Christophe Fraser

Summary

Affiliation: Imperial College
Country: UK

Publications

  1. pmc Modelling bacterial speciation
    William P Hanage
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Hospital Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 361:2039-44. 2006
  2. pmc Transmission selects for HIV-1 strains of intermediate virulence: a modelling approach
    George Shirreff
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Comput Biol 7:e1002185. 2011
  3. pmc Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence data
    Eric de Silva
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 9:1797-808. 2012
  4. pmc A strong case for viral genetic factors in HIV virulence
    Viktor Müller
    Institute of Biology, Eotvos Lorand University, Pázmány P s 1 C, 1117 Budapest, Hungary
    Viruses 3:204-16. 2011
  5. pmc HPTN 071 (PopART): a cluster-randomized trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment: mathematical model
    Anne Cori
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS ONE 9:e84511. 2014
  6. pmc HIV treatment as prevention: debate and commentary--will early infection compromise treatment-as-prevention strategies?
    Myron S Cohen
    Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
    PLoS Med 9:e1001232. 2012
  7. pmc Within-host and between-host evolutionary rates across the HIV-1 genome
    Samuel Alizon
    Laboratoire MIVEGEC UMR CNRS 5290, IRD 224, UM1, UM2, 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
    Retrovirology 10:49. 2013
  8. pmc Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemic
    Christophe Fraser
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Modelling and Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Am J Epidemiol 174:505-14. 2011
  9. pmc HIV recombination: what is the impact on antiretroviral therapy?
    Christophe Fraser
    Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 2:489-503. 2005
  10. ncbi request reprint The bacterial species challenge: making sense of genetic and ecological diversity
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 323:741-6. 2009

Detail Information

Publications70

  1. pmc Modelling bacterial speciation
    William P Hanage
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Hospital Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 361:2039-44. 2006
    ....
  2. pmc Transmission selects for HIV-1 strains of intermediate virulence: a modelling approach
    George Shirreff
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Comput Biol 7:e1002185. 2011
    ..The model provides a useful framework under which to examine the future evolution of HIV-1 virulence...
  3. pmc Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence data
    Eric de Silva
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 9:1797-808. 2012
    ..We illustrate this with an application to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic...
  4. pmc A strong case for viral genetic factors in HIV virulence
    Viktor Müller
    Institute of Biology, Eotvos Lorand University, Pázmány P s 1 C, 1117 Budapest, Hungary
    Viruses 3:204-16. 2011
    ..Now a series of four studies [1-4] published within a year has filled this important gap and has demonstrated a robust effect of the viral genotype on HIV virulence...
  5. pmc HPTN 071 (PopART): a cluster-randomized trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment: mathematical model
    Anne Cori
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS ONE 9:e84511. 2014
    ..Here, we present the mathematical modeling used to inform the design and monitoring of a new trial aiming to test whether widespread provision of ART is feasible and can substantially reduce population-level HIV incidence...
  6. pmc HIV treatment as prevention: debate and commentary--will early infection compromise treatment-as-prevention strategies?
    Myron S Cohen
    Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
    PLoS Med 9:e1001232. 2012
    ..This article presents two opposing viewpoints by Powers, Miller, and Cohen, and Williams and Dye, followed by a commentary by Fraser...
  7. pmc Within-host and between-host evolutionary rates across the HIV-1 genome
    Samuel Alizon
    Laboratoire MIVEGEC UMR CNRS 5290, IRD 224, UM1, UM2, 911 Avenue Agropolis, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
    Retrovirology 10:49. 2013
    ..However, this conclusion relies on analyses of a short portion of the virus envelope gene. Here, we study in detail these evolutionary rates across the HIV genome...
  8. pmc Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemic
    Christophe Fraser
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Modelling and Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Am J Epidemiol 174:505-14. 2011
    ..Together, these analyses demonstrate that the 1918 influenza virus, though highly virulent, was only moderately transmissible and thus in a modern context would be considered controllable...
  9. pmc HIV recombination: what is the impact on antiretroviral therapy?
    Christophe Fraser
    Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 2:489-503. 2005
    ....
  10. ncbi request reprint The bacterial species challenge: making sense of genetic and ecological diversity
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 323:741-6. 2009
    ..The resulting data may help to discriminate among the many theories of prokaryotic species that have been produced to date...
  11. pmc Neutral microepidemic evolution of bacterial pathogens
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary s Hospital Campus, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 102:1968-73. 2005
    ..These findings challenge the assumption that strains of bacterial pathogens differ markedly in relative fitness...
  12. pmc Recombination and the nature of bacterial speciation
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 315:476-80. 2007
    ..Hence, to make sense of bacterial diversity, we need data not only from genetic surveys but also from experimental determination of selection pressures and recombination rates and from theoretical models...
  13. pmc Variation in HIV-1 set-point viral load: epidemiological analysis and an evolutionary hypothesis
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:17441-6. 2007
    ..We discuss how this evolutionary hypothesis can be tested, review the evidence available to date, and highlight directions for future research...
  14. pmc Influenza pandemic vaccines: spread them thin?
    Christophe Fraser
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Med 4:e228. 2007
  15. pmc Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemic
    Christophe Fraser
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS ONE 2:e758. 2007
    ....
  16. pmc Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, St Mary s, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101:6146-51. 2004
    ..Direct estimation of the proportion of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections is achievable by contact tracing and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent...
  17. ncbi request reprint Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 437:209-14. 2005
    ..Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed...
  18. ncbi request reprint Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
    Christl A Donnelly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK
    Lancet 361:1761-6. 2003
    ..We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong...
  19. pmc Estimating the public health impact of the effect of herpes simplex virus suppressive therapy on plasma HIV-1 viral load
    Rebecca F Baggaley
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    AIDS 23:1005-13. 2009
    ..Our aim was to estimate the population-level impact of suppressive therapy on female-to-male HIV-1 sexual transmission...
  20. ncbi request reprint Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 442:448-52. 2006
    ..Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics...
  21. pmc Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic
    Roy M Anderson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 359:1091-105. 2004
    ..These lessons learnt from the SARS experience are presented in an epidemiological and public health context...
  22. ncbi request reprint Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome
    Christl A Donnelly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
    Lancet Infect Dis 4:672-83. 2004
    ....
  23. pmc HIV-1 transmitting couples have similar viral load set-points in Rakai, Uganda
    T Deirdre Hollingsworth
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Pathog 6:e1000876. 2010
    ..The most parsimonious explanation is that this is due to shared characteristics of the transmitted virus, a finding which sheds light on both the role of viral factors in HIV-1 pathogenesis and on the evolution of the virus...
  24. ncbi request reprint Public health. Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 304:968-9. 2004
  25. ncbi request reprint Viral replication under combination antiretroviral therapy: a comparison of four different regimens
    Azra C Ghani
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK
    J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 30:167-76. 2002
    ..04; 95% CI, 1.0-1.07). Measurement of viral load after approximately 7 days provided the most accurate measure of the degree of viral suppression induced by a given drug regimen...
  26. pmc Assessing the reliability of eBURST using simulated populations with known ancestry
    Katherine M E Turner
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, St Mary s Hospital Campus, Norfolk Place, London, UK
    BMC Microbiol 7:30. 2007
    ..The reliability of eBURST was evaluated using populations simulated with different levels of recombination in which the ancestry of all strains was known...
  27. pmc Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries
    Lulla Opatowski
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Pathog 7:e1002225. 2011
    ..Our analysis indicates that between-country-differences in transmission were at least partly due to differences in population demography...
  28. pmc Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: quantification of the extent of the epidemic, surveillance biases, and transmissibility
    Simon Cauchemez
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
    Lancet Infect Dis 14:50-6. 2014
    ..We analysed epidemiological and genetic data to assess the extent of human infection, the performance of case detection, and the transmission potential of MERS-CoV with and without control measures...
  29. pmc Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States
    Simon Cauchemez
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London
    N Engl J Med 361:2619-27. 2009
    ..Risk factors for transmission remain largely uncharacterized. We characterize the risk factors and describe the transmission of the virus within households...
  30. ncbi request reprint Comparative potency of three antiretroviral therapy regimes in primary HIV infection
    Sarah Fidler
    Department of GUM and Communicable Diseases, Wright Fleming Institute, Jefferiss Trust Laboratories, London, UK
    AIDS 20:247-52. 2006
    ..To best achieve the most rapid reduction in primary viraemia we compared three different ART regimens in PHI...
  31. doi request reprint Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission
    Nicholas C Grassly
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nat Rev Microbiol 6:477-87. 2008
  32. pmc Is HIV short-sighted? Insights from a multistrain nested model
    Katrina A Lythgoe
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Evolution 67:2769-82. 2013
    ..However, if reproduction rates increase more modestly, as data suggest, our model predicts that HIV virulence will be only marginally higher than the level that maximizes the transmission potential of the virus. ..
  33. pmc Historical zoonoses and other changes in host tropism of Staphylococcus aureus, identified by phylogenetic analysis of a population dataset
    Marcus A Shepheard
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS ONE 8:e62369. 2013
    ..We also highlight novel rabbit-associated genotypes arising from a human ancestor...
  34. ncbi request reprint The effect on treatment comparisons of different measurement frequencies in human immunodeficiency virus observational databases
    James T Griffin
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
    Am J Epidemiol 163:676-83. 2006
    ....
  35. pmc Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings
    Christophe Fraser
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 324:1557-61. 2009
    ..Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than that of seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics...
  36. ncbi request reprint Antigen-driven T-cell turnover
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, Paddington, London W21PG, UK
    J Theor Biol 219:177-92. 2002
    ..We show that our model can resolve the paradox of high levels of viral replication occurring while only a small fraction of cells are infected...
  37. pmc Evidence that pneumococcal serotype replacement in Massachusetts following conjugate vaccination is now complete
    William P Hanage
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
    Epidemics 2:80-4. 2010
    ..For other serotypes, the future course of replacement disease remains to be determined...
  38. pmc Sequences, sequence clusters and bacterial species
    William P Hanage
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Hospital Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 361:1917-27. 2006
    ..The advantages and problems in using sequence clusters as the basis of species assignments are discussed...
  39. ncbi request reprint The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread
    Lorenzo Pellis
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Math Biosci 216:63-70. 2008
    ..In this paper, we reanalyse Ludwig's result, highlighting some of the conditions under which it does not hold and providing a general framework to examine the differences between the continuous-time and the discrete-generation process...
  40. pmc HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa
    Jeffrey W Eaton
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Med 9:e1001245. 2012
    ..This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART...
  41. doi request reprint Virulence and pathogenesis of HIV-1 infection: an evolutionary perspective
    Christophe Fraser
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UK
    Science 343:1243727. 2014
    ..We propose conceptual models that reconcile adaptive evolution at both levels of selection. Evolutionary analysis provides new insight into HIV pathogenesis. ..
  42. pmc Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza
    James Truscott
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 9:304-12. 2012
    ..We discuss our findings in the context of other work fitting to seasonal influenza data...
  43. pmc Quantifying the transmissibility of human influenza and its seasonal variation in temperate regions
    James Truscott
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London Imperial College London MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London and MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College
    PLoS Curr 1:RRN1125. 2009
    ....
  44. ncbi request reprint The impact of homologous recombination on the generation of diversity in bacteria
    William P Hanage
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary s Hospital Campus, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    J Theor Biol 239:210-9. 2006
    ..We also demonstrate that by fitting the neutral model to experimental data, more informative and precise estimates of the relative roles of recombination and mutation may be obtained...
  45. ncbi request reprint HIV-1 transmission, by stage of infection
    T Deirdre Hollingsworth
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    J Infect Dis 198:687-93. 2008
    ....
  46. doi request reprint Hyper-recombination, diversity, and antibiotic resistance in pneumococcus
    William Paul Hanage
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 324:1454-7. 2009
    ..This could have consequences for the reemergence of drug resistance after pneumococcal vaccination and also for our understanding of diversification and speciation in recombinogenic bacteria...
  47. ncbi request reprint Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions
    Steven Riley
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
    Science 300:1961-6. 2003
    ..We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission...
  48. pmc Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces
    Lorenzo Pellis
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Hospital, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
    J Math Biol 63:691-734. 2011
    ..g. reproduction numbers, critical vaccination coverage, epidemic final size) to new results on the epidemic dynamics...
  49. pmc Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology
    Nicholas C Grassly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 273:2541-50. 2006
    ..The synthesis of seasonal infectious disease epidemiology attempted by this paper highlights the need for further empirical and theoretical work...
  50. pmc HPTN 071 (PopART): rationale and design of a cluster-randomised trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment - a study protocol for a cluster randomised trial
    Richard Hayes
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK
    Trials 15:57. 2014
    ..We describe the rationale and design of a trial to evaluate this hypothesis...
  51. pmc Fuzzy species among recombinogenic bacteria
    William P Hanage
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
    BMC Biol 3:6. 2005
    ....
  52. pmc Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions
    Rebecca F Baggaley
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK
    Curr Opin HIV AIDS 5:269-76. 2010
    ..To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact...
  53. ncbi request reprint Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models
    Jeffrey W Eaton
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
    Lancet Glob Health 2:e23-34. 2014
    ..We aimed to assess the potential health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of various eligibility criteria for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage...
  54. pmc OutbreakTools: a new platform for disease outbreak analysis using the R software
    Thibaut Jombart
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom Electronic address
    Epidemics 7:28-34. 2014
    ..Together with a number of tools for infectious disease epidemiology recently made available in R, OutbreakTools contributes to the emergence of a new, free and open-source platform for the analysis of disease outbreaks. ..
  55. pmc Bayesian reconstruction of disease outbreaks by combining epidemiologic and genomic data
    Thibaut Jombart
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Comput Biol 10:e1003457. 2014
    ..Because of its generality, we believe this method will become a tool of choice for the analysis of densely sampled disease outbreaks, and will form a rigorous framework for subsequent methodological developments. ..
  56. ncbi request reprint New strategies for the elimination of polio from India
    Nicholas C Grassly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, UK
    Science 314:1150-3. 2006
    ..We analyze strategies to counteract this and show that switching to monovalent vaccine may finally interrupt virus transmission...
  57. pmc Studies needed to address public health challenges of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: insights from modeling
    Maria D Van Kerkhove
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Med 7:e1000275. 2010
    ..In light of the 2009 influenza pandemic and potential future pandemics, Maria Van Kerkhove and colleagues anticipate six public health challenges and the data needed to support sound public health decision making...
  58. pmc New insights into the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 at the within-host and epidemiological levels
    Katrina A Lythgoe
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, London W2 1PG, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 279:3367-75. 2012
    ..Moreover, early infection viruses should be the major target for vaccine design, because these are the viral strains primarily involved in transmission...
  59. pmc Phylodynamic inference and model assessment with approximate bayesian computation: influenza as a case study
    Oliver Ratmann
    Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America
    PLoS Comput Biol 8:e1002835. 2012
    ..ABC, one of several data synthesis approaches, can easily interface a broad class of phylodynamic models with various types of data but requires careful calibration of the summaries and tolerance parameters...
  60. pmc Heterogeneity in the frequency and characteristics of homologous recombination in pneumococcal evolution
    Rafal Mostowy
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Genet 10:e1004300. 2014
    ..We critically evaluate biological and epidemiological processes that could give rise to the micro-recombination and macro-recombination processes. ..
  61. ncbi request reprint Increasing sexual risk behaviour among Dutch men who have sex with men: mathematical models versus prospective cohort data
    Ard van Sighem
    aStichting HIV Monitoring, Amsterdam bDepartment of Research, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Cluster of Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam, the Netherlands cDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK dDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Centre for Infection and Immunity Amsterdam CINIMA, Academic Medical Centre, The Netherlands
    AIDS 26:1840-3. 2012
    ..The agreement between the two approaches was very good, confirming that in terms of incidence, increasing risk behaviour between MSM is offsetting benefits offered by enhanced testing and treatment...
  62. ncbi request reprint Host immunity and synchronized epidemics of syphilis across the United States
    Nicholas C Grassly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 433:417-21. 2005
    ..We further demonstrate increased synchrony of syphilis oscillations across cities over time, providing empirical evidence for an increasingly connected sexual network in the United States...
  63. ncbi request reprint Modeling the long-term antibody response of a human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like particle (VLP) type 16 prophylactic vaccine
    Christophe Fraser
    Imperial College London, London, UK
    Vaccine 25:4324-33. 2007
    ....
  64. pmc SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contacts
    Gabriel M Leung
    University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    Emerg Infect Dis 10:1653-6. 2004
    ..19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus...
  65. ncbi request reprint A resurgent HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of potent antiretroviral therapy
    Daniela Bezemer
    HIV Monitoring Foundation, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    AIDS 22:1071-7. 2008
    ..The aim of this study was to quantify the impact that highly active antiretroviral therapy had on the epidemic...
  66. ncbi request reprint CD4 cell counts of 800 cells/mm3 or greater after 7 years of highly active antiretroviral therapy are feasible in most patients starting with 350 cells/mm3 or greater
    Luuk Gras
    HIV Monitoring Foundation, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 45:183-92. 2007
    ..CD4 cell count changes in therapy-naive patients were investigated during 7 years of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in an observational cohort...
  67. ncbi request reprint The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients
    Gabriel M Leung
    University of Hong Kong, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and Hong Kong Hospital Authority, Hong Kong, China
    Ann Intern Med 141:662-73. 2004
    ..As yet, no one has written a comprehensive epidemiologic account of a severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak from an affected country...
  68. pmc Reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions
    Joseph T Wu
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    PLoS Med 3:e361. 2006
    ..If such a strain emerges, and is not controlled at source [2,3], a pandemic is likely to result. Health policy in most countries will then be focused on reducing morbidity and mortality...
  69. ncbi request reprint Let it be sexual--selection, aggregation and distortion used to construct a case against sexual transmission
    Geoff P Garnett
    Int J STD AIDS 14:782-4; author reply 784-6. 2003
  70. pmc Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States
    M Elizabeth Halloran
    Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105:4639-44. 2008
    ....