Steven Riley

....

..The purpose of this report is to describe the village-to-village variation in the prevalence of two levels of infection intensity across 50 villages of Samar Province, the Philippines...

..It also demonstrates the need to develop a simple model of household demographics, so that these large-scale models can be extended to the investigation of long-time scale human pathogens, such as tuberculosis and HIV...

..e., less than the recommended dose for maximum protection) may provide substantial extra community-level benefits because they would permit wider vaccine coverage for a given total size of antigen stockpile...

..Here, we characterize the transmission dynamics of S. japonicum using data from an extensive field study and a mathematical transmission model...

..Our findings suggest that the additional benefits and resource requirements of household-based interventions in reducing average levels of transmission should also be considered, even when expected levels of compliance are only moderate...

..CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of the complete data on the 2003 SARS epidemic in Hong Kong has revealed key epidemiologic features of the epidemic as it evolved...

..Our findings indicate that increased antigenic drift is associated with reassortment events and offer insights into the emergence of influenza viruses with epidemic potential in swine and humans...

..Secondary schools closed for summer vacation shortly afterwards. By fitting a model of reporting and transmission to case data, we estimated that transmission was reduced approximately 25% when secondary schools closed...

..We evaluated three alternative statistical approaches where alert thresholds are based on recent data in both temperate and subtropical regions...

..After the WHO issued the global alert for 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1), many national health agencies began to screen travelers on entry in airports, ports and border crossings to try to delay local transmission...

..Such complex global migration dynamics may confound control efforts and contribute to the emergence and spread of antigenic variants and drug-resistant viruses...

..We developed a mathematical model to test the hypothesis that a small stockpile of a secondary antiviral drug could be used to mitigate the adverse consequences of the emergence of resistant strains...

....

..We estimate the serial interval of laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission in households...

..Serial cross-sectional data on antibody levels to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus from a population can be used to estimate the infection attack rates and immunity against future infection in the community...

..Results indicated that infection with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 broadens cross-reactive immunity to other recent subtype H1 swine viruses...

..In general, mitigation measures such as isolation and quarantine are more effective at the population level if the proportion of household transmission is low...

....

..Therefore, despite substantial potential benefits of non-pro-rata policies, our results suggest that the current HHS policy of pro-rata allocation by state is a good compromise in terms of simplicity, robustness, equity and efficiency...

..Furthermore, we show that a sudden reduction in snail population size would affect high prevalence and low prevalence communities in different ways...

..19%) were positive for SARS coronavirus immunoglobulin G antibody. SARS rarely manifests as a subclinical infection, and at present, wild animal species are the only important natural reservoirs of the virus...

..We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission...

..Policy effectiveness depends critically on how quickly clinical cases are diagnosed and the speed with which antiviral drugs can be distributed...

..The authors discuss the aetiology, diagnosis and prevention of influenza and pneumococcal disease, identifying who should be vaccinated and those who are at risk. Useful information on how to plan an immunisation campaign is also outlined...

..We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong...

..This indicates that the observed aggregation of parasite load may be dynamically generated by random variation in the development of an effective immune response against parasite larvae...

..Direct estimation of the proportion of asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections is achievable by contact tracing and should be a priority during an outbreak of a novel infectious agent...

..These lessons learnt from the SARS experience are presented in an epidemiological and public health context...

....

..This model could easily be adapted to other parasitic infections or outcomes where an analysis by category would be recommended...

..Heterosexual transmission has long been considered the predominant route of transmission of HIV-1 in sub-Saharan Africa. However, some have argued that unsafe medical injections account for the majority of transmission in this region...