Research Topics
 M G RobertsSummaryAffiliation: Massey University Country: New Zealand Publications
 Collaborators

Detail Information
Publications
 Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic modelsMick Roberts
Infectious Disease Research Centre, Institute of Natural and Mathematical Sciences, and New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, 1311 Auckland, New Zealand Electronic address
Epidemics 10:4953. 2015..The final two challenges concern the uses and limitations of deterministic models as approximations to stochastic systems. ..  Epidemic models with uncertainty in the reproduction numberM G Roberts
Infectious Disease Research Centre, Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, Massey University, Private Bag 102904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand
J Math Biol 66:146374. 2013..In solving both problems we demonstrate how the dynamical system is derived automatically via recurrence relationships, then solved numerically...  Characterizing the nextgeneration matrix and basic reproduction number in ecological epidemiologyM G Roberts
Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, and Infectious Disease Research Centre, Massey University, Private Bag 102904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand
J Math Biol 66:104564. 2013..It is shown that regions for the parameter values exist where the two host species are only able to coexist when the pathogen is present to mediate the ecological interaction...  Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modellingGabriel Sertsou
Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
Theor Biol Med Model 3:38. 2006..To estimate the key transmission parameters associated with an outbreak of pandemic influenza in an institutional setting (New Zealand 1918)...  Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: pandemic influenza H1N12009 in New ZealandMichael George Roberts
Centre for Mathematical Biology, Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
PLoS ONE 6:e17835. 2011....  Modelconsistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infectionM G Roberts
Centre for Mathematical Biology, Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand
J Math Biol 55:80316. 2007..We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of R0, and we quantify the discrepancies that arise...  The pluses and minuses of R0M G Roberts
Centre for Mathematical Biology, Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand
J R Soc Interface 4:94961. 2007..These three statements are not universally true. In this paper, some exceptions to them are discussed, based on the extensions of the SIR model...  A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical regionM G Roberts
Centre for Mathematical Biology, Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand
J R Soc Interface 4:32530. 2007....  Modelling strategies for minimizing the impact of an imported exotic infectionM G Roberts
Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand
Proc Biol Sci 271:24115. 2004..The model's use in the design of strategies to minimize the risk of SARS in a previously unexposed community is demonstrated...  A new method for estimating the effort required to control an infectious diseaseM G Roberts
Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand
Proc Biol Sci 270:135964. 2003..These insights cannot be obtained by using R0 alone...  An integral equation model for the control of a smallpox outbreakG K Aldis
School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of NSW at ADFA, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia
Math Biosci 195:122. 2005..This could be used in conjunction with the vaccination of healthcare workers and contacts. Our results suggest that prior mass vaccination would be an inefficient method of containing an outbreak...  The typereproduction number T in models for infectious disease controlJ A P Heesterbeek
Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Math Biosci 206:310. 2007..In this paper we further develop the new threshold quantity as an indicator of control effort required in a system where multiple types of individuals are recognised when control targets a specific type...  The metapopulation dynamics of an infectious disease: tuberculosis in possumsG R Fulford
AgResearch, Wallaceville Animal Research Centre, Upper Hutt, New Zealand
Theor Popul Biol 61:1529. 2002..Three scenarios are considered for the control of bovine tuberculosis in possums where the spatial aspect is shown to be crucial for the design of disease management operations...