Michael J Pencina

..Then we investigate via simulations the length and coverage probability of this interval. Finally, we present a real life example evaluating the performance of a Framingham Heart Study model...

..The theoretical results are illustrated using a Framingham Heart Study example of a model for predicting the 10-year incidence of atrial fibrillation...

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..We suggest researchers report which C statistic they are using, provide a rationale for their selection, and be aware that comparing different indices across studies may not be meaningful...

..Researchers use a data-driven technique called statistical learning to fashion risk prediction algorithms for clinical situations with low event rates...

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..These findings are supported by four practical examples from the Framingham Heart Study...

..We recommend that researchers clearly define and justify the choices they make when choosing NRI for their application...

..Reporting of standard metrics, including measures of relative risk and the c statistic, is still recommended. These concepts are illustrated with a risk prediction example using data from the Framingham Heart Study...

..Clustering of risk factors at younger ages and increasing life expectancy suggest the need for longer-term risk prediction tools...

..Our theoretical developments are illustrated with an example based on the Framingham Heart Study risk assessment model for high-risk men in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease...

..Essential in this task is the evaluation of methods to accurately identify these unique dietary patterns...

..We illustrate the use of these measures with an example from the Framingham Heart Study. We propose that scientists consider these types of measures in addition to the AUC when assessing the performance of newer biomarkers...

..Parental obesity is a risk factor for offspring obesity. It is unclear whether parental obesity also confers risk for obesity-associated conditions (e.g., a proinflammatory or prothrombotic state) in the absence of offspring obesity...

..Risk stratification may facilitate cost-effective approaches to management...

..Recent experimental studies have highlighted the potential role of the natriuretic peptides and aldosterone in mediating salt sensitivity...

..Prior research has suggested that delay or avoidance of cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors plays an important role in longevity...

..In conclusion, serum C-reactive protein concentrations are higher in nonhypertensive offspring of parents with hypertension. These data suggest that inflammation may partly mediate the familial influences on hypertension risk...

..For CCA-IMT, no significant trends were observed in any of the analyses. The segment-specific association between elevated tHcy level and ICA/bulb-IMT suggests an association between tHcy and plaque formation...

..Hence, we related a panel of biomarkers representing these pathways to plasma markers of collagen metabolism in a large community-based sample...

..The present report presents a single multivariable risk function that predicts risk of developing all CVD and of its constituents...

..Women who stopped smoking over follow-up and had poor diet quality gained the most weight. Preventive interventions need to be sex-specific and consider lifestyle factors...

..We evaluated the relative contributions of circulating biomarkers representing distinct biological pathways to the incidence of MetS and to longitudinal changes of its constituent risk factors...

..We aimed to develop a risk score to predict individuals' absolute risk of developing the condition, and to provide a framework for researchers to assess new risk markers...

..Diet is recognized as a key factor in the cause and management of the metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, policies to guide preventive clinical nutrition interventions of the condition are limited...

..Intima-media thickness of the walls of the common carotid artery and internal carotid artery may add to the Framingham risk score for predicting cardiovascular events...

..This finding suggests that overall diet quality be considered a key component in planning and implementing programmes for obesity risk reduction and treatment recommendations...

..Recent studies indicate that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus is increasing in the United States; less is known about trends in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus...

..We evaluated trends in the incidence of overweight and obesity over the past 50 years...

..Our prospective study does not support the notion that a smaller AoR predisposes to hypertension...

..In conclusion, these data do not support an independent association between lipid concentrations and left ventricular structure...

..Recent cross-sectional studies have suggested that higher serum sodium levels may be a marker of elevated blood pressure. It is unclear whether serum sodium levels are related to the risk of developing hypertension in the community...

..Adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors, DUST was not associated with CVD or mortality risk (P > 0.30 for both). The follow-up component of our study suggests that DUST is not independently associated with adverse prognosis...

..Of patients presenting with HF, 30-55% have a preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) rather than a reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). Our objective was to examine discriminating clinical features in new-onset HFPEF vs. HFREF...

..Carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) is a marker of cardiovascular disease associated with incident stroke. We studied whether IMT rate of change is associated with stroke...

..A growing body of evidence suggests that vitamin D deficiency may adversely affect the cardiovascular system, but data from longitudinal studies are lacking...

..The goal of this study was to compare internal carotid artery (ICA) intima-media thickness (IMT) with common carotid artery (CCA) IMT as global markers of cardiovascular disease (CVD)...

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..Smoking cessation reduces the risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but weight gain that follows quitting smoking may weaken the CVD benefit of quitting...

..Information is limited on the longitudinal tracking of left ventricular (LV) mass over the adult life course and the determinants of such change...

..Data relating circulating CETP concentrations to CVD incidence in the community are conflicting...

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..Common carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), a measure of atherosclerosis, varies between peak systole and end-diastole. This difference might affect cardiovascular risk assessment...

..However, our practical example from the Framingham Heart Study data suggests that the finding might be sensitive to the assumption of normality...

..Although the heritability of atrial fibrillation (AF) is established, the contribution of familial AF to predicting new-onset AF remains unknown...

..Mobility limitation is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The relationship between circulating testosterone and mobility limitation and physical performance is incompletely understood...

..We evaluated the relations of baseline plasma CETP activity and longitudinal BP change...

..To examine whether midlife cardiovascular risk factors predict survival and survival free of major comorbidities to the age of 85...

..We assessed the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with and without obesity and diabetes...

..Family studies and heritability estimates provide evidence for a genetic contribution to variation in the human life span...

..In our community-based sample, longer electrocardiographic QRS was associated with increased CHF risk, consistent with the hypothesis that depolarization delay may increase CHF risk...

..In most outcome studies, human readers identify and trace the key IMT interfaces. We evaluate an alternate approach using automated edge detection...

..We sought to determine change in the prevalence of functional limitations and physical disability among the community-dwelling elderly population across 3 decades...

..The aim of this study was to examine the relation of galectin-3 (Gal-3), a marker of cardiac fibrosis, with incident heart failure (HF) in the community...

..National surveys indicate that 40% of individuals in the United States have borderline-high LDL cholesterol, and 13-34% have low HDL. The lifetime risk of developing dyslipidemia is unknown, however...

..To test if knowledge of type 2 diabetes genetic variants improves disease prediction...

..The relations of insulin sensitivity (IS) to hypertension incidence may vary according to baseline age, body mass index (BMI), and blood pressure (BP)...

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..The relation between diet and stenosis is relatively unexplored, particularly in women...

..While parental cardiovascular disease (CVD) doubles the risk for CVD in offspring, the extent of increased risk associated with sibling CVD is unclear...

..Evidence is conflicting regarding the performance of apolipoproteins vs traditional lipids for predicting coronary heart disease (CHD) risk...

..The short- and long-term risks for developing overweight or obesity are unknown...

..Understanding the risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D) early in the life course is important for prevention. Whether genetic information improves prediction models for diabetes from adolescence into adulthood is unknown...

..We provide a large sample approximation to the distribution of this estimator for making inferences about the concordance measure. Results from numerical studies suggest that the new procedure performs well in finite sample...

..There are both useful and negative aspects of this application, and caution is advised against a too enthusiastic acceptance of it to evaluate prediction rules for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease...

..It is unknown whether noninvasive assessment of coronary vasodilator function in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease carries incremental prognostic significance...

..Our findings suggest that academic and nonacademic sites are equally effective in their ability to identify and retain appropriate study participants...

..Variants in the CYP2C19 gene influence the pharmacologic and clinical response to the standard 75-mg daily maintenance dose of the antiplatelet drug clopidogrel...

..We tested the hypothesis that the relative burden of CVD attributable to diabetes mellitus (DM) has increased over the past 5 decades...

..Overt hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism may be associated with weight gain and loss. We assessed whether variations in thyroid function within the reference (physiologic) range are associated with body weight...

..We sought to determine whether impaired fasting glucose (IFG) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) events...

..0 and 34.9 kg/m(2). We investigated the relative contributions of BMI and WC toward identifying risk of adverse vascular events in a community-based sample...

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..Our data emphasize the contribution of familial factors to the heart-failure burden in the community...

..Yet, prospective studies relating sex hormones to CVD incidence in men have yielded inconsistent results...

..The study objective was to describe self-reported advance care planning, health care preferences, use of advance directives, and health perceptions in a very elderly community-dwelling sample...

..CONCLUSIONS: In our large community-based sample, urinary sodium excretion was not related to LV mass, function, or hypertrophy...

..Although atheroembolization can cause renal dysfunction during renal stent procedures, whether adjunctive use of embolic protection devices or glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors improves renal function is unknown...