Hiroshi Nishiura

Summary

Affiliation: The University of Hong Kong
Country: China

Publications

  1. pmc How is vaccine effectiveness scaled by the transmission dynamics of interacting pathogen strains with cross-protective immunity?
    Ryosuke Omori
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, People s Republic of China
    PLoS ONE 7:e50751. 2012
  2. pmc Age-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan
    Kenji Mizumoto
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Level 6, Core F, Cyberport 3, 100 Cyberport Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
    Comput Math Methods Med 2013:637064. 2013
  3. pmc The impact of model building on the transmission dynamics under vaccination: observable (symptom-based) versus unobservable (contagiousness-dependent) approaches
    Keisuke Ejima
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
    PLoS ONE 8:e62062. 2013
  4. pmc The time required to estimate the case fatality ratio of influenza using only the tip of an iceberg: joint estimation of the virulence and the transmission potential
    Keisuke Ejima
    Department of Mathematical Informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, 7 3 1 Hongo, Bunkyo ku, Tokyo 113 8656, Japan
    Comput Math Methods Med 2012:978901. 2012
  5. pmc The relationship between tuberculosis and influenza death during the influenza (H1N1) pandemic from 1918-19
    Welling Oei
    Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, 358GA Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Comput Math Methods Med 2012:124861. 2012
  6. pmc Effects of Vaccination against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among Japanese Children
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan H Nishiura University of Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands H Nishiura and Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan H Oshitani
    Emerg Infect Dis 17:746-7. 2011
  7. pmc Real-time investigation of measles epidemics with estimate of vaccine efficacy
    Keisuke Ejima
    Department of Mathematical Informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, 7 3 1 Hongo, Bunkyo ku, Tokyo 113 8656, Japan
    Int J Biol Sci 8:620-9. 2012
  8. pmc Sample size considerations for one-to-one animal transmission studies of the influenza A viruses
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
    PLoS ONE 8:e55358. 2013
  9. pmc Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Level 6, Core F, Cyberport 3, 100 Cyberport Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama 332 0012, Japan
    J Theor Biol 294:48-55. 2012
  10. pmc Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak
    Ryosuke Omori
    Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Kyushu University, 6 10 1 Hakozaki, Higashi ku, Fukuoka 812 8581, Japan
    Theor Biol Med Model 8:2. 2011

Detail Information

Publications51

  1. pmc How is vaccine effectiveness scaled by the transmission dynamics of interacting pathogen strains with cross-protective immunity?
    Ryosuke Omori
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, People s Republic of China
    PLoS ONE 7:e50751. 2012
    ..e. vaccine and non-vaccine strains...
  2. pmc Age-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan
    Kenji Mizumoto
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Level 6, Core F, Cyberport 3, 100 Cyberport Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
    Comput Math Methods Med 2013:637064. 2013
    ..A seroepidemiological study should be planned in advance of a pandemic...
  3. pmc The impact of model building on the transmission dynamics under vaccination: observable (symptom-based) versus unobservable (contagiousness-dependent) approaches
    Keisuke Ejima
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
    PLoS ONE 8:e62062. 2013
    ..The present study aims to assess the impact of model building strategy on the epidemic threshold under vaccination...
  4. pmc The time required to estimate the case fatality ratio of influenza using only the tip of an iceberg: joint estimation of the virulence and the transmission potential
    Keisuke Ejima
    Department of Mathematical Informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, 7 3 1 Hongo, Bunkyo ku, Tokyo 113 8656, Japan
    Comput Math Methods Med 2012:978901. 2012
    ..If policymaking and public health response have to be made based on the CFR estimate derived from the proposed method and readily available data, it should be noted that the successful estimation may take longer than a few months...
  5. pmc The relationship between tuberculosis and influenza death during the influenza (H1N1) pandemic from 1918-19
    Welling Oei
    Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, 358GA Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Comput Math Methods Med 2012:124861. 2012
    ..These findings suggest that it is worthwhile to further explore the role of TB in characterizing the age-specific risk of influenza death...
  6. pmc Effects of Vaccination against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among Japanese Children
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan H Nishiura University of Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands H Nishiura and Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan H Oshitani
    Emerg Infect Dis 17:746-7. 2011
    ..Our study aimed to assess vaccine-induced reductions in susceptibility and infectiousness among children by using the household secondary attack rate...
  7. pmc Real-time investigation of measles epidemics with estimate of vaccine efficacy
    Keisuke Ejima
    Department of Mathematical Informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, 7 3 1 Hongo, Bunkyo ku, Tokyo 113 8656, Japan
    Int J Biol Sci 8:620-9. 2012
    ..Because the estimation method can rest on readily available epidemiological data, the proposed model has a potential to be integrated with routine surveillance...
  8. pmc Sample size considerations for one-to-one animal transmission studies of the influenza A viruses
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
    PLoS ONE 8:e55358. 2013
    ..The analyses are illustrated on transmission studies of influenza A viruses in the ferret model...
  9. pmc Estimating the transmission potential of supercritical processes based on the final size distribution of minor outbreaks
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Level 6, Core F, Cyberport 3, 100 Cyberport Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama 332 0012, Japan
    J Theor Biol 294:48-55. 2012
    ....
  10. pmc Theoretical basis to measure the impact of short-lasting control of an infectious disease on the epidemic peak
    Ryosuke Omori
    Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Kyushu University, 6 10 1 Hakozaki, Higashi ku, Fukuoka 812 8581, Japan
    Theor Biol Med Model 8:2. 2011
    ..As a first step to address this issue, we present a theoretical basis on which to assess the impact of an early intervention on the epidemic peak, employing a simple epidemic model...
  11. pmc Did modeling overestimate the transmission potential of pandemic (H1N1-2009)? Sample size estimation for post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan
    PLoS ONE 6:e17908. 2011
    ..Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies...
  12. pmc Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009)
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4 1 8 Honcho, Kawaguchi, Saitama, Japan
    Biomed Eng Online 10:15. 2011
    ..Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting...
  13. pmc Fever screening during the influenza (H1N1-2009) pandemic at Narita International Airport, Japan
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4 1 8 Honcho, Kawaguchi, Saitama 332 0012, Japan
    BMC Infect Dis 11:111. 2011
    ..We aimed to retrospectively assess the feasibility of detecting influenza cases based on fever screening as a sole measure...
  14. pmc Infection fatality risk of the pandemic A(H1N1)2009 virus in Hong Kong
    Jessica Y Wong
    School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    Am J Epidemiol 177:834-40. 2013
    ..Substantial variation in the age-specific infection fatality risk complicates comparison of the severity of different influenza strains...
  15. pmc Heterogeneity in viral shedding among individuals with medically attended influenza A virus infection
    Lincoln L H Lau
    Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, 21 Sassoon Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China
    J Infect Dis 207:1281-5. 2013
    ..Further investigation is required to correlate the substantial variations in viral shedding with heterogeneity in actual transmissibility...
  16. pmc Increased risk of noninfluenza respiratory virus infections associated with receipt of inactivated influenza vaccine
    Benjamin J Cowling
    School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China
    Clin Infect Dis 54:1778-83. 2012
    ..40; 95% confidence interval: 1.31-14.8). Being protected against influenza, TIV recipients may lack temporary non-specific immunity that protected against other respiratory viruses...
  17. pmc Vaccination and clinical severity: is the effectiveness of contact tracing and case isolation hampered by past vaccination?
    Kenji Mizumoto
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Level 6, Core F, Cyberport 3, 100 Cyberport Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
    Int J Environ Res Public Health 10:816-29. 2013
    ....
  18. ncbi The virulence of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009: an epidemiological perspective on the case-fatality ratio
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan and Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, Utrecht, 3584 CL, The Netherlands
    Expert Rev Respir Med 4:329-38. 2010
    ....
  19. pmc Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1): a systematic review and meta-analysis
    Lincoln L H Lau
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    Epidemiology 23:531-42. 2012
    ..During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, household transmission studies were implemented to better understand the characteristics of the transmission of the novel virus in a confined setting...
  20. pmc Excess mortality associated with influenza A and B virus in Hong Kong, 1998-2009
    Peng Wu
    School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    J Infect Dis 206:1862-71. 2012
    ..Although deaths associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infections are rare, the excess mortality burden of influenza estimated from statistical models may more reliably quantify the impact of influenza in a population...
  21. pmc Aerosol transmission is an important mode of influenza A virus spread
    Benjamin J Cowling
    School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
    Nat Commun 4:1935. 2013
    ..This implies that measures to reduce transmission by contact or large droplets may not be sufficient to control influenza A virus transmission in households...
  22. pmc The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics
    Elson H Y Lam
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, People s Republic of China
    Theor Biol Med Model 8:44. 2011
    ..Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined...
  23. pmc The epidemiological and public health research response to 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1): experiences from Hong Kong
    Peng Wu
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    Influenza Other Respir Viruses 7:367-82. 2013
    ..The experiences of the research response in Hong Kong could provide a template for the research response to future emerging and reemerging disease epidemics...
  24. pmc Transmissibility of seasonal and pandemic influenza in a cohort of households in Hong Kong in 2009
    Brendan Klick
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    Epidemiology 22:793-6. 2011
    ..The household secondary attack proportion (SAP) is commonly used to measure the transmissibility of an infectious disease...
  25. pmc Epidemiological determinants of successful vaccine development
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Level 6, Core F, Cyberport 3, 100 Cyberport Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China
    Int J Med Sci 10:382-4. 2013
    ..Employing a logistic regression model, we demonstrate that a high affinity with blood and immune cells and pathogen interactions (e.g. interference) would be the risk factors of failure for vaccine development...
  26. pmc An analysis of national target groups for monovalent 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine and trivalent seasonal influenza vaccines in 2009-10 and 2010-11
    Sophia Ng
    School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
    BMC Infect Dis 11:230. 2011
    ..To understand differential patterns of national target groups for influenza vaccination before, during and after the 2009 influenza pandemic, we reviewed and analyzed the country-specific policies in the corresponding time periods...
  27. pmc Effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis coupled with contact tracing in reducing the transmission of the influenza A (H1N1-2009): a systematic review
    Kenji Mizumoto
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, 100 Cyberport Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China
    Theor Biol Med Model 10:4. 2013
    ....
  28. pmc Modeling the obesity epidemic: social contagion and its implications for control
    Keisuke Ejima
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
    Theor Biol Med Model 10:17. 2013
    ....
  29. pmc Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1) 2009
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho 4 1 8, Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332 0012, Japan
    Theor Biol Med Model 7:1. 2010
    ..The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009...
  30. pmc Entry screening to delay local transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1)
    Benjamin J Cowling
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    BMC Infect Dis 10:82. 2010
    ..After the WHO issued the global alert for 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1), many national health agencies began to screen travelers on entry in airports, ports and border crossings to try to delay local transmission...
  31. doi Travel and age of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan
    J Travel Med 17:269-70. 2010
    ..01) reflecting age-specific travel patterns. Border controls should account for the high frequency of infection among adults...
  32. pmc Cost-effective length and timing of school closure during an influenza pandemic depend on the severity
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7 3 1 Hongo, Bunkyo ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan
    Theor Biol Med Model 11:5. 2014
    ..Parameterizing an age-structured epidemic model using published estimates of the pandemic H1N1-2009 and accounting for the cost effectiveness, we examined if the timing and length of school closure could be optimized...
  33. pmc Early epidemiological assessment of the virulence of emerging infectious diseases: a case study of an influenza pandemic
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    PLoS ONE 4:e6852. 2009
    ..The present study develops a simple method to obtain an unbiased estimate of confirmed CFR (cCFR), using only the confirmed cases as the denominator, at an early stage of epidemic, even when there have been only a few deaths...
  34. pmc Correcting the actual reproduction number: a simple method to estimate R(0) from early epidemic growth data
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, 332 0012, Japan
    Int J Environ Res Public Health 7:291-302. 2010
    ..60 to 3.74, consistent with those based on the Euler-Lotka equation. The method also permits calculating the expected value of R(0) using a spreadsheet...
  35. doi How to find natural reservoir hosts from endemic prevalence in a multi-host population: a case study of influenza in waterfowl
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Epidemics 1:118-28. 2009
    ..We further discuss epidemiological issues which are concerned with the interpretation of influenza prevalence data, identifying key features to be fully clarified in the future...
  36. doi Time variations in the generation time of an infectious disease: implications for sampling to appropriately quantify transmission potential
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency JST, 4 1 8 Honcho Kawaguchi, Saitama 332 0012, Japan
    Math Biosci Eng 7:851-69. 2010
    ..Mathematical properties of the generation time distribution in a heterogeneously mixing population need to be clarified further...
  37. doi Contact behaviour of children and parental employment behaviour during school closures against the pandemic influenza A (H1N1-2009) in Japan
    Kenji Mizumoto
    School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
    J Int Med Res 41:716-24. 2013
    ..To identify epidemiological determinants of the contact behaviour of children and their impact on parental employment, during school closures that took place over the course of the 2009 pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan...
  38. pmc How to interpret the transmissibility of novel influenza A(H7N9): an analysis of initial epidemiological data of human cases from China
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Level 6, Core F, Cyberport 3, Pokfulam, Hong Kong
    Theor Biol Med Model 10:30. 2013
    ..The presence of human-to-human transmission has not been demonstrated, but the absence of demonstration does not guarantee that there is no such transmission...
  39. pmc The ideal reporting interval for an epidemic to objectively interpret the epidemiological time course
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    J R Soc Interface 7:297-307. 2010
    ....
  40. doi The correlation between infectivity and incubation period of measles, estimated from households with two cases
    Don Klinkenberg
    Theoretical Epidemiology, Department of Farm Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Yalelaan 7, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    J Theor Biol 284:52-60. 2011
    ..The correlation between times from infection to secondary transmission and to symptom onset could critically affect the predicted effectiveness of isolation and quarantine...
  41. pmc Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584CL, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    Theor Biol Med Model 5:20. 2008
    ..This article reviews basic methods and findings in mathematical and statistical studies of smallpox which estimate key transmission parameters from historical data...
  42. doi Probabilistic differential diagnosis of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) using the time from immigration to illness onset among imported cases
    Keisuke Ejima
    Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Medical Building No 3, 7 3 1 Hongo, Bunkyo ku, Tokyo 113 0033, Japan Department of Mathematical Informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, 7 3 1 Hongo, Bunkyo ku, Tokyo 113 8656, Japan
    J Theor Biol 346:47-53. 2014
    ....
  43. ncbi [A robust statistic AC₁ for assessing inter-observer agreement in reliability studies]
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency
    Nihon Hoshasen Gijutsu Gakkai Zasshi 66:1485-91. 2010
    ..AC₁ adjusts chance agreement more appropriately than kappa and is regarded as a more useful measurement for assessing inter-observer agreement, especially when prevalence is small...
  44. pmc Optimal design of intervention studies to prevent influenza in healthy cohorts
    Brendan Klick
    Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People s Republic of China
    PLoS ONE 7:e35166. 2012
    ..Influenza infections and illnesses can be identified through a number of approaches with different costs and logistical requirements...
  45. doi Joint quantification of transmission dynamics and diagnostic accuracy applied to influenza
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4 1 8 Honcho Kawaguchi, Saitama 332 0012, Japan
    Math Biosci Eng 8:49-64. 2011
    ..Our study suggests that by consistently reporting both test positive and test negative cases, the usefulness of extractable information from routine surveillance record of infectious diseases would be maximized...
  46. pmc Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling: ensuring continued growth and future leadership
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Hongo 7 3 1, Bunkyo ku, Tokyo, Japan
    Theor Biol Med Model 10:43. 2013
    ....
  47. ncbi Rurality and pandemic influenza: geographic heterogeneity in the risks of infection and death in Kanagawa, Japan (1918-1919)
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    Theoretical Epidemiology, University of Utrecht, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL, Utrecht, The Netherlands
    N Z Med J 121:18-27. 2008
    ..To characterise the impact of rurality on the spread of pandemic influenza by exploring both the numbers of cases and deaths in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, from October 1918 to April 1919 inclusive...
  48. pmc Assortativity and the Probability of Epidemic Extinction: A Case Study of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1-2009)
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama 332 0012, Japan
    Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis 2011:194507. 2011
    ....
  49. doi Estimation of the incubation period of influenza A (H1N1-2009) among imported cases: addressing censoring using outbreak data at the origin of importation
    Hiroshi Nishiura
    PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama, Japan
    J Theor Biol 272:123-30. 2011
    ..When the data generating process is similar to that among imported cases, and when the incubation period is close to or shorter than the length of exposure, accounting for these aspects is critical for long exposure times...