Alison P Galvani

..We suggest that the enhancement of strain diversity, despite stochastic extinction of strains, may be critical to the evolutionary success of sex in long-lived parasites...

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..We relate our model and results to selection for disease resistance, although the results have broader implications for inferences about past selection pressures in general...

..Factors that may alter future estimates of case-fatality rates, reasons for heterogeneity in doubling times among countries, and implications for the control of SARS are discussed...

..By using a population genetic framework that takes into account the temporal pattern and age-dependent nature of specific diseases, we find that smallpox is more consistent with this historical role...

..Our results describe the evolutionary history of the Delta32 allele and establish a general methodology for studying the geographic distribution of selected alleles...

..The implications of our results for future emerging pathogens are discussed...

..If this hypothesis is correct, estimates of epidemiological parameters from field data and the potential for control of helminth diseases might require reevaluation...

..This provides a rigorous justification of the concept of "endemic stability," and demonstrates that folk-practices may have been historically justified...

..In summary, our model highlights the nonlinear dependence of an individual's best strategy on the preparedness of a response to a yellow fever outbreak or other emergent infectious disease...

..We modelled the plausible effect of rapidly available infection control strategies on the overall course of the XDR tuberculosis epidemic in a rural area of South Africa...

..Targeted allocation therefore poses significantly lower risk of adverse effects, while potentially delaying the emergence and spread of ivermectin resistance, relative to untargeted allocation...

..This research illustrates the importance of applying temporal models to an inherently temporal situation, namely, the time evolution of vaccine coverage in an informed population with a voluntary vaccination policy...

..Implications for the future trajectory of cystic fibrosis are discussed. Our result supports the importance of novel investigations into the role of arylsulphatase B deficiency in cystic fibrosis and tuberculosis...

..We also calculate approximate upper bounds for the rates of an epidemic's spatial spread. Guidelines are suggested for determining which limit is most appropriate for a specific disease...

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..Mutation accumulation may explain not only the decline in CD4+T cells, but also the functional deterioration of CD4+T cells, CD8+T cells and B cells, and the exhaustion of lymphocyte regeneration...

..We also discuss parallel evolution that has occurred at the CCR5 locus of other primate species. Finally, we highlight the promise that therapies based on interfering with the CCR5 receptor could have in the treatment of HIV...

..Thus we show that conflict can arise between the epidemiological benefits of treatment and the evolutionary risks of heightened virulence...

..Insofar as point-process models are accurate representations of real spatial biological systems, our example also supports the view that network models are realistic representations of space...

..If natural infection provides greater cross-immunity than vaccination, vaccination may expand available niche space up to 470-fold. The balance of epidemiologic data suggests vaccination will reduce the available niche space...