Bryan T Grenfell

Summary

Affiliation: University of Cambridge
Country: UK

Publications

  1. pmc Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation
    Matt J Keeling
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 269:335-43. 2002
  2. ncbi request reprint Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens
    Bryan T Grenfell
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK
    Science 303:327-32. 2004
  3. pmc Vaccination and the dynamics of immune evasion
    Olivier Restif
    Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK
    J R Soc Interface 4:143-53. 2007
  4. pmc Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles
    Andrew J K Conlan
    DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 274:1133-41. 2007
  5. pmc Dynamics of influenza virus infection and pathology
    Roberto A Saenz
    Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, United Kingdom
    J Virol 84:3974-83. 2010
  6. pmc Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens
    Julia R Gog
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 99:17209-14. 2002
  7. pmc Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles
    Andrew J K Conlan
    Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Cambridge, UK
    J R Soc Interface 7:623-40. 2010
  8. pmc Modelling dynamics of the type I interferon response to in vitro viral infection
    Tom J Howat
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
    J R Soc Interface 3:699-709. 2006
  9. pmc Integrating life history and cross-immunity into the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens
    Olivier Restif
    Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 273:409-16. 2006
  10. pmc Quantifying transmission of highly pathogenic and low pathogenicity H7N1 avian influenza in turkeys
    Roberto A Saenz
    Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
    PLoS ONE 7:e45059. 2012

Detail Information

Publications38

  1. pmc Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation
    Matt J Keeling
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 269:335-43. 2002
    ..Finally, we consider the differences between the observed fade-out pattern and the more theoretically appealing 'first passage time'...
  2. ncbi request reprint Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens
    Bryan T Grenfell
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK
    Science 303:327-32. 2004
    ..A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission...
  3. pmc Vaccination and the dynamics of immune evasion
    Olivier Restif
    Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK
    J R Soc Interface 4:143-53. 2007
    ..e. immune protection against the novel strain) and (ii) is lower if cross-immunity acts through a reduced infectious period rather than through reduced susceptibility...
  4. pmc Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles
    Andrew J K Conlan
    DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 274:1133-41. 2007
    ....
  5. pmc Dynamics of influenza virus infection and pathology
    Roberto A Saenz
    Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, United Kingdom
    J Virol 84:3974-83. 2010
    ..In particular, induction of high levels of interferon ("cytokine storms"), coupled with evasion of its effects, could lead to severe pathology, as hypothesized for some fatal cases of influenza...
  6. pmc Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens
    Julia R Gog
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 99:17209-14. 2002
    ..By contrast, a short infectious period leads to a single dominant cluster at any given time. We show how the speed of cluster replacement depends on the specificity of cross-immunity and on the underlying pathogen mutation rate...
  7. pmc Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles
    Andrew J K Conlan
    Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Cambridge, UK
    J R Soc Interface 7:623-40. 2010
    ..Contrary to previous reports, we demonstrate that, no matter the choice of persistence measure, appropriately parametrized models of measles demonstrate similar predictions for the level of the CCS...
  8. pmc Modelling dynamics of the type I interferon response to in vitro viral infection
    Tom J Howat
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
    J R Soc Interface 3:699-709. 2006
    ..Implications for in vivo infections, in particular the priming of susceptible cells by IFN-beta during infection, are considered...
  9. pmc Integrating life history and cross-immunity into the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens
    Olivier Restif
    Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 273:409-16. 2006
    ..We advocate an integrative view of pathogen dynamics at the crossroads of immunology, epidemiology and evolution, as a way towards efficient control of infectious diseases...
  10. pmc Quantifying transmission of highly pathogenic and low pathogenicity H7N1 avian influenza in turkeys
    Roberto A Saenz
    Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
    PLoS ONE 7:e45059. 2012
    ..This has important implications for extrapolating experimental results from relatively small numbers of birds to the commercial poultry flock size, and for how control, including vaccination, might scale with flock size...
  11. pmc Intracellular demography and the dynamics of Salmonella enterica infections
    Sam P Brown
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
    PLoS Biol 4:e349. 2006
    ....
  12. ncbi request reprint Host isolation and patterns of genetic variability in three populations of Teladorsagia from sheep
    Tamsin L Braisher
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
    Int J Parasitol 34:1197-204. 2004
    ..Such diversity may be caused by high effective population size, coupled with an increased mutation rate for mtDNA, which has important implications for the spread of anthelmintic resistance in nematode populations...
  13. pmc Population dynamics of rapid fixation in cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutants of influenza A
    Julia R Gog
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, United Kingdom
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 100:11143-7. 2003
    ..Furthermore, if a small number of founding cases are responsible for initiating each epidemic, then this effect of rapid mutant fixation is amplified...
  14. pmc Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic
    Nicholas J Savill
    Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 0WB, UK
    BMC Vet Res 2:3. 2006
    ..This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features...
  15. pmc Stochastic and spatial dynamics of nematode parasites in farmed ruminants
    Stephen J Cornell
    Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 271:1243-50. 2004
    ..Heterogeneity in the hosts' response to infection has to be included in the model to generate aggregation at the level observed empirically...
  16. doi request reprint The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa
    Matthew J Ferrari
    Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA
    Nature 451:679-84. 2008
    ..Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur...
  17. pmc Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic
    Michael J Tildesley
    Department of Biological Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 275:1459-68. 2008
    ....
  18. pmc Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic
    Nicholas J Savill
    Centre for Infectious Diseases, University of Edinburgh, Kings Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, UK
    J R Soc Interface 4:235-41. 2007
    ..Here, we show that such data degradation prevents successful determination of trends in farm infectiousness...
  19. pmc Measles on the edge: coastal heterogeneities and infection dynamics
    Nita Bharti
    Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 3:e1941. 2008
    ..These results illustrate the impact of 'edge effects' on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models...
  20. pmc Stochastic processes are key determinants of short-term evolution in influenza a virus
    Martha I Nelson
    Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
    PLoS Pathog 2:e125. 2006
    ..Thus, predicting future patterns of influenza virus evolution for vaccine strain selection is inherently complex and requires intensive surveillance, whole-genome sequencing, and phenotypic analysis...
  21. ncbi request reprint Measles metapopulation dynamics: a gravity model for epidemiological coupling and dynamics
    Yingcun Xia
    Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore
    Am Nat 164:267-81. 2004
    ..The model can capture all the major spatiotemporal properties in prevaccination epidemics of measles in England and Wales...
  22. ncbi request reprint Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza
    Cecile Viboud
    Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
    Science 312:447-51. 2006
    ..A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints...
  23. ncbi request reprint Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK
    Michael J Tildesley
    Department of Biological Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
    Nature 440:83-6. 2006
    ..This strategy has the advantage that it rapidly targets new foci of infection and that determining an optimal ring size is unnecessary...
  24. ncbi request reprint Epidemiological impact of vaccination on the dynamics of two childhood diseases in rural Senegal
    Hélène Broutin
    UR 024, Institut de recherche pour le developpement IRD, 911, Avenue Agropolis BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
    Microbes Infect 7:593-9. 2005
    ..The observed changes suggest that vaccination against measles and pertussis induced a drop in their transmission. Similarities in disease dynamics to those of temperate regions such as England and Wales were also observed...
  25. ncbi request reprint Planning for smallpox outbreaks
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 425:681-5. 2003
    ..We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens...
  26. pmc Whole-genome analysis of human influenza A virus reveals multiple persistent lineages and reassortment among recent H3N2 viruses
    Edward C Holmes
    Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
    PLoS Biol 3:e300. 2005
    ....
  27. doi request reprint HIV-1/parasite co-infection and the emergence of new parasite strains
    James O Lloyd-Smith
    Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, 208 Mueller Lab, University Park, PA 16802, USA
    Parasitology 135:795-806. 2008
    ..Definitive evidence to test these predicted effects is largely lacking, and we conclude by discussing challenges in interpreting available data and priorities for future studies...
  28. pmc Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms
    Peter J Hudson
    Department of Biological Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 357:1259-71. 2002
    ..Models can be tested further to explore how the community of predators and others interact with their prey...
  29. ncbi request reprint Does multiple infection select for raised virulence?
    Sam P Brown
    Génétique et Environnement, ISEM, University of Montpellier II, Place Eugene Bataillon, 34095, Montpellier, France
    Trends Microbiol 10:401-5. 2002
    ..We illustrate that, depending on the mechanistic details of exploitation, multiple infection can select for reduced virulence...
  30. doi request reprint Directly transmitted viral diseases: modeling the dynamics of transmission
    Jennie S Lavine
    208 Mueller Laboratory, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16803, USA
    Trends Microbiol 16:165-72. 2008
    ..Mathematical models are a useful tool for integrating the data and analyses from diverse fields that contribute to our understanding of viral transmission dynamics in heterogeneous host populations...
  31. ncbi request reprint Heading off an influenza pandemic
    Edward C Holmes
    Science 309:989. 2005
  32. pmc Global patterns in seasonal activity of influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: viral coexistence and latitudinal gradients
    Brian S Finkelman
    Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Eberly College of Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 2:e1296. 2007
    ..These findings highlight the need for more countries to conduct year-round viral surveillance and report reliable incidence data at the type and subtype level, especially in the Tropics...
  33. pmc Cyclical changes in seroprevalence of leptospirosis in California sea lions: endemic and epidemic disease in one host species?
    James O Lloyd-Smith
    Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA
    BMC Infect Dis 7:125. 2007
    ....
  34. pmc When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology
    Shweta Bansal
    Computational and Applied Mathematics, Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, C0200, Austin, TX 78712, USA
    J R Soc Interface 4:879-91. 2007
    ..In general, however, network models are more intuitive and accurate for predicting disease spread through heterogeneous host populations...
  35. ncbi request reprint The genesis and spread of reassortment human influenza A/H3N2 viruses conferring adamantane resistance
    Lone Simonsen
    National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
    Mol Biol Evol 24:1811-20. 2007
    ..More generally, these findings illustrate that drug selection pressure is not the sole factor determining the evolution and maintenance of drug resistance in human pathogens...
  36. ncbi request reprint Mathematical tools for planning effective intervention scenarios for sexually transmitted diseases
    Otso T Ovaskainen
    Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Ecology and Systematics, P O Box 65, Viikinkaari 1, FIN 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland
    Sex Transm Dis 30:388-94. 2003
    ..We studied the dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases in structured populations, deriving analogies from the theory of metapopulations...
  37. ncbi request reprint Loss of immunity to pertussis in a rural community in Senegal
    Hélène Broutin
    Vaccine 22:594-6. 2004
  38. ncbi request reprint Host species barriers to influenza virus infections
    Thijs Kuiken
    Department of Virology, Erasmus Medical Center, 3015 GE Rotterdam, Netherlands
    Science 312:394-7. 2006
    ....