Mirjam Kretzschmar

Summary

Affiliation: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
Country: The Netherlands

Publications

  1. ncbi Reconstruction of measles dynamics in a vaccinated population
    J Wallinga
    National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Vaccine 21:2643-50. 2003
  2. doi New challenges for mathematical and statistical modeling of HIV and hepatitis C virus in injecting drug users
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    AIDS 22:1527-37. 2008
  3. doi Predicting the population impact of chlamydia screening programmes: comparative mathematical modelling study
    M Kretzschmar
    Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Sex Transm Infect 85:359-66. 2009
  4. pmc Effects of population based screening for Chlamydia infections in the Netherlands limited by declining participation rates
    Boris V Schmid
    Center for Infectious Disease Control, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    PLoS ONE 8:e58674. 2013
  5. pmc The impact of demographic change on the estimated future burden of infectious diseases: examples from hepatitis B and seasonal influenza in the Netherlands
    Scott A McDonald
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    BMC Public Health 12:1046. 2012
  6. pmc Effects of an ageing population and the replacement of immune birth cohorts on the burden of hepatitis A in the Netherlands
    Scott A McDonald
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    BMC Infect Dis 13:120. 2013
  7. doi Effects of screening and partner notification on Chlamydia positivity in the United States: a modeling study
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Sex Transm Dis 39:325-31. 2012
  8. pmc New methodology for estimating the burden of infectious diseases in Europe
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    PLoS Med 9:e1001205. 2012
  9. pmc Timeliness of contact tracing among flight passengers for influenza A/H1N1 2009
    Corien M Swaan
    Preparedness and Response Unit, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, A, van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721 MA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    BMC Infect Dis 11:355. 2011
  10. pmc Analysis of timeliness of infectious disease reporting in the Netherlands
    Elisabeth Reijn
    Municipal Health Service MHS Zaanstreek Waterland, Zaandam, The Netherlands
    BMC Public Health 11:409. 2011

Collaborators

Detail Information

Publications57

  1. ncbi Reconstruction of measles dynamics in a vaccinated population
    J Wallinga
    National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Vaccine 21:2643-50. 2003
    ..A potential application of the proposed method lies in detecting the loss of herd immunity and assessing the risk of major outbreaks in vaccinated populations...
  2. doi New challenges for mathematical and statistical modeling of HIV and hepatitis C virus in injecting drug users
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    AIDS 22:1527-37. 2008
    ..Modeling has much to offer for solving urgent policy questions, but current levels of funding in modeling research are insufficient and need to be scaled up to make better use of these possibilities...
  3. doi Predicting the population impact of chlamydia screening programmes: comparative mathematical modelling study
    M Kretzschmar
    Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Sex Transm Infect 85:359-66. 2009
    ..The objective of this study was to conduct a direct comparison of the effect of organised chlamydia screening in different models...
  4. pmc Effects of population based screening for Chlamydia infections in the Netherlands limited by declining participation rates
    Boris V Schmid
    Center for Infectious Disease Control, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    PLoS ONE 8:e58674. 2013
    ..Data were collected on participation rates and positivity rates per round. A modeling study was conducted to project screening effects for various screening strategies into the future...
  5. pmc The impact of demographic change on the estimated future burden of infectious diseases: examples from hepatitis B and seasonal influenza in the Netherlands
    Scott A McDonald
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    BMC Public Health 12:1046. 2012
    ..Our aim was to qualitatively explore the impact of population ageing on the estimated future burden of seasonal influenza and hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in the Netherlands, in the period 2000-2030...
  6. pmc Effects of an ageing population and the replacement of immune birth cohorts on the burden of hepatitis A in the Netherlands
    Scott A McDonald
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    BMC Infect Dis 13:120. 2013
    ..Our goal was to qualitatively investigate the interaction of this cohort effect and demographic change (population ageing) on the estimated disease burden of HAV infection in the Netherlands...
  7. doi Effects of screening and partner notification on Chlamydia positivity in the United States: a modeling study
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Sex Transm Dis 39:325-31. 2012
    ..Model impact of increasing screening and partner notification (PN) on chlamydia positivity...
  8. pmc New methodology for estimating the burden of infectious diseases in Europe
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    PLoS Med 9:e1001205. 2012
    b>Mirjam Kretzschmar and colleagues describe the BCoDE project, which uses a pathogen-based incidence approach to better estimate the infectious disease burden in Europe.
  9. pmc Timeliness of contact tracing among flight passengers for influenza A/H1N1 2009
    Corien M Swaan
    Preparedness and Response Unit, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, A, van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721 MA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    BMC Infect Dis 11:355. 2011
    ....
  10. pmc Analysis of timeliness of infectious disease reporting in the Netherlands
    Elisabeth Reijn
    Municipal Health Service MHS Zaanstreek Waterland, Zaandam, The Netherlands
    BMC Public Health 11:409. 2011
    ....
  11. pmc Usefulness of primary care electronic networks to assess the incidence of chlamydia, diagnosed by general practitioners
    Anita W M Suijkerbuijk
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, RIVM National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    BMC Fam Pract 12:72. 2011
    ..The aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of electronic medical records for monitoring the incidence of chlamydia cases diagnosed in primary care in the Netherlands...
  12. pmc Ring vaccination and smallpox control
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Emerg Infect Dis 10:832-41. 2004
    ..When faced with the decision of whether to rely on ring vaccination, the public health community should be aware that an epidemic might take time to subside even for an eventually successful intervention strategy...
  13. ncbi The effect of pair formation and variable infectivity on the spread of an infection without recovery
    M Kretzschmar
    Institut fur Medizinische Biometrie, Universitat Tubingen, Germany
    Math Biosci 148:83-113. 1998
    ..Therefore, reduction of the high infectivity in the short first stage of infection only affects R0 markedly if average partnership duration is short...
  14. doi Model based analysis of hepatitis B vaccination strategies in the Netherlands
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, RIVM, The Netherlands
    Vaccine 27:1254-60. 2009
    ..The impact on the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection, however, remains limited...
  15. pmc Regional differences in HIV prevalence among drug users in China: potential for future spread of HIV?
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany
    BMC Infect Dis 8:108. 2008
    ..To assess whether these goals were fulfilled among drug users in China we provide an analysis of risk factors for HIV infection and of regional differences in HIV prevalence...
  16. ncbi Comparative model-based analysis of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis infections
    M Kretzschmar
    Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Am J Epidemiol 153:90-101. 2001
    ..Partner referral contributes substantially to prevalence reduction...
  17. ncbi Sexual network structure and sexually transmitted disease prevention: a modeling perspective
    M Kretzschmar
    National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Sex Transm Dis 27:627-35. 2000
    ..Mathematical modeling techniques are being used increasingly to plan public health policy for the prevention of sexually transmitted diseases...
  18. pmc Incidence and reproduction numbers of pertussis: estimates from serological and social contact data in five European countries
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    PLoS Med 7:e1000291. 2010
    ....
  19. doi Hepatitis B vaccination of men who have sex with men in the Netherlands: should we vaccinate more men, younger men or high-risk men?
    Maria Xiridou
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Sex Transm Infect 89:666-71. 2013
    ..We investigate whether this can be attributed to the selective vaccination programme. We examine how vaccination strategies could be improved and the impact of universal infant vaccination introduced in 2011...
  20. ncbi Association between acculturation and childhood vaccination coverage in migrant populations: a population based study from a rural region in Bavaria, Germany
    Rafael T Mikolajczyk
    Department of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld, Germany
    Int J Public Health 53:180-7. 2008
    ..The aim of our analysis was to investigate the association between acculturation and the vaccination coverage among pre-school children...
  21. doi Unspecified gastroenteritis illness and deaths in the elderly associated with norovirus epidemics
    Liselotte van Asten
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control Netherlands, National Institute for Public Health and Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Epidemiology 22:336-43. 2011
    ..However, the impact of such increased norovirus activity on morbidity and mortality is not clear because norovirus infection is rarely specifically registered...
  22. pmc Determinants of sexual network structure and their impact on cumulative network measures
    Boris V Schmid
    Unit Epidemiology and Surveillance, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    PLoS Comput Biol 8:e1002470. 2012
    ....
  23. pmc Infectious disease transmission as a forensic problem: who infected whom?
    Peter Teunis
    Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    J R Soc Interface 10:20120955. 2013
    ..This illustrates that the proposed method can be used to accurately reconstruct transmission networks, enhancing our understanding of outbreak dynamics and possibly leading to new insights into how to prevent outbreaks...
  24. ncbi Using data on social contacts to estimate age-specific transmission parameters for respiratory-spread infectious agents
    Jacco Wallinga
    National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Am J Epidemiol 164:936-44. 2006
    ..These findings have important implications for controlling future outbreaks of novel respiratory-spread infectious agents...
  25. pmc Estimation of measles vaccine efficacy and critical vaccination coverage in a highly vaccinated population
    Michiel van Boven
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    J R Soc Interface 7:1537-44. 2010
    ..971, 95% credible interval: 0.961-0.978). We discuss the implications for measles elimination from highly vaccinated populations...
  26. pmc Effectiveness and timing of vaccination during school measles outbreak
    Axel Antonio Bonačić Marinović
    Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Emerg Infect Dis 18:1405-13. 2012
    ..These are realistic time frames for implementing school outbreak response vaccination campaigns. High baseline vaccination ratios extended the time needed for effective response...
  27. ncbi Attitudes and beliefs of parents about childhood vaccinations in post-soviet countries: the example of Kyrgyzstan
    Manas K Akmatov
    Department of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany
    Pediatr Infect Dis J 28:637-40. 2009
    ..Although the fractions were lower than known from developed countries, they should be taken into consideration while implementing planning vaccination programs...
  28. pmc Enhanced hygiene measures and norovirus transmission during an outbreak
    Janneke C M Heijne
    National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Emerg Infect Dis 15:24-30. 2009
    ..This reduction was unexpectedly large but still below the reduction needed to contain a norovirus outbreak. Even more stringent control measures are required to break the chain of transmission of norovirus...
  29. ncbi The incidence of Bordetella pertussis infections estimated in the population from a combination of serological surveys
    Hester E de Melker
    Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    J Infect 53:106-13. 2006
    ..There is a considerable amount of infection in adults. For designing more effective vaccination schedules it is important to quantify the age-dependent relation between the number of notified cases and the number of infections...
  30. ncbi Is concurrency driving HIV transmission in sub-Saharan African sexual networks? The significance of sexual partnership typology
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    AIDS Behav 16:1746-52. 2012
    ..We also suggest that a more rigorous definition is needed for when a factor is considered a driving force for HIV epidemic spread. We illustrate this with a modeling example...
  31. doi High impact of migration on the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B in the Netherlands
    Tanja Marschall
    Department of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany
    Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 20:1214-25. 2008
    ..The aim of this study was to calculate an adjusted HBsAg prevalence estimate for the total Dutch population including these risk groups...
  32. doi Timeliness of vaccination and its effects on fraction of vaccinated population
    Manas K Akmatov
    Department of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld, Germany
    Vaccine 26:3805-11. 2008
    ..In presence of vaccination delay, up-to-date vaccination is a biased estimator of the fraction of vaccinated population. Age-appropriate vaccination should be taken into account when assessing vaccination coverage...
  33. ncbi Contact tracing in stochastic and deterministic epidemic models
    J Muller
    Biomathematik, Universitat Tubingen, Auf der Morgenstelle 10, D 72076, Tubingen, Germany
    Math Biosci 164:39-64. 2000
    ..Furthermore, it is possible to obtain a deterministic model that approximates the stochastic process, and in this way, to determine the prevalence of disease in the quasi-stationary state and to investigate the dynamics of the epidemic...
  34. doi Unlocking pathogen genotyping information for public health by mathematical modeling
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584 CX Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Trends Microbiol 18:406-12. 2010
    ..In this paper, we review recent developments and propose methods to integrate pathogen ecology and molecular evolution based on their common dependence on the underlying host contact patterns...
  35. pmc Contact profiles in eight European countries and implications for modelling the spread of airborne infectious diseases
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Centre for Infectious Disease Control, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    PLoS ONE 4:e5931. 2009
    ..Besides contact rates and mixing between age groups, the way individuals distribute their contacts across different locations may play an important role in determining how infections spread through a population...
  36. pmc Frequency of adverse events after vaccination with different vaccinia strains
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands
    PLoS Med 3:e272. 2006
    ..We conducted a systematic review and statistical analysis of historical data concerning vaccination against smallpox with different strains of vaccinia virus...
  37. doi In search of hidden Q-fever outbreaks: linking syndromic hospital clusters to infected goat farms
    C C van den Wijngaard
    National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Epidemiol Infect 139:19-26. 2011
    ..Real-time syndromic surveillance would have detected four of the other clusters in 2007, one in 2006 and two in 2005, which might have resulted in detection of Q-fever outbreaks up to 2 years earlier...
  38. ncbi Perspective: human contact patterns and the spread of airborne infectious diseases
    J Wallinga
    Dept of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands
    Trends Microbiol 7:372-7. 1999
    ....
  39. ncbi Cost-effectiveness of screening programs for Chlamydia trachomatis: a population-based dynamic approach
    R Welte
    Department of Health Services Research, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Sex Transm Dis 27:518-29. 2000
    ..Models commonly used for the economic assessment of chlamydial screening programs do not consider population effects...
  40. pmc Vaccination against hepatitis B in low endemic countries
    M Kretzschmar
    Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Epidemiol Infect 128:229-44. 2002
    ....
  41. ncbi Determinants of childhood vaccination coverage in Kazakhstan in a period of societal change: implications for vaccination policies
    Manas K Akmatov
    Department of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld, Germany
    Vaccine 25:1756-63. 2007
    ..We found a mixed pattern of risk factors, consistent with the status of Kazakhstan as a transitional economy. Especially prominent was the relatively high education of the women and good access to the medical care system...
  42. pmc A measles epidemic threshold in a highly vaccinated population
    Jacco Wallinga
    Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    PLoS Med 2:e316. 2005
    ..These two explanations for the irregular sequence of measles outbreaks can be tested against observations of both the fraction of susceptible individuals and infection attack rates...
  43. ncbi Mathematical epidemiology of Chlamydia trachomatis infections
    M Kretzschmar
    National Institute of Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Neth J Med 60:35-41; discussion 42-3. 2002
    ..The model was used to investigate the effects of various screening strategies on the prevalence of asymptomatic Chlamydia infections in women...
  44. ncbi The importance of partnership factors and individual factors associated with absent or inconsistent condom use in heterosexuals: a cross-sectional study
    Amy Matser
    Cluster of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Service of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht UMCU, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Sex Transm Infect 90:325-31. 2014
    ..We examined the associations between inconsistent or no condom use and individual and partnership characteristics. We also examined the relative importance of individual versus partnership factors...
  45. pmc Towards an integrated approach in surveillance of vector-borne diseases in Europe
    Marieta Braks
    Laboratory for Zoonoses and Environmental Microbiology, National Institute for Public Health and Environment RIVM, Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Parasit Vectors 4:192. 2011
    ..Depending on the context, whether a VBD is endemic or not, surveillance activities are required to assess disease burden or threat, respectively. Following a decision for action, surveillance activities continue to assess trends...
  46. doi Time trends and regional differences in the prevalence of HIV infection among women attending antenatal clinics in 2 provinces in Cameroon
    Seraphin Kuate
    Department of Public Health Medicine, School of Public Health, University of Bielefeld, Bielefeld, Germany
    J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 52:258-64. 2009
    ..In the present study, we studied time trends and regional differences in the prevalence of HIV infection among women attending antenatal care clinics (ANC) in 7 sites located in 2 provinces in Cameroon...
  47. pmc A model based evaluation of the 1996-7 pertussis epidemic in The Netherlands
    M van Boven
    Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    Epidemiol Infect 127:73-85. 2001
    ..We discuss the implications of this conclusion for B. pertussis circulation, and for the design of vaccination programmes in the face of a polymorphic B. pertussis population that may adapt itself to vaccination...
  48. pmc Development of a resource modelling tool to support decision makers in pandemic influenza preparedness: The AsiaFluCap Simulator
    Mart Lambertus Stein
    National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, 3720, BA, The Netherlands
    BMC Public Health 12:870. 2012
    ..As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics...
  49. pmc Comparing pandemic to seasonal influenza mortality: moderate impact overall but high mortality in young children
    Cees C van den Wijngaard
    National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Center for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
    PLoS ONE 7:e31197. 2012
    ..For a valid comparison, our study used the same statistical methodology and data types to estimate pandemic and seasonal influenza mortality...
  50. doi Mixture model to assess the extent of cross-transmission of multidrug-resistant pathogens in hospitals
    Rafael T Mikolajczyk
    University of Bielefeld, Germany
    Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 30:730-6. 2009
    ..Creation of a mixture model based on Poisson processes for assessment of the extent of cross-transmission of multidrug-resistant pathogens in the hospital...
  51. ncbi Primary HIV infection as source of HIV transmission within steady and casual partnerships among homosexual men
    Maria Xiridou
    Infectious Diseases Department, Amsterdam Municipal Health Service, The Netherlands
    AIDS 18:1311-20. 2004
    ....
  52. ncbi Prediction of costs, effectiveness, and disease control of a population-based program using home sampling for diagnosis of urogenital Chlamydia trachomatis Infections
    Berit Andersen
    Department of Infectious Diseases, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
    Sex Transm Dis 33:407-15. 2006
    ..To estimate the incremental effects and costs of a home sampling screening approach for Chlamydia trachomatis over the current in-office screening practice in Denmark...
  53. doi Universal hepatitis B vaccination
    Mirjam Kretzschmar
    Lancet Infect Dis 8:85-7; author reply 90. 2008
  54. ncbi The contribution of steady and casual partnerships to the incidence of HIV infection among homosexual men in Amsterdam
    Maria Xiridou
    Cluster of Infectious Diseases, Municipal Health Service, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    AIDS 17:1029-38. 2003
    ....
  55. pmc Pathogen adaptation under imperfect vaccination: implications for pertussis
    Michiel van Boven
    Animal Sciences Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, PO Box 65, 8200 AB Lelystad, The Netherlands
    Proc Biol Sci 272:1617-24. 2005
    ..We discuss the implications of these results for the design and use of vaccines that provide temporary immunity...
  56. ncbi Costs and effects of chlamydial screening: dynamic versus static modeling
    Robert Welte
    Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, GSF National Research Center for Environment and Health, Neuherberg, Germany
    Sex Transm Dis 32:474-83. 2005
    ..The objective of this study was to assess the impact of modeling type on the economic evaluation of screening programs for asymptomatic Chlamydia trachomatis infections...
  57. ncbi Competition of pathogen strains leading to infection with variable infectivity and the effect of treatment
    Maria Xiridou
    Department of Infectious Diseases, Municipal Health Service, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    Math Biosci 197:153-72. 2005
    ..In this case, early introduction of treatment can prevent a major outbreak...