David Spiegelhalter

Summary

Affiliation: University of Cambridge
Country: UK

Publications

  1. pmc Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children: an elicitation of international experts' estimates
    Rachel Pechey
    Behaviour and Health Research Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK
    BMC Public Health 13:18. 2013
  2. ncbi Don't know, can't know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks
    David J Spiegelhalter
    Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WB, UK
    Philos Transact A Math Phys Eng Sci 369:4730-50. 2011
  3. doi Visualizing uncertainty about the future
    David Spiegelhalter
    Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0WB, UK
    Science 333:1393-400. 2011
  4. doi Do increases in physical activity encourage positive beliefs about further change in the ProActive cohort?
    Wendy Hardeman
    Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK
    Psychol Health 26:899-914. 2011
  5. pmc Who will increase their physical activity? Predictors of change in objectively measured physical activity over 12 months in the ProActive cohort
    Rebecca K Simmons
    MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, Box 285, Addenbrooke s Hospital, Hills Road, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK
    BMC Public Health 10:226. 2010
  6. doi The BUGS project: Evolution, critique and future directions
    David Lunn
    Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, U K
    Stat Med 28:3049-67. 2009
  7. doi Combining MCMC with 'sequential' PKPD modelling
    David Lunn
    Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Cambridge, UK
    J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn 36:19-38. 2009
  8. doi Allowing for correlations between correlations in random-effects meta-analysis of correlation matrices
    A Toby Prevost
    General Practice and Primary Care Research Unit, University of Cambridge, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge United Kingdom
    Psychol Methods 12:434-50. 2007
  9. doi Efficacy of a theory-based behavioural intervention to increase physical activity in an at-risk group in primary care (ProActive UK): a randomised trial
    Ann Louise Kinmonth
    General Practice and Primary Care Research Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
    Lancet 371:41-8. 2008
  10. ncbi Components of variance in a multicentre functional MRI study and implications for calculation of statistical power
    John Suckling
    Brain Mapping Unit, Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
    Hum Brain Mapp 29:1111-22. 2008

Detail Information

Publications11

  1. pmc Impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking in adults and children: an elicitation of international experts' estimates
    Rachel Pechey
    Behaviour and Health Research Unit, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK
    BMC Public Health 13:18. 2013
    ..We report the results of an expert elicitation study regarding the likely impact on smoking rates in adults and children of plain packaging of tobacco products...
  2. ncbi Don't know, can't know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks
    David J Spiegelhalter
    Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WB, UK
    Philos Transact A Math Phys Eng Sci 369:4730-50. 2011
    ..We conclude that the contingent nature of risk-modelling needs to be explicitly acknowledged in advice given to policy-makers, and that unconditional expressions of uncertainty remain an aspiration...
  3. doi Visualizing uncertainty about the future
    David Spiegelhalter
    Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0WB, UK
    Science 333:1393-400. 2011
    ..Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed knowledge--or from essential indeterminacy about the future--remains a challenge...
  4. doi Do increases in physical activity encourage positive beliefs about further change in the ProActive cohort?
    Wendy Hardeman
    Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK
    Psychol Health 26:899-914. 2011
    ..Future studies could test the effect of such techniques on physical activity and a wider range of cognitive, affective and physiological consequences, using more frequent measurement intervals...
  5. pmc Who will increase their physical activity? Predictors of change in objectively measured physical activity over 12 months in the ProActive cohort
    Rebecca K Simmons
    MRC Epidemiology Unit, Institute of Metabolic Science, Box 285, Addenbrooke s Hospital, Hills Road, Cambridge, CB2 0QQ, UK
    BMC Public Health 10:226. 2010
    ..The aim was to identify predictors of change in objectively measured physical activity over 12 months in the ProActive cohort to improve understanding of factors influencing change in physical activity...
  6. doi The BUGS project: Evolution, critique and future directions
    David Lunn
    Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, U K
    Stat Med 28:3049-67. 2009
    ..We also present a historical overview of the BUGS project and some future perspectives...
  7. doi Combining MCMC with 'sequential' PKPD modelling
    David Lunn
    Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Cambridge, UK
    J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn 36:19-38. 2009
    ..This is in contrast to standard two-stage approaches whereby 'plug-in' point estimates for either the population or the individual-specific PK parameters are required...
  8. doi Allowing for correlations between correlations in random-effects meta-analysis of correlation matrices
    A Toby Prevost
    General Practice and Primary Care Research Unit, University of Cambridge, Institute of Public Health, Cambridge United Kingdom
    Psychol Methods 12:434-50. 2007
    ..Because of potential instability in the generalized least squares methods, they recommend a model-based approach, either the maximum marginal likelihood approach or a full Bayesian analysis...
  9. doi Efficacy of a theory-based behavioural intervention to increase physical activity in an at-risk group in primary care (ProActive UK): a randomised trial
    Ann Louise Kinmonth
    General Practice and Primary Care Research Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK
    Lancet 371:41-8. 2008
    ..Efforts to reverse this trend have not been successful. We aimed to assess the efficacy of a facilitated behavioural intervention to increase the physical activity of sedentary individuals at familial risk of diabetes...
  10. ncbi Components of variance in a multicentre functional MRI study and implications for calculation of statistical power
    John Suckling
    Brain Mapping Unit, Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
    Hum Brain Mapp 29:1111-22. 2008
    ..Thus, theoretical models of power and empirical data indicate that between-centre variability can be small enough to encourage multicentre designs without major compensatory increases in sample size...
  11. pmc The ProActive trial protocol - a randomised controlled trial of the efficacy of a family-based, domiciliary intervention programme to increase physical activity among individuals at high risk of diabetes [ISRCTN61323766]
    Kate Williams
    General Practice and Primary Care Research Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Institute of Public Health, Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, UK
    BMC Public Health 4:48. 2004
    ..While previous evaluations of interventions to increase physical activity have involved communities or individuals with established disease, less attention has been given to interventions for individuals at risk of disease...