelling is also focused on modelling how HSV-2 antiviral treatment will impact the HIV epidemic...
  3. pmc Potential public health impact of new tuberculosis vaccines
    Elad Ziv
    University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
    Emerg Infect Dis 10:1529-35. 2004
    ..Even widely deployed and highly effective (50%-90% efficacy) pre- or postexposure vaccines would only be able to reduce the number of TB cases by one third. We discuss the health policy implications of our analyses...
  4. pmc The emergence of HIV transmitted resistance in Botswana: "when will the WHO detection threshold be exceeded?"
    Raffaele Vardavas
    Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 2:e152. 2007
    ..However, the WHO has not determined when this threshold will be reached. Here we model the Botswana government's treatment plan and predict, to 2009, the likely stochastic evolution of transmitted resistance...
  5. pmc Universal access to HIV treatment versus universal 'test and treat': transmission, drug resistance & treatment costs
    Bradley G Wagner
    David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 7:e41212. 2012
    ....
  6. pmc Factors limiting the transmission of HIV mutations conferring drug resistance: fitness costs and genetic bottlenecks
    Bradley G Wagner
    Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
    Sci Rep 2:320. 2012
    ..We calculate, based on assay sensitivity, the length of time each DRM is detectable within individuals. Taken together, our results imply a hidden epidemic of transmitted resistance may exist...
  7. pmc Modeling dynamic interactions between pre-exposure prophylaxis interventions & treatment programs: predicting HIV transmission & resistance
    Virginie Supervie
    Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California USA
    Sci Rep 1:185. 2011
    ..Our results show the optimal strategy for rolling out PrEP in resource-constrained countries is to begin around the "worst" treatment programs...
  8. pmc Theory versus data: how to calculate R0?
    Romulus Breban
    The Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 2:e282. 2007
    ....
  9. pmc Current drivers and geographic patterns of HIV in Lesotho: implications for treatment and prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Brian J Coburn
    Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, 10940 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 1450, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    BMC Med 11:224. 2013
    ..We discuss the implications of our results for expanding treatment (current coverage is only 60%) and reducing transmission...
  10. pmc A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics
    Raffaele Vardavas
    RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California, USA
    BMC Res Notes 3:92. 2010
    ..However, due to complacency behavior, it remains unclear whether the introduction of such vaccines would maintain high and stable levels of vaccination coverage year after year...
  11. pmc Quantifying the treatment efficacy of reverse transcriptase inhibitors: new analyses of clinical data based on within-host modeling
    Romulus Breban
    Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    BMC Public Health 9:S11. 2009
    ..Current measures of the clinical efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the treatment of HIV include the change in HIV RNA in the plasma and the gain in CD4 cells...
  12. pmc How far will we need to go to reach HIV-infected people in rural South Africa?
    David P Wilson
    Disease Modeling Group, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, and UCLA AIDS Institute, School of Medicine, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    BMC Med 5:16. 2007
    ..Specifically, we address the health policy question 'How far will we need to go to reach PLWHA in rural KwaZulu-Natal?'...
  13. pmc Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: insights into the future of swine flu (H1N1)
    Brian J Coburn
    Biomedical Modeling Center, Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA
    BMC Med 7:30. 2009
    ..Finally, we show that by modeling cross-species transmission it may be possible to predict the emergence of pandemic strains of influenza...
  14. pmc Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1)
    Bradley G Wagner
    Center for Biomedical Modelling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, USA
    BMC Med 7:81. 2009
    ..Here we present the first quantitative risk assessment to assess the potential for within-flight transmission of H1N1...
  15. pmc Predicting the emergence of drug-resistant HSV-2: new predictions
    Hayley B Gershengorn
    Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA
    BMC Infect Dis 3:1. 2003
    ..2) To compare predictions with previous published predictions...
  16. pmc The importance of including dynamic social networks when modeling epidemics of airborne infections: does increasing complexity increase accuracy?
    Sally Blower
    BMC Med 9:88. 2011
    ..Specifically, the most detailed contact network and a simplified version of this network generated very similar results. These results are extremely interesting and require further exploration to determine their generalizability...
  17. ncbi request reprint Predicting the potential public health impact of disease-modifying HIV vaccines in South Africa: the problem of subtypes
    Sally M Blower
    Department of Biomathematics and UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    Curr Drug Targets Infect Disord 5:179-92. 2005
    ..A slight difference in fitness will determine whether a disease-modifying vaccine has almost no impact on the epidemic or can achieve eradication...
  18. ncbi request reprint Targeting virological core groups: a new paradigm for controlling herpes simplex virus type 2 epidemics
    Sally Blower
    Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles UCLA, Westwood, California 90024, USA
    J Infect Dis 190:1610-7. 2004
    ..Classic modeling of sexually transmitted diseases has focused on modeling behavioral heterogeneity and designing epidemic control strategies targeted at behavioral core groups...
  19. ncbi request reprint What can modeling tell us about the threat of antiviral drug resistance?
    Sally Blower
    AIDS Institute and Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California at Los Angeles, California 90095 1766, USA
    Curr Opin Infect Dis 15:609-14. 2002
    ..Here, we review how mathematical models have been used to provide insights into the emerging threat of antiviral resistance. We focus mainly on the problem of drug resistance to HIV...
  20. ncbi request reprint Calculating the contribution of herpes simplex virus type 2 epidemics to increasing HIV incidence: treatment implications
    Sally Blower
    Department of Biomathematics and University of California Los Angeles AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Westwood, CA 90024, USA
    Clin Infect Dis 39:S240-7. 2004
    ....
  21. ncbi request reprint Forecasting the future of HIV epidemics: the impact of antiretroviral therapies & imperfect vaccines
    S Blower
    AIDS Institute and Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, 10833 Le Conte Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095 1766, USA
    AIDS Rev 5:113-25. 2003
    ....
  22. ncbi request reprint Predicting the impact of antiretrovirals in resource-poor settings: preventing HIV infections whilst controlling drug resistance
    Sally Blower
    Department of Biomathematics and the UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, 10833 Le Conte Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095 1766, USA
    Curr Drug Targets Infect Disord 3:345-53. 2003
    ..Control strategies should be based upon the overall impact on the epidemic and not simply upon the impact ARVs will have on the transmission and/or prevalence of ARV-resistant strains...
  23. ncbi request reprint Modeling the emergence of the 'hot zones': tuberculosis and the amplification dynamics of drug resistance
    Sally M Blower
    Department of Biomathematics and UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles, 1100 Glendon Avenue, Penthouse 2, Westwood, California 90024, USA
    Nat Med 10:1111-6. 2004
    ..Third, levels of MDR are driven by case-finding rates, cure rates and amplification probabilities. To effectively control MDRTB in the hot zones, it is essential that the WHO specify a goal for minimizing the amplification probability...
  24. doi request reprint Evolutionary dynamics of complex networks of HIV drug-resistant strains: the case of San Francisco
    Robert J Smith
    Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    Science 327:697-701. 2010
    ..It is possible that a new wave of ARV-resistant strains that pose a substantial threat to global public health is emerging...
  25. pmc HIV, transmitted drug resistance, and the paradox of preexposure prophylaxis
    Virginie Supervie
    Center for Biomedical Modeling, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 107:12381-6. 2010
    ..However, if risk behavior remains stable, we find the concern is unfounded and PrEP interventions are likely to decrease transmitted resistance...
  26. pmc Longitudinal study of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection using viral dynamic modelling
    Catherine M Crespi
    Department of Biostatistics, UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA 90095 1772, USA
    Sex Transm Infect 83:359-64. 2007
    ..We conducted a longitudinal study of HSV-2 infection to quantify rates of change in HSV-2 reactivation, mucosal shedding and recurrences of genital lesions, using a newly available model of HSV within-host dynamics...
  27. ncbi request reprint Linking population-level models with growing networks: a class of epidemic models
    Romulus Breban
    Department of Biomathematics, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 1555, USA
    Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 72:046110. 2005
    ..We discuss the computational advantages that our growing network model has over the CMJ branching process...
  28. ncbi request reprint Modeling the potential impact of rectal microbicides to reduce hiv transmission in bathhouses
    Romulus Breban
    Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Los Angeles, California, 90024 USA
    Math Biosci Eng 3:459-66. 2006
    ..Our modeling analyses show that even moderately effective rectal microbicides could be very effective prevention tools for reducing transmission in bathhouses and also potentially limit the spread of HIV in the community...
  29. ncbi request reprint A queueing model for chronic recurrent conditions under panel observation
    Catherine M Crespi
    Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 1772, USA
    Biometrics 61:193-8. 2005
    ..Application to a clinical trial of genital herpes shows how the method can characterize the biology of the disease and estimate treatment efficacy...
  30. ncbi request reprint Effectiveness and efficiency of imperfect therapeutic HSV-2 vaccines
    Elissa J Schwartz
    Department of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
    Hum Vaccin 3:231-8. 2007
    ..Efforts are currently underway to develop therapeutic vaccines for Herpes Simplex Virus type 2 (HSV-2)...
  31. ncbi request reprint Mean-field analysis of an inductive reasoning game: application to influenza vaccination
    Romulus Breban
    Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 1555, USA
    Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys 76:031127. 2007
    ..Our analysis provides a practical method for identifying how many years of free vaccination should be provided in order to successfully ameliorate influenza epidemics...
  32. ncbi request reprint Predicting the potential individual- and population-level effects of imperfect herpes simplex virus type 2 vaccines
    Elissa J Schwartz
    Department of Biomathematics, University of California Los Angeles, California, USA
    J Infect Dis 191:1734-46. 2005
    ..Vaccines are being developed to control the epidemic. We determined the potential public health impact that imperfect, preexposure HSV-2 vaccines could have on reducing the incidence of infection...
  33. ncbi request reprint Modelling an outbreak of an emerging pathogen
    Emily Kajita
    Semel Institute of Neuroscience and Human Behavior and Department of Psychiatry, UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, 1100 Glendon Avenue PH2, Los Angeles, California 90024, USA
    Nat Rev Microbiol 5:700-9. 2007
    ..The model is then used to assess the severity of the outbreak, predict the epidemiological consequences of a catastrophic outbreak and design effective interventions for outbreak control...
  34. ncbi request reprint Is there any evidence that syphilis epidemics cycle?
    Romulus Breban
    Department of Psychiatry, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    Lancet Infect Dis 8:577-81. 2008
    ..We explain the possible reasons for the previous proposal that syphilis epidemics cycle. Our findings imply that it is quite possible that the CDC could be successful in eliminating syphilis within the next few decades...
  35. ncbi request reprint Role of parametric resonance in virological failure during HIV treatment interruption therapy
    Romulus Breban
    Department of Biomathematics, Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior and UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    Lancet 367:1285-9. 2006
    ..Hence, our analyses show that no universal regimen with periodic interruptions will be effective for all patients...
  36. ncbi request reprint Could disease-modifying HIV vaccines cause population-level perversity?
    Robert J Smith
    Department of Biomathematics and UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Westwood, CA 90024, USA
    Lancet Infect Dis 4:636-9. 2004
    ..We discuss the implications of our results for designing optimal vaccination control strategies...
  37. pmc The paradoxical effects of using antiretroviral-based microbicides to control HIV epidemics
    David P Wilson
    National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, Level 2, 376 Victoria Street, Sydney NSW 2010, Australia
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105:9835-40. 2008
    ..Interventions that use ARV-based microbicides could have surprising consequences...
  38. pmc Predicting the epidemiological impact of antiretroviral allocation strategies in KwaZulu-Natal: the effect of the urban-rural divide
    David P Wilson
    Semel Institute for Neuroscience and Human Behavior, and Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, 1100 Glendon Avenue, Penthouse 2, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:14228-33. 2006
    ..Decisions about allocating scarce drugs should consider treatment equity as well as epidemiological consequences. Notably, a Durban-only DAS would lead to new disparities in healthcare between urban and rural areas in KwaZulu-Natal...
  39. ncbi request reprint Microbicides: anti-HIV efficacy and ethics
    David P Wilson
    Science 306:1890; author reply 1890. 2004
  40. pmc Designing equitable antiretroviral allocation strategies in resource-constrained countries
    David P Wilson
    Department of Biomathematics, AIDS Institute, School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA
    PLoS Med 2:e50. 2005
    ..Deciding how to allocate the limited supply of ARVs among HCFs will be extremely difficult. Resource allocation decisions can be made on the basis of many epidemiological, ethical, or preferential treatment priority criteria...
  41. pmc Allocating antiretrovirals in South Africa: using modeling to determine treatment equity
    David P Wilson
    PLoS Med 2:e155; author reply e186. 2005
  42. ncbi request reprint Evaluating the potential impact of vaginal microbicides to reduce the risk of acquiring HIV in female sex workers
    Robert J Smith
    Department of Biomathematics and UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, Westwood, California 90024, USA
    AIDS 19:413-21. 2005
    ..FSWs) acquiring HIV? Which factor would it be most important to maximize, microbicide efficacy or microbicide use? What level of microbicide efficacy and use would be necessary to counterbalance a possible reduction in condom use?..
  43. pmc Rational choices for allocating antiretrovirals in Africa: treatment equity, epidemiological efficiency, and feasibility
    David P Wilson
    PLoS Med 3:e160. 2006
  44. ncbi request reprint Response to Foss et al., 'Care should be taken when promoting microbicide use among sex workers who are able to use condoms consistently'
    David P Wilson
    AIDS 19:2044-6. 2005

Research Grants10

  1. HIV, TB, HSV 2--EMERGENCE OF DRUG RESISTANCE
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2000
    ..The researchers will also consider the potential effects if the HIV epidemic on causing increased morbidity, mortality, and levels of drug resistance to both TV and HSV-2. ..
  2. HIV - Emergence of Drug Resistance
    SALLY MARGARET BLOWER; Fiscal Year: 2010
    ..Our analyses will take advantage of the extraordinary data sets provided by our collaborators in the US, Europe and Africa. Our results will have direct relevance for health policy makers. ..
  3. HIV - Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2009
    ..Our analyses will take advantage of the extraordinary data sets provided by our collaborators in the US, Europe and Africa. Our results will have direct relevance for health policy makers. ..
  4. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2006
    ..abstract_text> ..
  5. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2005
    ..abstract_text> ..
  6. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2004
    ..abstract_text> ..
  7. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2003
    ..abstract_text> ..
  8. HIV--Emergence of Drug Resistance
    Sally Blower; Fiscal Year: 2002
    ..abstract_text> ..
  9. HIV - Emergence of Drug Resistance
    SALLY MARGARET BLOWER; Fiscal Year: 2010
    ..Our results will have direct relevance for health policy makers and Governments in resource-constrained countries, as well as for other scientists. ..