Research Topics
| Christophe FraserSummaryAffiliation: Imperial College Country: UK Publications
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Publications
Influenza pandemic vaccines: spread them thin?Christophe Fraser
Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
PLoS Med 4:e228. 2007
Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemicChristophe Fraser
Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Modelling and Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
Am J Epidemiol 174:505-14. 2011..Together, these analyses demonstrate that the 1918 influenza virus, though highly virulent, was only moderately transmissible and thus in a modern context would be considered controllable...
HIV recombination: what is the impact on antiretroviral therapy?Christophe Fraser
Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
J R Soc Interface 2:489-503. 2005....- Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllableChristophe Fraser
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, St Mary s, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101:6146-51. 2004..Direct estimation of the proportion of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections is achievable by contact tracing and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent... - The bacterial species challenge: making sense of genetic and ecological diversityChristophe Fraser
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
Science 323:741-6. 2009..The resulting data may help to discriminate among the many theories of prokaryotic species that have been produced to date... - Recombination and the nature of bacterial speciationChristophe Fraser
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
Science 315:476-80. 2007..Hence, to make sense of bacterial diversity, we need data not only from genetic surveys but also from experimental determination of selection pressures and recombination rates and from theoretical models... - Variation in HIV-1 set-point viral load: epidemiological analysis and an evolutionary hypothesisChristophe Fraser
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:17441-6. 2007..We discuss how this evolutionary hypothesis can be tested, review the evidence available to date, and highlight directions for future research... - Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemicChristophe Fraser
Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
PLoS ONE 2:e758. 2007.... - Neutral microepidemic evolution of bacterial pathogensChristophe Fraser
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary s Hospital Campus, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 102:1968-73. 2005..These findings challenge the assumption that strains of bacterial pathogens differ markedly in relative fitness... 
Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast AsiaNeil M Ferguson
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Nature 437:209-14. 2005..Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed...- Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndromeChristl A Donnelly
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
Lancet Infect Dis 4:672-83. 2004.... - Estimating the public health impact of the effect of herpes simplex virus suppressive therapy on plasma HIV-1 viral loadRebecca F Baggaley
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
AIDS 23:1005-13. 2009..Our aim was to estimate the population-level impact of suppressive therapy on female-to-male HIV-1 sexual transmission... - Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemicNeil M Ferguson
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Nature 442:448-52. 2006..Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics... - Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemicRoy M Anderson
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 359:1091-105. 2004..These lessons learnt from the SARS experience are presented in an epidemiological and public health context... - Public health. Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemicNeil M Ferguson
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Science 304:968-9. 2004 - Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong KongChristl A Donnelly
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK
Lancet 361:1761-6. 2003..We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong... - Comparative potency of three antiretroviral therapy regimes in primary HIV infectionSarah Fidler
Department of GUM and Communicable Diseases, Wright Fleming Institute, Jefferiss Trust Laboratories, London, UK
AIDS 20:247-52. 2006..To best achieve the most rapid reduction in primary viraemia we compared three different ART regimens in PHI... - Mathematical models of infectious disease transmissionNicholas C Grassly
Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
Nat Rev Microbiol 6:477-87. 2008 - Viral replication under combination antiretroviral therapy: a comparison of four different regimensAzra C Ghani
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 30:167-76. 2002..04; 95% CI, 1.0-1.07). Measurement of viral load after approximately 7 days provided the most accurate measure of the degree of viral suppression induced by a given drug regimen... - Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United StatesSimon Cauchemez
Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London
N Engl J Med 361:2619-27. 2009..Risk factors for transmission remain largely uncharacterized. We characterize the risk factors and describe the transmission of the virus within households... - Transmission selects for HIV-1 strains of intermediate virulence: a modelling approachGeorge Shirreff
Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
PLoS Comput Biol 7:e1002185. 2011..The model provides a useful framework under which to examine the future evolution of HIV-1 virulence... - Assessing the reliability of eBURST using simulated populations with known ancestryKatherine M E Turner
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, St Mary s Hospital Campus, Norfolk Place, London, UK
BMC Microbiol 7:30. 2007..The reliability of eBURST was evaluated using populations simulated with different levels of recombination in which the ancestry of all strains was known... - Antigen-driven T-cell turnoverChristophe Fraser
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, Paddington, London W21PG, UK
J Theor Biol 219:177-92. 2002..We show that our model can resolve the paradox of high levels of viral replication occurring while only a small fraction of cells are infected... - Modelling bacterial speciationWilliam P Hanage
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Hospital Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 361:2039-44. 2006.... - Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countriesLulla Opatowski
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
PLoS Pathog 7:e1002225. 2011..Our analysis indicates that between-country-differences in transmission were at least partly due to differences in population demography... - Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findingsChristophe Fraser
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Science 324:1557-61. 2009..Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than that of seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics... - The effect on treatment comparisons of different measurement frequencies in human immunodeficiency virus observational databasesJames T Griffin
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
Am J Epidemiol 163:676-83. 2006.... - Evidence that pneumococcal serotype replacement in Massachusetts following conjugate vaccination is now completeWilliam P Hanage
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
Epidemics 2:80-4. 2010..For other serotypes, the future course of replacement disease remains to be determined... - HIV-1 transmitting couples have similar viral load set-points in Rakai, UgandaT Deirdre Hollingsworth
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
PLoS Pathog 6:e1000876. 2010..The most parsimonious explanation is that this is due to shared characteristics of the transmitted virus, a finding which sheds light on both the role of viral factors in HIV-1 pathogenesis and on the evolution of the virus... - Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenzaJames Truscott
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London W2 1PG, UK
J R Soc Interface 9:304-12. 2012..We discuss our findings in the context of other work fitting to seasonal influenza data... - Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regionsJames Truscott
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London Imperial College London MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London and MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College
PLoS Curr 1:RRN1125. 2009.... - Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventionsSteven Riley
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
Science 300:1961-6. 2003..We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission... - Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplacesLorenzo Pellis
Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Hospital, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
J Math Biol 63:691-734. 2011..g. reproduction numbers, critical vaccination coverage, epidemic final size) to new results on the epidemic dynamics... - The impact of homologous recombination on the generation of diversity in bacteriaWilliam P Hanage
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary s Hospital Campus, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
J Theor Biol 239:210-9. 2006..We also demonstrate that by fitting the neutral model to experimental data, more informative and precise estimates of the relative roles of recombination and mutation may be obtained... - Hyper-recombination, diversity, and antibiotic resistance in pneumococcusWilliam Paul Hanage
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Science 324:1454-7. 2009..This could have consequences for the reemergence of drug resistance after pneumococcal vaccination and also for our understanding of diversification and speciation in recombinogenic bacteria... - HIV-1 transmission, by stage of infectionT Deirdre Hollingsworth
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
J Infect Dis 198:687-93. 2008.... - HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South AfricaJeffrey W Eaton
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
PLoS Med 9:e1001245. 2012..This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART... - Sequences, sequence clusters and bacterial speciesWilliam P Hanage
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Hospital Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 361:1917-27. 2006..The advantages and problems in using sequence clusters as the basis of species assignments are discussed... - Seasonal infectious disease epidemiologyNicholas C Grassly
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Proc Biol Sci 273:2541-50. 2006..The synthesis of seasonal infectious disease epidemiology attempted by this paper highlights the need for further empirical and theoretical work... - The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spreadLorenzo Pellis
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
Math Biosci 216:63-70. 2008..In this paper, we reanalyse Ludwig's result, highlighting some of the conditions under which it does not hold and providing a general framework to examine the differences between the continuous-time and the discrete-generation process... - Fuzzy species among recombinogenic bacteriaWilliam P Hanage
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
BMC Biol 3:6. 2005.... - Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictionsRebecca F Baggaley
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK
Curr Opin HIV AIDS 5:269-76. 2010..To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact... - Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence dataEric de Silva
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
J R Soc Interface 9:1797-808. 2012..We illustrate this with an application to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic... - New strategies for the elimination of polio from IndiaNicholas C Grassly
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, UK
Science 314:1150-3. 2006..We analyze strategies to counteract this and show that switching to monovalent vaccine may finally interrupt virus transmission... - Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modelingMaria D Van Kerkhove
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
PLoS Med 7:e1000275. 2010..In light of the 2009 influenza pandemic and potential future pandemics, Maria Van Kerkhove and colleagues anticipate six public health challenges and the data needed to support sound public health decision making... - New insights into the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 at the within-host and epidemiological levelsKatrina A Lythgoe
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, London W2 1PG, UK
Proc Biol Sci 279:3367-75. 2012..Moreover, early infection viruses should be the major target for vaccine design, because these are the viral strains primarily involved in transmission... - Increasing sexual risk behaviour among Dutch men who have sex with men: mathematical models versus prospective cohort dataArd van Sighem
aStichting HIV Monitoring, Amsterdam bDepartment of Research, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Cluster of Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam, the Netherlands cDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK dDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Centre for Infection and Immunity Amsterdam CINIMA, Academic Medical Centre, The Netherlands
AIDS 26:1840-3. 2012..The agreement between the two approaches was very good, confirming that in terms of incidence, increasing risk behaviour between MSM is offsetting benefits offered by enhanced testing and treatment... - Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United StatesNicholas C Grassly
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
Nature 433:417-21. 2005..We further demonstrate increased synchrony of syphilis oscillations across cities over time, providing empirical evidence for an increasingly connected sexual network in the United States... - Modeling the long-term antibody response of a human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like particle (VLP) type 16 prophylactic vaccineChristophe Fraser
Imperial College London, London, UK
Vaccine 25:4324-33. 2007.... - Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United StatesM Elizabeth Halloran
Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105:4639-44. 2008.... - SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contactsGabriel M Leung
University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
Emerg Infect Dis 10:1653-6. 2004..19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus... - Let it be sexual--selection, aggregation and distortion used to construct a case against sexual transmissionGeoff P Garnett
Int J STD AIDS 14:782-4; author reply 784-6. 2003 - CD4 cell counts of 800 cells/mm3 or greater after 7 years of highly active antiretroviral therapy are feasible in most patients starting with 350 cells/mm3 or greaterLuuk Gras
HIV Monitoring Foundation, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 45:183-92. 2007..CD4 cell count changes in therapy-naive patients were investigated during 7 years of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in an observational cohort... - A resurgent HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of potent antiretroviral therapyDaniela Bezemer
HIV Monitoring Foundation, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
AIDS 22:1071-7. 2008..The aim of this study was to quantify the impact that highly active antiretroviral therapy had on the epidemic... - Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventionsJoseph T Wu
Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
PLoS Med 3:e361. 2006..Our findings suggest that the additional benefits and resource requirements of household-based interventions in reducing average levels of transmission should also be considered, even when expected levels of compliance are only moderate... - The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patientsGabriel M Leung
University of Hong Kong, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and Hong Kong Hospital Authority, Hong Kong, China
Ann Intern Med 141:662-73. 2004..CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of the complete data on the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong has revealed key epidemiologic features of the epidemic as it evolved...