Neil M Ferguson

Summary

Affiliation: Imperial College
Country: UK

Publications

  1. ncbi Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 437:209-14. 2005
  2. ncbi The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions
    N M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College School of Medicine, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 292:1155-60. 2001
  3. ncbi Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 422:428-33. 2003
  4. ncbi Poverty, death, and a future influenza pandemic
    Neil Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    Lancet 368:2187-8. 2006
  5. ncbi Adherence to antiretroviral therapy and its impact on clinical outcome in HIV-infected patients
    N M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 2:349-63. 2005
  6. ncbi Estimating the human health risk from possible BSE infection of the British sheep flock
    N M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, St Mary s Campus, London, UK
    Nature 415:420-4. 2002
  7. ncbi Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain
    N M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, St Mary s Campus, London, UK
    Nature 413:542-8. 2001
  8. ncbi Short-term projections for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease onsets
    Azra C Ghani
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
    Stat Methods Med Res 12:191-201. 2003
  9. ncbi Within-farm transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease as revealed by the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain
    Irina Chis Ster
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
    Epidemics 4:158-69. 2012
  10. ncbi Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic
    Roy M Anderson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 359:1091-105. 2004

Detail Information

Publications68

  1. ncbi Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 437:209-14. 2005
    ..Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed...
  2. ncbi The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions
    N M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College School of Medicine, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 292:1155-60. 2001
    ..Culling is predicted to be more effective than vaccination...
  3. ncbi Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 422:428-33. 2003
    ....
  4. ncbi Poverty, death, and a future influenza pandemic
    Neil Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    Lancet 368:2187-8. 2006
  5. ncbi Adherence to antiretroviral therapy and its impact on clinical outcome in HIV-infected patients
    N M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 2:349-63. 2005
    ....
  6. ncbi Estimating the human health risk from possible BSE infection of the British sheep flock
    N M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, St Mary s Campus, London, UK
    Nature 415:420-4. 2002
    ....
  7. ncbi Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain
    N M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, St Mary s Campus, London, UK
    Nature 413:542-8. 2001
    ....
  8. ncbi Short-term projections for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease onsets
    Azra C Ghani
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
    Stat Methods Med Res 12:191-201. 2003
    ..These results demonstrate the continued uncertainty in the future scale of this disease...
  9. ncbi Within-farm transmission dynamics of foot and mouth disease as revealed by the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain
    Irina Chis Ster
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom
    Epidemics 4:158-69. 2012
    ..We highlighted evidence which reinforces the role of within-farm dynamics in contributing to the long tail of the 2001 epidemic...
  10. ncbi Epidemiology, transmission dynamics and control of SARS: the 2002-2003 epidemic
    Roy M Anderson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 359:1091-105. 2004
    ..These lessons learnt from the SARS experience are presented in an epidemiological and public health context...
  11. ncbi Public health. Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epidemic
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 304:968-9. 2004
  12. ncbi Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome
    Christl A Donnelly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
    Lancet Infect Dis 4:672-83. 2004
    ....
  13. ncbi Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 442:448-52. 2006
    ..Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics...
  14. ncbi Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
    Christl A Donnelly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK
    Lancet 361:1761-6. 2003
    ..We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong...
  15. ncbi Estimating the location and spatial extent of a covert anthrax release
    Judith Legrand
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Comput Biol 5:e1000356. 2009
    ..In addition, estimates of release features could be used to parameterize more detailed models allowing the simulation of control strategies and intervention logistics...
  16. ncbi Factors determining the pattern of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in the UK
    Azra C Ghani
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 270:689-98. 2003
    ....
  17. ncbi Modelling the impact of antiretroviral use in resource-poor settings
    Rebecca F Baggaley
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Med 3:e124. 2006
    ..Mathematical models can explore the potential impacts of various treatment strategies, including timing of treatment initiation and provision of laboratory monitoring facilities, to complement evidence from pilot programmes...
  18. ncbi Implications of BSE infection screening data for the scale of the British BSE epidemic and current European infection levels
    Christl A Donnelly
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 269:2179-90. 2002
    ..Infection incidence for cattle born after mid-1996 was highest in Greece, Italy and Belgium, with Spain and The Netherlands having intermediate levels, and estimates for Great Britain, Germany and France being comparably low...
  19. ncbi A many-body field theory approach to stochastic models in population biology
    Peter J Dodd
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS ONE 4:e6855. 2009
    ..Here we argue that they make many calculations easier and are a possible starting point for new approximations...
  20. ncbi Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions
    Steven Riley
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2AZ, UK
    Science 300:1961-6. 2003
    ..We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission...
  21. ncbi Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK
    Azra C Ghani
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    BMC Infect Dis 3:4. 2003
    ..However, recent vCJD case data have indicated a decrease in the annual incidence of deaths over the past two years...
  22. ncbi Space and contact networks: capturing the locality of disease transmission
    Paul E Parham
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Praed Street, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 3:483-93. 2006
    ....
  23. ncbi Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States
    Simon Cauchemez
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London
    N Engl J Med 361:2619-27. 2009
    ..Risk factors for transmission remain largely uncharacterized. We characterize the risk factors and describe the transmission of the virus within households...
  24. ncbi Epidemiological inference for partially observed epidemics: the example of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain
    Irina Chis Ster
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, UK
    Epidemics 1:21-34. 2009
    ..However, for the parameter estimated obtained, preliminary simulation results indicate that had contiguous culling not been applied in 2001, the epidemic might have been substantially larger...
  25. ncbi Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings
    Christophe Fraser
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Faculty of Medicine, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Science 324:1557-61. 2009
    ..Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than that of seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics...
  26. ncbi Epidemic growth rate and household reproduction number in communities of households, schools and workplaces
    Lorenzo Pellis
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Hospital, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
    J Math Biol 63:691-734. 2011
    ..g. reproduction numbers, critical vaccination coverage, epidemic final size) to new results on the epidemic dynamics...
  27. ncbi Transmission characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic: comparison of 8 Southern hemisphere countries
    Lulla Opatowski
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Pathog 7:e1002225. 2011
    ..Our analysis indicates that between-country-differences in transmission were at least partly due to differences in population demography...
  28. ncbi Antigen-driven T-cell turnover
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, Paddington, London W21PG, UK
    J Theor Biol 219:177-92. 2002
    ..We show that our model can resolve the paradox of high levels of viral replication occurring while only a small fraction of cells are infected...
  29. ncbi Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 270:1579-84. 2003
    ..04 additional vCJD deaths over the next 60 years. However, there is substantial (more than 40-fold) uncertainty surrounding this estimate, the sources of which are discussed...
  30. ncbi Methods to infer transmission risk factors in complex outbreak data
    Simon Cauchemez
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
    J R Soc Interface 9:456-69. 2012
    ..We also discuss approaches to integrate parametric model fitting and tree reconstruction methods in coherent statistical analyses. The methods are tested on both real and simulated datasets of large outbreaks in structured populations...
  31. ncbi Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain
    Irina Chis Ster
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS ONE 2:e502. 2007
    ..Predictive risk maps of the transmission potential in different geographic areas of GB are presented for the fitted models...
  32. ncbi Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models
    Steven Riley
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, W2 1PG London, UK
    J Theor Biol 225:419-30. 2003
    ..This indicates that the observed aggregation of parasite load may be dynamically generated by random variation in the development of an effective immune response against parasite larvae...
  33. ncbi Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable
    Christophe Fraser
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, St Mary s, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 101:6146-51. 2004
    ..Direct estimation of the proportion of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections is achievable by contact tracing and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent...
  34. ncbi Antigenic diversity, transmission mechanisms, and the evolution of pathogens
    Alexander Lange
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Comput Biol 5:e1000536. 2009
    ....
  35. ncbi Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: application to measles transmission in London
    Simon Cauchemez
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 5:885-97. 2008
    ..This indicates that simple models assuming homogenous mixing (even with age structure) of the type which are standard in mathematical epidemiology miss key features of epidemics in large populations...
  36. ncbi Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics
    T Deirdre Hollingsworth
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease and Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    Emerg Infect Dis 13:1288-94. 2007
    ....
  37. ncbi Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data
    Simon Cauchemez
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 452:750-4. 2008
    ..The impact of school closure would be reduced if it proved difficult to maintain low contact rates among children for a prolonged period...
  38. ncbi The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread
    Lorenzo Pellis
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Math Biosci 216:63-70. 2008
    ..In this paper, we reanalyse Ludwig's result, highlighting some of the conditions under which it does not hold and providing a general framework to examine the differences between the continuous-time and the discrete-generation process...
  39. ncbi Viral replication under combination antiretroviral therapy: a comparison of four different regimens
    Azra C Ghani
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK
    J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 30:167-76. 2002
    ..04; 95% CI, 1.0-1.07). Measurement of viral load after approximately 7 days provided the most accurate measure of the degree of viral suppression induced by a given drug regimen...
  40. ncbi Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic
    Simon Cauchemez
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, London, UK
    Lancet Infect Dis 9:473-81. 2009
    ..Implications for the mitigation of the swine-origin influenza A H1N1 pandemic are also discussed...
  41. ncbi Control of a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the GB poultry flock
    James Truscott
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, St Mary s Campus, London W2 1PG, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 274:2287-95. 2007
    ..The most effective of these contingent interventions are large radius (10 km) localized culling and national vaccination. However, the modest impact of these approaches must be balanced against their substantial inconvenience and cost...
  42. ncbi The transmission dynamics of BSE and vCJD
    Azra C Ghani
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine St Mary s, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    C R Biol 325:37-47. 2002
    ..We also consider the epidemiological determinants of the future course of the vCJD epidemic, including the age and genetic characteristics of the confirmed cases, and present predictions of future case numbers...
  43. ncbi Scale-free networks and sexually transmitted diseases: a description of observed patterns of sexual contacts in Britain and Zimbabwe
    Anne Schneeberger
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, UK
    Sex Transm Dis 31:380-7. 2004
    ..CONCLUSIONS: A scale-free network approach provides a reasonable description of distributions of reported numbers of sexual partners...
  44. ncbi Serial intervals and the temporal distribution of secondary infections within households of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1): implications for influenza control recommendations
    Christl A Donnelly
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    Clin Infect Dis 52:S123-30. 2011
    ..Only 5% of transmission events were estimated to take place >3 days after the onset of clinical symptoms among those ill with pH1N1 virus. These results will inform future recommendations on duration of isolation of individuals with ILI...
  45. ncbi Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza
    Simon Cauchemez
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 108:2825-30. 2011
    ....
  46. ncbi Influenza transmission in households during the 1918 pandemic
    Christophe Fraser
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Modelling and Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom
    Am J Epidemiol 174:505-14. 2011
    ..Together, these analyses demonstrate that the 1918 influenza virus, though highly virulent, was only moderately transmissible and thus in a modern context would be considered controllable...
  47. ncbi Using routine surveillance data to estimate the epidemic potential of emerging zoonoses: application to the emergence of US swine origin influenza A H3N2v virus
    Simon Cauchemez
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Med 10:e1001399. 2013
    ..Additionally, existing methods do not correct for important selection and under-ascertainment biases. Here, we present simple estimation methods that overcome many of these limitations...
  48. ncbi Inferring pandemic growth rates from sequence data
    Eric de Silva
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 9:1797-808. 2012
    ..We illustrate this with an application to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic...
  49. ncbi Comment on "Seroevidence for H5N1 influenza infections in humans: meta-analysis"
    Maria D Van Kerkhove
    Medical Research Council Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK
    Science 336:1506; author reply 1506. 2012
    ..Although the true risk of death from H5N1 infection will likely be lower than the 60% of reported laboratory-confirmed cases, there is little evidence of millions of missed infections...
  50. ncbi Planning for smallpox outbreaks
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK
    Nature 425:681-5. 2003
    ..We review the use of models in smallpox planning within the broader epidemiological context set by recent outbreaks of both novel and re-emerging pathogens...
  51. ncbi The impact of cross-immunity, mutation and stochastic extinction on pathogen diversity
    Laith J Abu-Raddad
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Marys Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    Proc Biol Sci 271:2431-8. 2004
    ..While the model framework developed is simplified, we show that it can capture essential aspects of the complex evolutionary dynamics of pathogens such as influenza...
  52. ncbi Estimating air temperature and its influence on malaria transmission across Africa
    Tini Garske
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS ONE 8:e56487. 2013
    ..We present high resolution maps of the malaria transmission parameters driven by air temperature and their seasonal variation. The fitted air temperature datasets are made publicly available alongside this publication...
  53. ncbi Modelling the impact of vector control interventions on Anopheles gambiae population dynamics
    Michael T White
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
    Parasit Vectors 4:153. 2011
    ....
  54. ncbi A population-dynamic model for evaluating the potential spread of drug-resistant influenza virus infections during community-based use of antivirals
    Neil M Ferguson
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary s Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    J Antimicrob Chemother 51:977-90. 2003
    ..It is also shown that until high levels of therapy are attained, early treatment of symptomatic cases is more efficient (per unit of drug) at preventing infections than prophylactic therapy...
  55. ncbi Influenza infection rates, measurement errors and the interpretation of paired serology
    Simon Cauchemez
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
    PLoS Pathog 8:e1003061. 2012
    ..Determining which biological phenomenon contributes most to 2-fold rises in antibody titers is essential to assess bias with the traditional case definition and offer improved estimates of influenza ARs...
  56. ncbi Evaluating the adequacy of gravity models as a description of human mobility for epidemic modelling
    James Truscott
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK
    PLoS Comput Biol 8:e1002699. 2012
    ..An assortative model based on node population size captures this heterogeneity, considerably improving the epidemiological match between synthetic and data networks...
  57. ncbi Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States
    Rosalind M Eggo
    MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary s Campus, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 8:233-43. 2011
    ..We find that parameters estimated from the England and Wales dataset can be applied to the US data with no likelihood penalty...
  58. ncbi Improving the realism of deterministic multi-strain models: implications for modelling influenza A
    Pavlo Minayev
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College Faculty of Medicine, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK
    J R Soc Interface 6:509-18. 2009
    ....
  59. ncbi Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain
    Steven Riley
    Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:12637-42. 2006
    ....
  60. ncbi Real-time estimates in early detection of SARS
    Simon Cauchemez
    Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale, Paris, France
    Emerg Infect Dis 12:110-3. 2006
    ..Using simulation studies of SARS-like outbreaks, we have shown that the method may be used for early monitoring of the effect of control measures...
  61. ncbi Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States
    M Elizabeth Halloran
    Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Polytechnical Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 105:4639-44. 2008
    ....
  62. ncbi Time lines of infection and disease in human influenza: a review of volunteer challenge studies
    Fabrice Carrat
    Universite Pierre et Marie Curie PARIS6, UMR S 707, Paris, France
    Am J Epidemiol 167:775-85. 2008
    ....
  63. ncbi The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities
    Martin C J Bootsma
    Mathematical Institute, Faculty of Sciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 6, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:7588-93. 2007
    ..Our analysis also suggests that individuals reactively reduced their contact rates in response to high levels of mortality during the pandemic...
  64. ncbi Will travel restrictions control the international spread of pandemic influenza?
    T Deirdre Hollingsworth
    Nat Med 12:497-9. 2006
  65. ncbi Unveiling the burden of pertussis
    Michiel van Boven
    Animal Sciences Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 65, 8200 AB Lelystad, The Netherlands
    Trends Microbiol 12:116-9. 2004
  66. ncbi SARS-CoV antibody prevalence in all Hong Kong patient contacts
    Gabriel M Leung
    University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    Emerg Infect Dis 10:1653-6. 2004
    ..19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus...
  67. ncbi The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients
    Gabriel M Leung
    University of Hong Kong, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and Hong Kong Hospital Authority, Hong Kong, China
    Ann Intern Med 141:662-73. 2004
    ..CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of the complete data on the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong has revealed key epidemiologic features of the epidemic as it evolved...
  68. ncbi Predicting evolutionary change in the influenza A virus
    Neil M Ferguson
    Nat Med 8:562-3. 2002