Some limitations of aggregate exposure metricsLouis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates, Inc, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 27:439-45. 2007
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Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic eventsLouis Anthony Cox
University of Colorado, 503 Franklin St, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 32:1919-34. 2012
..Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events...
Confronting deep uncertainties in risk analysisLouis Anthony Cox
Associates and University of Colorado, 503 Franklin St, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 32:1607-29. 2012
..They provide genuine breakthroughs for improving predictions and decisions when the correct model is highly uncertain. We demonstrate their potential by summarizing a variety of practical risk management applications...
Reassessing the human health benefits from cleaner airLouis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 32:816-29. 2012
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Reassessing benzene risks using internal doses and Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysisL A Cox
Cox Associates, Denver, Colorado 80218, USA
Environ Health Perspect 104:1413-29. 1996
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Could removing arsenic from tobacco smoke significantly reduce smoker risks of lung cancer?Louis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 29:3-17. 2009
..At present, this fraction is unknown (and could be as low as zero), but the possibility that it could be high (close to 1) cannot be ruled out without further data...
Why risk is not variance: an expository noteLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 28:925-8. 2008
..Unlike some previous analyses of limitations of variance as a risk metric, this expository note uses only simple mathematics and does not require the additional framework of von Neumann Morgenstern utility theory...
What's wrong with risk matrices?Louis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, 503 Franklin St, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 28:497-512. 2008
..These limitations suggest that risk matrices should be used with caution, and only with careful explanations of embedded judgments...
Why reduced-form regression models of health effects versus exposures should not replace QRA: livestock production and infant mortality as an exampleLouis Anthony Tony Cox
University of Colorado, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 29:1664-71. 2009
..Sound risk management requires the extra work needed to identify and model valid causal relations...
A causal model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) riskLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 31:38-62. 2011
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Hormesis without cell killingLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, 503 Franklin St, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 29:393-400. 2009
..In addition, the examples presented emphasize the role of time in hormesis: exposures that monotonically increase risks at younger ages may nonetheless produce a U-shaped or J-shaped dose-response relation for lifetime risk of cancer...
Estimating preventable fractions of disease caused by a specified biological mechanism: PAHs in smoking lung cancers as an exampleLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates, 503 Franklin St, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 26:881-92. 2006
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An exposure-response threshold for lung diseases and lung cancer caused by crystalline silicaLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 31:1543-60. 2011
..Applying this new model to epidemiological data, we conclude that current permissible exposure levels, on the order of 0.1 mg/m³, are probably below the threshold for triggering lung diseases in humans...
Clarifying types of uncertainty: when are models accurate, and uncertainties small?Louis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, 503 Franklin St, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 31:1530-3; discussion 1538-42. 2011
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Quantifying potential health impacts of cadmium in cigarettes on smoker risk of lung cancer: a portfolio-of-mechanisms approachLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, 503 Franklin St, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 26:1581-99. 2006
..Conservative estimates and assumptions made in this calculation suggest that the true impact could be greater for some smokers. This conclusion appears to be robust to many scientific uncertainties about Cd and smoking effects...
Does concern-driven risk management provide a viable alternative to QRA?Louis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 27:27-43. 2007
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Overcoming confirmation bias in causal attribution: a case study of antibiotic resistance risksLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates, Denver, CO, USA
Risk Anal 28:1155-72. 2008
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What's wrong with hazard-ranking systems? An expository noteLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, USA
Risk Anal 29:940-8. 2009
..Applying portfolio optimization methods instead of risk prioritization ranking, rating, or scoring methods can achieve greater risk-reduction value for resources spent...
Some limitations of frequency as a component of risk: an expository noteLouis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 29:171-5. 2009
..quot; More flexible descriptions of risky processes, such as point process models can avoid these limitations...
A mathematical model of protease-antiprotease homeostasis failure in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)Louis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, Denver, CO, USA
Risk Anal 29:576-86. 2009
..These and other predictions of the model are consistent with limited available human data...
Some limitations of qualitative risk rating systemsLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates, Inc, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 25:651-62. 2005
..These limitations suggest that it is important to continue to develop and apply practical quantitative risk assessment methods, since qualitative ones are often unreliable...
Some limitations of a proposed linear model for antimicrobial risk managementLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 25:1327-32. 2005
..quot;..
Causal versus spurious spatial exposure-response associations in health risk analysisLouis Anthony Tony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, Denver, CO, USA and
Crit Rev Toxicol 43:26-38. 2013
..Hence, extreme caution and careful application of spatial statistical methods are warranted before interpreting proximity-based exposure-response relations as evidence of a possible or probable causal relation...
Symmetry, identifiability, and prediction uncertainties in multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models of carcinogenesisLouis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 27:1441-53. 2007
..From epidemiological data alone, only a set of equally likely alternative predictions can be made for the effects on risk of such interventions...
Bayesian Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of human health risks from animal antimicrobial use in a dynamic model of emerging resistanceLouis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 24:1153-64. 2004
..S. population. Such quantitative estimates complement more qualitative assessments that discuss the possibility of future "resistance epidemics" (or endemics) without quantifying their probabilities...
Quantifying potential human health impacts of animal antibiotic use: enrofloxacin and macrolides in chickensLouis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, CO 80218 3623, USA
Risk Anal 26:135-46. 2006
..This potentially important aspect of human health risk assessment for animal antibiotics has not previously been quantified...
Optimal tracking and testing of U.S. and Canadian herds for BSE: a value-of-information (VOI) approachLouis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates, Denver, CO 80218, USA
Risk Anal 25:827-40. 2005
..If aggressive tracking and testing can win back lost exports, then the VOI of a tracking program may increase to over half a billion dollars per year...
Improving risk-based decision making for terrorism applicationsLouis Anthony Cox
Cox Associates and University of Colorado, USA
Risk Anal 29:336-41; discussion 342-3. 2009
..These limitations of present scoring methods present exciting technical challenges and opportunities for risk analysts to develop improved methods for protecting facilities and infrastructure against terrorist threats...