Steven Riley

Summary

Affiliation: Imperial College
Country: UK

Publications

  1. pmc Epidemiological characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza based on paired sera from a longitudinal community cohort study
    Steven Riley
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Med 8:e1000442. 2011
  2. pmc Evidence for antigenic seniority in influenza A (H3N2) antibody responses in southern China
    Justin Lessler
    Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
    PLoS Pathog 8:e1002802. 2012
  3. ncbi request reprint Viral evolution from one generation of human influenza infection to the next
    S Riley
    School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Road, Hong Kong SAR, China
    Hong Kong Med J 19:6-10. 2013
  4. ncbi request reprint Transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in Hong Kong
    S Riley
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China
    Hong Kong Med J 18:45-6. 2012
  5. ncbi request reprint Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions
    Steven Riley
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
    Science 300:1961-6. 2003
  6. ncbi request reprint Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models
    Steven Riley
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, W2 1PG London, UK
    J Theor Biol 225:419-30. 2003
  7. pmc Location-specific patterns of exposure to recent pre-pandemic strains of influenza A in southern China
    Justin Lessler
    Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public, Health, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, USA
    Nat Commun 2:423. 2011
  8. ncbi request reprint Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
    Christl A Donnelly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK
    Lancet 361:1761-6. 2003
  9. pmc Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions
    Joseph T Wu
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    PLoS Med 3:e361. 2006
  10. ncbi request reprint Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome
    Christl A Donnelly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
    Lancet Infect Dis 4:672-83. 2004

Detail Information

Publications44

  1. pmc Epidemiological characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza based on paired sera from a longitudinal community cohort study
    Steven Riley
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Med 8:e1000442. 2011
    ..However, to date, only broad epidemiological patterns have been defined, based on largely cross-sectional study designs with convenience sampling frameworks...
  2. pmc Evidence for antigenic seniority in influenza A (H3N2) antibody responses in southern China
    Justin Lessler
    Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
    PLoS Pathog 8:e1002802. 2012
    ....
  3. ncbi request reprint Viral evolution from one generation of human influenza infection to the next
    S Riley
    School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Road, Hong Kong SAR, China
    Hong Kong Med J 19:6-10. 2013
    ..Rather, there are commonly one or two nucleotide changes. 3. These results hint at an obvious generational threshold for adaptation at the level of the consensus sequence...
  4. ncbi request reprint Transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus in Hong Kong
    S Riley
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China
    Hong Kong Med J 18:45-6. 2012
    ..4. Evidence in support of swine vaccination as a human health intervention was not found...
  5. ncbi request reprint Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions
    Steven Riley
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
    Science 300:1961-6. 2003
    ..We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission...
  6. ncbi request reprint Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models
    Steven Riley
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, W2 1PG London, UK
    J Theor Biol 225:419-30. 2003
    ..This indicates that the observed aggregation of parasite load may be dynamically generated by random variation in the development of an effective immune response against parasite larvae...
  7. pmc Location-specific patterns of exposure to recent pre-pandemic strains of influenza A in southern China
    Justin Lessler
    Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public, Health, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, USA
    Nat Commun 2:423. 2011
    ..These results suggest there are characteristics of communities that drive influenza transmission dynamics apart from individual and household level risk factors, and that such factors have effects independent of strain...
  8. ncbi request reprint Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
    Christl A Donnelly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK
    Lancet 361:1761-6. 2003
    ..We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong...
  9. pmc Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions
    Joseph T Wu
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    PLoS Med 3:e361. 2006
    ..If such a strain emerges, and is not controlled at source [2,3], a pandemic is likely to result. Health policy in most countries will then be focused on reducing morbidity and mortality...
  10. ncbi request reprint Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome
    Christl A Donnelly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
    Lancet Infect Dis 4:672-83. 2004
    ....
  11. ncbi request reprint Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 437:209-14. 2005
    ..Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed...
  12. pmc Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic
    Roy M Anderson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 359:1091-105. 2004
    ..These lessons learnt from the SARS experience are presented in an epidemiological and public health context...
  13. doi request reprint Long-term evolution and transmission dynamics of swine influenza A virus
    Dhanasekaran Vijaykrishna
    State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China
    Nature 473:519-22. 2011
    ..Our findings indicate that increased antigenic drift is associated with reassortment events and offer insights into the emergence of influenza viruses with epidemic potential in swine and humans...
  14. pmc Multi-host transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum in Samar province, the Philippines
    Steven Riley
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    PLoS Med 5:e18. 2008
    ..Here, we characterize the transmission dynamics of S. japonicum using data from an extensive field study and a mathematical transmission model...
  15. ncbi request reprint Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China
    Jonathan M Read
    Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Leahurst Campus, Neston CH64 7TE, UK, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK, Guangzhou No 12 Hospital, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510620, People s Republic of China, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, People s Republic of China, Department of Microbiology, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, People s Republic of China, International Institute of Infection and Immunity, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong 515031, People s Republic of China
    Proc Biol Sci 281:20140268. 2014
    ..These results can improve mathematical models of infectious disease emergence, spread and control in southern China and throughout the region. ..
  16. pmc Evolutionary dynamics and emergence of panzootic H5N1 influenza viruses
    Dhanasekaran Vijaykrishna
    State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Department of Microbiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Special Administrative Region, China
    PLoS Pathog 4:e1000161. 2008
    ....
  17. pmc Minimizing the threat of pandemic emergence from avian influenza in poultry systems
    Kim M Pepin
    State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, SAR, PRC Hong Kong
    BMC Infect Dis 13:592. 2013
    ..The ongoing human outbreak of avian H7N9 in China highlights the need for increased surveillance and control in these live-bird markets (LBMs)...
  18. doi request reprint Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility
    Simon Cauchemez
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
    Lancet Infect Dis 14:50-6. 2014
    ..We analysed epidemiological and genetic data to assess the extent of human infection, the performance of case detection, and the transmission potential of MERS-CoV with and without control measures...
  19. ncbi request reprint Methods for monitoring influenza surveillance data
    Benjamin J Cowling
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
    Int J Epidemiol 35:1314-21. 2006
    ..We evaluated three alternative statistical approaches where alert thresholds are based on recent data in both temperate and subtropical regions...
  20. ncbi request reprint Estimating the intensity of infection with Schistosoma japonicum in villagers of leyte, Philippines. Part I: a Bayesian cumulative logit model. The schistosomiasis transmission and ecology project (STEP)
    HELENE CARABIN
    Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Division of Primary Health Care and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, United Kingdom
    Am J Trop Med Hyg 72:745-53. 2005
    ..This model could easily be adapted to other parasitic infections or outcomes where an analysis by category would be recommended...
  21. pmc Optimizing the dose of pre-pandemic influenza vaccines to reduce the infection attack rate
    Steven Riley
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    PLoS Med 4:e218. 2007
    ..e., less than the recommended dose for maximum protection) may provide substantial extra community-level benefits because they would permit wider vaccine coverage for a given total size of antigen stockpile...
  22. pmc Temporally structured metapopulation dynamics and persistence of influenza A H3N2 virus in humans
    Justin Bahl
    Department of Microbiology, State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Admnistrative Region, China
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 108:19359-64. 2011
    ..Such complex global migration dynamics may confound control efforts and contribute to the emergence and spread of antigenic variants and drug-resistant viruses...
  23. pmc Using models to identify routes of nosocomial infection: a large hospital outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong
    Kin On Kwok
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, 5 F 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China
    Proc Biol Sci 274:611-7. 2007
    ....
  24. pmc Hedging against antiviral resistance during the next influenza pandemic using small stockpiles of an alternative chemotherapy
    Joseph T Wu
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
    PLoS Med 6:e1000085. 2009
    ..We developed a mathematical model to test the hypothesis that a small stockpile of a secondary antiviral drug could be used to mitigate the adverse consequences of the emergence of resistant strains...
  25. pmc Entry screening to delay local transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1)
    Benjamin J Cowling
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    BMC Infect Dis 10:82. 2010
    ..After the WHO issued the global alert for 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1), many national health agencies began to screen travelers on entry in airports, ports and border crossings to try to delay local transmission...
  26. pmc The infection attack rate and severity of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Hong Kong
    Joseph T Wu
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, People s Republic of China
    Clin Infect Dis 51:1184-91. 2010
    ..Serial cross-sectional data on antibody levels to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus from a population can be used to estimate the infection attack rates and immunity against future infection in the community...
  27. pmc Anticipating the prevalence of avian influenza subtypes H9 and H5 in live-bird markets
    Kim M Pepin
    Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
    PLoS ONE 8:e56157. 2013
    ..Our results suggest surveillance protocols that could enable more accurate and timely predictive statistical models. We also discuss which data should be collected to allow the development of mechanistic models...
  28. pmc Complex disease dynamics and the design of influenza vaccination programs
    Steven Riley
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Med 10:e1001553. 2013
    Reflecting on new research by C├ęcile Viboud and colleagues, Steven Riley describes how understanding complex influenza dynamics can aid the design of influenza programs in China. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
  29. doi request reprint Comment on "Seroevidence for H5N1 influenza infections in humans: meta-analysis"
    Maria D Van Kerkhove
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK
    Science 336:1506; author reply 1506. 2012
    ..Although the true risk of death from H5N1 infection will likely be lower than the 60% of reported laboratory-confirmed cases, there is little evidence of millions of missed infections...
  30. pmc Estimation of the serial interval of influenza
    Benjamin J Cowling
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health and bMicrobiology, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
    Epidemiology 20:344-7. 2009
    ..We estimate the serial interval of laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission in households...
  31. ncbi request reprint The contribution of social behaviour to the transmission of influenza a in a human population
    Adam J Kucharski
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Pathog 10:e1004206. 2014
    ..Our results suggest it is possible to profile the social structure of different populations and to use these aggregated data to predict their inherent transmission potential. ..
  32. doi request reprint Antiviral stockpiles for influenza pandemics from the household perspective: treatment alone versus treatment with prophylaxis
    Kin On Kwok
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, 5 F 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
    Epidemics 5:92-7. 2013
    ..More generally, our study illustrates the potential value of considering viewpoints other than a central authority when conducting model-based analysis of interventions against infectious disease...
  33. pmc Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, St Mary s, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101:6146-51. 2004
    ..Direct estimation of the proportion of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections is achievable by contact tracing and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent...
  34. pmc Modelling the proportion of influenza infections within households during pandemic and non-pandemic years
    Kin On Kwok
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    PLoS ONE 6:e22089. 2011
    ..In general, mitigation measures such as isolation and quarantine are more effective at the population level if the proportion of household transmission is low...
  35. pmc Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling
    Maria D Van Kerkhove
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Med 7:e1000275. 2010
    ..In light of the 2009 influenza pandemic and potential future pandemics, Maria Van Kerkhove and colleagues anticipate six public health challenges and the data needed to support sound public health decision making...
  36. pmc Spatial considerations for the allocation of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination in the United States
    Joseph T Wu
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
    Proc Biol Sci 274:2811-7. 2007
    ..Therefore, despite substantial potential benefits of non-pro-rata policies, our results suggest that the current HHS policy of pro-rata allocation by state is a good compromise in terms of simplicity, robustness, equity and efficiency...
  37. ncbi request reprint Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease
    Steven Riley
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    Science 316:1298-301. 2007
    ..It also demonstrates the need to develop a simple model of household demographics, so that these large-scale models can be extended to the investigation of long-time scale human pathogens, such as tuberculosis and HIV...
  38. ncbi request reprint Estimating and modeling the dynamics of the intensity of infection with schistosoma japonicum in villagers of leyte, Philippines. Part II: Intensity-specific transmission of S. japonicum. The schistosomiasis transmission and ecology project
    Steven Riley
    Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
    Am J Trop Med Hyg 72:754-61. 2005
    ..Furthermore, we show that a sudden reduction in snail population size would affect high prevalence and low prevalence communities in different ways...
  39. ncbi request reprint Simulations of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa: sexual transmission versus transmission through unsafe medical injections
    Katherine French
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
    Sex Transm Dis 33:127-34. 2006
    ..Heterosexual transmission has long been considered the predominant route of transmission of HIV-1 in sub-Saharan Africa. However, some have argued that unsafe medical injections account for the majority of transmission in this region...
  40. ncbi request reprint The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients
    Gabriel M Leung
    University of Hong Kong, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and Hong Kong Hospital Authority, Hong Kong, China
    Ann Intern Med 141:662-73. 2004
    ..As yet, no one has written a comprehensive epidemiologic account of a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak from an affected country...
  41. pmc Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain
    Steven Riley
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:12637-42. 2006
    ....
  42. pmc SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contacts
    Gabriel M Leung
    University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    Emerg Infect Dis 10:1653-6. 2004
    ..19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus...
  43. ncbi request reprint Effect of poor census data on population maps
    Andrew J Tatem
    Science 318:43; author reply 43. 2007
  44. pmc A cross-sectional study of the prevalence of intensity of infection with Schistosoma japonicum in 50 irrigated and rain-fed villages in Samar Province, the Philippines
    Mushfiqur R Tarafder
    Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, College of Public Health, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma, USA
    BMC Public Health 6:61. 2006
    ..The purpose of this report is to describe the village-to-village variation in the prevalence of two levels of infection intensity across 50 villages of Samar Province, the Philippines...