Neff Walker

..The objective of this paper was to analyse the quality of HIV/AIDS sentinel surveillance systems in countries and the resulting quality of the data used to make estimates of HIV/AIDS prevalence and mortality...

..We investigated this assumption by estimating HIV-attributable under-5 mortality in 39 countries in sub-Saharan Africa and comparing it to total mortality in children younger than 5 years between 1990 and 1999...

..The paper also discusses the limitations and weaknesses of the procedures and the data used to make the estimates, and suggests areas where further improvements need to be made...

..There is a need to improve data collection and introduce new tools to monitor behavior trends and the impact of interventions...

..The mid-2005 estimate of 970,000 people receiving ART in low- and middle-income countries (with an uncertainty range 840,000-1,100,000) corresponds to a coverage of 15% of people in need of treatment...

..The potential advantages and disadvantages of targeted versus universal vaccination will have to be considered...

..The paper also discusses the strengths and weakness to this approach to making estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics...

..In most countries, however, insufficient use is made of the information generated by these systems in terms of strengthening HIV prevention and care programs...

..It also provides an example of using the EPP in a country with a generalised epidemic. The paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the software and its envisaged future developments...

..To examine the quality of HIV sero-surveillance systems in countries by 2002, as well as trends between 1995 and 2002...

..In their Perspective, Schwartländer and his colleagues discuss the newly released statistics and the strategies needed to combat the further spread of HIV/AIDS and to reduce prevalence in the most severely affected countries...

..Nothing less than a sustained social mobilization is necessary to combat one of the most serious crises facing human development...

..International donors and leaders of developing countries should be held accountable for meeting their commitments and increasing resources...

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..Thus, greater spending on prevention now would not only prevent more than half the new infections that would occur from 2005 to 2015 but would actually produce a net financial saving as future costs for treatment and care are averted...

..In most of the 19 countries with similar estimates, blood donations came primarily from replacement donors. Our analysis suggests that blood donors are usually not a good proxy for the general population...

..Analyses suggest that if the successes achieved in some countries in prevention of transmission can be expanded to a global scale by 2005, about 29 million new infections could be prevented by 2010...

..Reducing adult mortality from causes other than AIDS brings the model estimates into close agreement with the surveys. This suggests that the fraction of orphans attributable to AIDS is greater than estimated previously...

..We explain the reason for moving to the use of plausibility bounds, the factors that determine the width of the bounds, and the implications for policy makers and programme managers...

..Estimations of the burden of HIV is a continuous process and should be updated on a regular basis according to the most recent and relevant information available...

..Simultaneous expansion of clinical care for babies and mothers is essential to achieve the reduction in neonatal deaths needed to meet the Millennium Development Goal for child survival...

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..In 2006, a new maternal mortality working group was established to develop improved estimation methods and make new estimates of maternal mortality for 2005, and to analyse trends in maternal mortality since 1990...

..A common framework and standardised methods, building on the work of Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) and others, are urgently needed...

..This is at least four times current funding and should be a priority topic for donor and national government resource allocation decisions this year...

..To assess the accuracy of demographic estimates that include the effects of HIV/AIDS on adult mortality...

..In this paper, we quantify the opportunities and potential risks of large-scale treatment roll-out...

..The prevention of HIV and TB, the extension of WHO DOTS programs, and a focused effort to control HIV-related TB in areas of high HIV prevalence are matters of great urgency...

..This paper details the methods and assumptions used to estimate HIV/AIDS health care financial needs and it discusses the limitations and data needs for this model...