Timothy B Hallett

..Earlier ART and PrEP might both reduce HIV-1 transmission in this group, but the merits and synergies of these different approaches have not been analyzed...

..To describe the needs for information on the rate of new HIV infections (incidence) in epidemics and review developments in various methods for its estimation...

..To estimate HIV incidence in the general population in countries where there have been two recent household-based HIV prevalence surveys (the Dominican Republic, Mali, Niger, Tanzania, and Zambia)...

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..However, these projections need revision to incorporate new data on the effect of male circumcision on the risk of acquiring and transmitting HIV...

..Repeated cross-sectional measures of HIV prevalence are now becoming available for general populations in many countries, and we aim to develop and validate methods that use these data to estimate HIV incidence...

..We have used a mathematical model, parameterised using existing trial findings, to understand and predict the impact of circumcision programmes at the population level...

..HIV Testing and Counselling (TC) programmes are being scaled-up as part of efforts to provide universal access to antiretroviral treatment (ART)...

..We investigated the potential influence of alternative patient management and ART initiation strategies on the impact of ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa...

..Complicated HIV transmission dynamics make it unclear how to design and interpret results from community-randomized controlled trials (CRCT) of interventions to prevent infection...

..This finding can be explained by their having a greater lifetime number of sexual partners than those whose first sexual experience occurs later...

..The importance of reducing cross-generational sex (young women having sex with older men) and delaying age at first sex on the spread of HIV at the population-level has been presumed but not scientifically investigated and quantified...

..Remarkably little is known about how best to reduce HIV incidence because most trials focus on the reduction of risk behaviours and assume an effect on HIV incidence...

..To develop projections of the resources required (person-years of drug supply and healthcare worker time) for universal access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Zimbabwe...

..To determine whether observed changes in HIV prevalence in countries with generalised HIV epidemics are associated with changes in sexual risk behaviour...

..To determine how the risk of HIV transmission from homosexual men receiving antiretroviral treatment is related to patterns of patient monitoring and condom use...

..Sexually experienced men and women reported reductions in casual sex of 49 and 22%, respectively, whereas recent cohorts reported delayed sexual debut. Selective AIDS-induced mortality contributed to the decline in HIV prevalence...

..This study suggests that, among women, particularly those who are infected, behavioural risk reduction does occur following VCT...

..To compare alternative methods to vital registration systems for estimating adult mortality, and describe patterns of mortality in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, which has been severely affected by HIV...

..We aimed to develop a method to evaluate evidence for changes in risk behaviour altering the course of an HIV epidemic...

..We assessed the contributions of rising mortality, falling HIV incidence and sexual behaviour change to the decline in HIV prevalence...

..To explore the effect of different patterns of condom use by clients and female sex workers (FSW) on HIV transmission in Mexico...

..This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART...

..We identified key questions to be asked when conducting an analysis and when interpreting the model results and make recommendations for strengthening the model's application in the future...

..The degree of rigor in model development and assessment can vary greatly, and there is a danger that existing beliefs inappropriately influence judgments about model assumptions and results...

..Consequently, there is a need to understand if and how PrEP can be used cost-effectively to prevent HIV infection in such populations...

..The sensitivity of epidemic spread to the amount of concurrency is greater than predicted by models that do not include primary HIV infection...

..At the epicentre of the HIV epidemic in Eastern Africa, HIV prevalence has appeared to stabilise in most countries. However, there are indications that the HIV epidemic in Malawi has recently declined...

..Declines in the prevalence of HIV might occur due to natural epidemic dynamics rather than changes in risk behaviour. Determining the cause of an observed decline is important in understanding the epidemiology of HIV...

..AIDS is the main driver of young widowhood in southern Africa...

..We estimate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral-based HIV prevention strategies...

..We aimed to understand the attitudes, preferences and acceptance of oral and parenteral PrEP among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Thailand...

..The preplanned, interactive use of mathematical models during C-RCTs will also provide a valuable opportunity to validate and refine model projections...

..Some, but not all, observational studies have suggested an increase in the risk of HIV acquisition for women using injectable hormonal contraception (IHC)...

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..This study uses observational data collected as part of Zambia's male circumcision program to measure sexual behavior in the postsurgical healing period and to model its influence on HIV transmission for men and their partners...

..To explain differences in survival in the first three years of combination anti-retroviral therapy (cART) between HIV treatment centres in The Netherlands...