Darius Lakdawalla

..To forecast growth in the US nursing home population, as a function of trends in disability and marriage...

..In contrast, publicly financing reductions in consumer prices, without affecting manufacturer prices, delivers benefits in virtually all plausible cases...

..On the other hand, ten of the most promising medical technologies are forecast to increase spending greatly. It is unlikely that a "silver bullet" will emerge to both improve health and dramatically reduce medical spending...

..Finally, we show that the cost-reducing effects of price controls increase the longer they remain in place...

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..Whatever its sources, rising disability among the young could have adverse consequences for public programs such as disability insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid...

..Medicare will spend about 34 percent more on an obese person than on someone of normal weight. Obesity might cost Medicare more than other diseases, because higher costs are not offset by reduced longevity...

..This research is within NIOSH's NORA priority area of the Social and Economic Consequences of Workplace Injuries and Illnesses...

..Finally, we will rely on malpractice costs in obstetrics as a factor correlated with malpractice risk faced by surgeons, but not with the technologies they choose to use to treat heart patients. ..